Super Bowl Futures Picks Ahead Of Week 8: Buy Low On The Niners
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Super Bowl Futures Picks Ahead Of Week 8: Buy Low On The Niners

Kody Malstrom breaks down a handful of Super Bowl futures picks to add to your portfolio ahead of Week 8's kickoff.

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In the blink of an eye, we are already nearing the halfway point of the season. While some teams have risen, others have started to falter, narrowing the field of contenders capable of winning the Super Bowl. This week’s edition highlights one of the top teams in the league at a mispriced number while shedding some light on a pair of competitors in the AFC.

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Super Bowl Futures Picks - Week 8

If you are new to this biweekly column, the goal is to build a portfolio that will lock in a profit no matter which team wins the Super Bowl.

San Francisco 49ers (+650, FanDuel)

When at full health, the San Francisco 49ers have been in a tier of their own, leading the NFL in DVOA. Brock Purdy’s ascension has turned San Francisco’s offense into a well-oiled machine, with the 49ers signal caller rivaling Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen at the top of the board in QB EPA per play.

Not only has the offense been firing on all cylinders, but the defense has finally given the 49ers the production the team needs to be a well-rounded unit, making it easier to avoid playing in highly volatile contests, which increases the probability of winning on a weekly basis. While the front seven has struggled to stop opposing RBs from cutting the distance to gain in half, the back end has fared far better against the pass, ranking eighth in dropback EPA allowed per play.

Fresh off a loss to the Atlanta Falcons, the 49ers' odds of winning the Super Bowl have steadily dipped, creating a buy point before positive regression swings their way. While it’s normally wise to avoid betting on the top contenders, at +650, there is still some meat left on the bone with FTN projecting the 49ers to win the Super Bowl at 23.8%, which is roughly +320. Back the 49ers at the current number before the odds continue to plummet.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+1400, BetMGM)

Even when on a bye, the Jacksonville Jaguars continue to win. Not only did they have the opportunity to rest, but Houston was unable to close the gap between the two in the AFC South after losing to the New York Giants as -10.5 favorites.

Turning our attention back toward Jacksonville, the Jags have quietly been one of the more well-rounded teams in the league, entering Week 8 ranked in the top-10 in weighted EPA per play on both sides of the ball.

With Jacksonville possessing one of the more favorable remaining schedules, the Jags will have a great opportunity to compete for the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC, giving them a massive advantage in the playoffs to help spark a run to the Super Bowl.

Cincinnati Bengals (+1900, FanDuel)

Like the Jags, the Cincinnati Bengals have also quietly hovered near the top of the board in EPA on both sides of the ball, drastically reducing the amount of variance in the contests to help pull away on the scoreboard. The addition of Dexter Lawrence has helped turn the Bengals defense into a competitive unit, with the star DT anchoring a front seven that ranks ninth in rush success rate.

On the other side of the ball, Joe Burrow has started to get into a groove while climbing into the top half of the board in QB EPA per play and in CPOE. With the schedule opening up in the second half, expect the Bengals to keep pace with the rest of the AFC and compete for the No. 1 overall seed. FTN has Cincinnati projected to win the Super Bowl at 8.6%, making the Bengals worth a wager at +1100 or better.

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