2026 NFL Draft Prop Bets: The Value Is On Carnell Tate Falling

There are plenty of ways to get down action with NFL Draft prop bets, but player draft position over/unders should be your bread and butter. While betting on long shots is undoubtedly more fun—and can be profitable if done correctly—draft position over/unders should make up the majority of your portfolio. Think of the long shots as same-game parlays, while the over/unders are your traditional wagers.

Today, I want to dive into four different players I have positions on in the market. These prices all come from DraftKings Sportsbook, but there are plenty of different locations where you can find action. If draft props aren’t available at the major sportsbooks in your state, I suggest checking out the prediction markets.

2026 NFL Draft Position Over/Under Player Props To Bet

Jeremiyah Love Under 5.5 (-165)

I’ve been on the Love train for months now, and I think there is a very good chance that he hears his name called at pick No. 4. The Titans need to do everything possible to try to help second-year quarterback Cam Ward, and giving him a reliable running game would be a nice start.

In a perfect world, the Titans would pair Ward with an elite receiver or offensive line prospect. However, none of the players available at those positions really fit that description in the 2026 class. That makes Love the best available option. Some people view him as the best overall player in this class, and he’s undoubtedly the best player on the offensive side of the ball.

Love doesn’t have the same eye-popping collegiate production as Ashton Jeanty did last year, but he’s arguably the superior prospect. He faced a tougher level of competition at Notre Dame, and he still averaged 6.9 yards per carry in both years as a starter. Love added 40 total touchdowns over the past two seasons and ran a blistering 4.36-second 40-yard dash at the combine. With prototypical RB size, Love is just the fourth running back in the past 20 years to weigh at least 212 pounds and run a 4.36 or better.

The NFL is starting to shift back towards the run, so the idea of using a top-four pick on a running back doesn’t feel as taboo as it would have just a few years ago. If the Titans do pass on Love at four, there’s still a chance the Giants or someone else snags him with pick No. 5.

Sonny Styles Over 5.5 (-115)

It seems as though there is a pretty set top four for the 2026 NFL. Fernando Mendoza is going to go first overall, and the Jets will take either David Bailey or Arvell Reese at No. 2. After that, whoever is left between Bailey and Reese should go third overall, while Love at No. 4 feels pretty safe. That leaves just one pick remaining for Styles to go in the top five.

There is certainly a chance that the Giants take Styles with the fifth pick. He’s one of the freakiest athletes in the class, and Gene Clemons describes him as a “wingspan monster” who never has to come off the field. He can cover tight ends and running backs in the passing game and impact the run game, both of which have value in the modern NFL.

That said, it is a rarity to see an off-ball linebacker go this early without elite pass-rush skills. Styles had just one sack in his final collegiate season.

It’s possible that a team views him as a Micah Parsons 2.0 and tries to convert him into a pass rusher at the NFL level. However, Parsons didn’t come off the board until the 12th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Matthew Freedman currently has the Giants selecting Styles with the fifth pick in his latest NFL mock draft, but I think they’re more likely to go with someone on the offensive side of the ball. Getting another receiver or offensive lineman to help out Jaxson Dart makes more sense than drafting an outlier linebacker. I’ll take the value with over 5.5.

Carnell Tate Over 7.5 (+200)

Speaking of value, getting +200 on Tate to land outside the first seven picks feels like a decent roll of the dice. We’ve seen plenty of receivers go early in the draft in recent years, but Tate doesn’t seem like that level of prospect. He never had more than 875 receiving yards in a season at Ohio State, and he was never even the team’s No. 1 option. Part of that stems from the level of teammates he’s had to compete with, but is that really a player you want to spend a top-seven pick on?

Tate has emerged as the de facto top receiver prospect in this class, but that’s far from a slam-dunk. Makai Lemon and Jordyn Tyson also have their supporters, and it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see either player come off the board before him.

The current odds suggest that Tate is a heavy favorite to go inside the top seven, and that is probably his most likely outcome. However, I think there are also plenty of scenarios that see him land at pick No. 8 or later.

Ty Simpson Over 24.5 (-275)

One of the biggest question marks in this draft is when the second quarterback will come off the board. We know Mendoza is going first, but he might be the only quarterback who gets his named called on night one.

Simpson is the No. 2 prospect at the position by default. That’s not entirely fair to him. He was excellent in the first half of his lone season as the full-time Alabama starter before an injury derailed the second half of his campaign. Matthew Freedman has him at No. 35 overall on his NFL Draft Big Board, with Garrett Nussmeier checking in third at the position at No. 85 overall.

With quarterbacks, it only takes one team to fall in love with you to go earlier than expected. However, does that team exist in 2026? There aren’t a ton of teams that seem to be in the market for a quarterback at the moment. The Jets, Cardinals and Steelers are three of the biggest examples, but the Jets seem pretty content to punt the 2026 season and look to address the position in 2027. The Steelers are expected to go with Aaron Rodgers for at least one more year, so they’re not exactly desperate either.

The Cardinals make the most sense as a destination, and they pick 34th overall. That feels like the ideal landing spot for Simpson. Even if the Cardinals want to trade into the first round to take Simpson (and add the fifth-year team option to his contract), they likely don’t have to move up too much. Getting into one of the final few picks of the first round should suffice, so -275 on Over 24.5 feels like a good deal.