2026 NFL Cap Casualties: Joe Mixon Headlines Potential Cut Candidates
NFL

2026 NFL Cap Casualties: Joe Mixon Headlines Potential Cut Candidates

Ian Hartitz goes position by position to look at potential cut candidates based on salary cap savings in the 2026 NFL offseason.

Recently, I overheard some of America's youth discussing the NFL salary cap and players who, for a variety of mostly performance- and contract-related reasons, could be released this offseason.

Well, whenever I need to know anything about NFL-related contracts and the league salary cap, I go to Over The Cap! And lo and behold, they published their top 100 possible cut candidates earlier this year—and the list included 29 total QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs.

This brings us to today's goal to, you know, support America's youth and all that: Looking at how potential cap casualty dominoes might fall and accordingly change the way we collectively live our lives (or at least think about the upcoming fantasy football season).

Below is a note on how much each team would inherit in dead money (bad!) vs. save against the cap (good!) in their best-case pre- or (almost always) post-June 1 cut (not trade) scenario of these potential cap casualties. These are ordered from the most cap savings to the least after a possible release. Cool? Cool.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Six Potential Cap Casualties At The Quarterback Position

Each of the first five will seemingly be more personal team decisions that don't need to be made due to a mixture of readily available cap space (Jets, Cardinals, Broncos), along with reasonable backup-level deals to the most exciting quarterback alive and Jameis Winston.

And then there's Watson … who might be a legit candidate to start for the Browns in 2026? Maybe I was a victim of the moment, but I felt like I had seen Watson play his last NFL snap when he tore his Achilles in Cleveland on October 20, 2024. And yet, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported in December that Watson is expected to be on the team's 2026 roster.

Bad news for Browns fans aside: None of these potential casualties really move the needle and look like realistic Week 1 starters—or at least ones that a fanbase would be happy about having under center (again, with the obvious exception of Andy Dalton).

All that said, there are a couple of prime trade candidates:

  • Cardinals QB Kyler Murray: Unceremoniously benched after putting up career-worst passing efficiency numbers during his first five starts of 2025. While Murray never managed to build off his early-career success, he's 28 years young and is probably still a top-25-ish QB on the planet.
  • Raiders QB Geno Smith: Was a disaster in Las Vegas … but so was everything? Even if Smith wasn't exactly a world-beater while leading the Seahawks from 2022 to 2024, he did put up anyone's idea of solid passing numbers—something that perhaps could be brought back inside of a better overall offensive environment.
  • Colts QB Anthony Richardson: Has the sort of natural talent to likely get a second chance outside of Indianapolis. 24 in May, the problem for Richardson has always been experience—here's to hoping the former fourth overall pick gets better luck from the Injury Gods wherever he winds up next.
  • 49ers QB Mac Jones: Possibly THE most coveted QB on the trade market, Jones' performance in relief of Brock Purdy this season had some unironically clamoring for the ex-Patriot to be the 49ers' new starter. Of course, San Fran could simply decide they're happy having a plus backup on their roster again in 2026.
  • Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa: Finished third, third and fourth in EPA per dropback from 2022 to 2024 … before cratering to 30th in 2025. Tua's limited physical ability won't make him a fit for everyone, but it's not like there are too many available QBs who have strung together that sort of success in the recent past.
  • Falcons QB Kirk Cousins: Looked far more mobile and better overall in his limited 2025 action after a porous 2024. 38 next August, Cousins' best seasons of his career are certainly in the rear-view mirror, but that doesn't mean he can't help some squad out there as a calming veteran/bridge starter.

Assuming the three Week 1 starters listed above are indeed on their way out, the top-six QB-needy teams sure seem to be the Raiders, Jets, Steelers, Browns, Cardinals and Dolphins. We will wait and see how these cookies crumble!

Eight Running Backs Who Are Potential Cap Casualties In 2026

That's seven starting running backs potentially entering a free agency class that is already pretty fooking stacked with guys like Kenneth Walker, Breece Hall, Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams and more!

Now, the Jacobs move would be pretty surprising considering his raw counting numbers (2,882 total yards, 30 TDs) during the past two seasons, although some of the involved advanced metrics don't paint as pretty a picture. With backups Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks both restricted free agents, moving on from the soon-to-be 28-year-old veteran would prompt a massive change inside the Green Bay backfield.

Elsewhere, there could be a clearer successor capable of immediately providing newfound fantasy excellence in several of these situations should these releases come to fruition:

  • Saints RB … Jeremiyah Love?: That's what Fantasy Life's Matthew Freedman had in his latest mock draft anyway! The Notre Dame product is ELECTRIC with the football in his hands—my current comp for Love is the guitar riff from the song Money for Nothing.
  • Texans RB Woody Marks: Ranked among the league's worst running backs in most efficiency metrics, although the Texans' lackluster offensive line certainly deserves some of the blame there. Still, it'd be surprising if Houston didn't make a meaningful addition here should they ultimately decide to move on from Joe Mixon.
  • Vikings RB Jordan Mason: Quietly made the most out of his opportunities in Minnesota, working as one of just six RBs to average more than a yard over expected per carry in 2025. Removing Aaron Jones from the equation could position Mason for 15-plus touches in a (hopefully) ascending offense.
  • Cardinals RB Trey Benson: Has struggled to stay healthy during his short career and will need to earn the approval of a new coaching staff. Still, the 23-year-old talent would be the expected next-man-up should Arizona move on from James Conner.
  • Bears RB Kyle Monangai: It'd be pretty shocking if the Bears got rid of D'Andre Swift and did NOT add a meaningful replacement, but what if it was even more of a pure pass-down back like Kenneth Gainwell or Jerome Ford? That would position Monangai as the clear lead rusher of the NFL's reigning ninth-ranked scoring offense.
  • Titans RB Tyjae Spears: Similar to Benson, Spears would have to be in the good graces of the Titans' new coaching staff to benefit from the decision to cut ties with Pollard. However, we actually have seen some tantalizing flashes from Spears during his short career—nobody was better at making defenders miss in space last season.
     

Five Wide Receiver Cap Casualty Candidates For 2026

Most inevitable: Hill's release. The 31-year-old veteran dislocated his knee and tore multiple ligaments last September and was already making a habit of voicing his displeasure with the organization the previous offseason. Throw in a new coaching staff and the reality that the Dolphins have the league's fourth-fewest cap space to work with, and the Cheetah should be on the prowl in free agency sooner rather than later.

Could stick around, but probably not: Maybe Ridley hangs with the Titans for another year, given Tennessee has the league's most available cap space, but it's also possible (and probably likely) the new coaching staff and general manager don't view the 31-year-old veteran as a key component of this new-look offense.  

Should be good to go: Rams head coach Sean McVay has already said he "absolutely" expects Adams to return to the Rams next season. And why not? The 33-year-old longtime baller caught 14 TDs in 14 regular-season games during his first year in Los Angeles.

We shall see: Mooney was pretty awesome during his first season with the Falcons (64-992-5 in 16 games), but a broken collarbone in late July and later hamstring injury largely made the ex-Bear a shell of himself in 2025 (32-443-1 in 15 games). At his best, Mooney is a quality No. 2 or No. 3 WR capable of creating separation and big plays on the outside, but it's not a given that Kevin Stefanski and company view the 28-year-old receiver as a staple of their new-look offense. We'll also throw Demarcus Robinson in this category—the 31-year-old veteran is just one season removed from a quietly solid 31-505-7 campaign with the Rams, to be fair.

Otherwise, there seem to be three potential big trade candidates at the position.

  • Eagles WR A.J. Brown: Certainly didn't seem to be enjoying himself in Philly last season. The logistics of his contract don't seem overly great when looking at a potential trade, although those details could be perhaps re-worked. The best potential landing spot here certainly seems to be a reunion with Mike Vrabel in New England. Old pal Derrick Henry also seems interested.
  • 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk: Could be released instead of traded. Either way, Aiyuk's time in San Fran is almost certainly over, which is a shame considering just how damn good the man was pre-2024. Maybe we'll see Aiyuk finally get his wish and link back up with former Arizona State teammate Jayden Daniels in Washington.
  • Cowboys WR George Pickens: Almost certainly won't hit free agency considering the likelihood the Cowboys either figure out a long-term deal or (probably more likely) slap the franchise tag on him. Maybe Pickens is fine with this process … or maybe he won't be! Who knows, but 24-year-old receivers coming off a 93-1,429-9 season don't hit the open market, so failure to figure things out in Dallas could quickly make the ex-Steeler the most coveted player at the position in dem trade streets. Any offense would be better with Pickens' services, although I'd especially like to see the Titans or Raiders try to get Cam Ward or Fernando Mendoza a legit alpha No. 1 WR should the opportunity present itself.

10 Tight Ends Could Be 2026 Cap Casualties

A lot is going on here in our busiest group. I've accordingly bucketed our analysis into three groups …

Potential newfound starting roles? (T.J. Hockenson, Dalton Schultz, Hunter Henry, Evan Engram, Tommy Tremble): The Patriots, Broncos, and Panthers have enough cap space to presumably keep their incumbent lead tight ends; none are exactly "must cut" players when looking at the dead money and savings involved anyway.

A similar sentiment can't quite be said for Hockenson and the Vikings (second-least cap space), as well as Schultz and the Texans (11th-least cap space):

  • Hockenson averaged a career-low 29.2 receiving yards per game on a putrid 8.6 yards per reception last season and simply doesn't profile as a staple of this offense as long as Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are leading the way.
  • Schultz feels like he has a slightly better chance of hanging around after bouncing back in 2025 following a down 2024, although the Texans do have a capable group of backups between Cade Stover, Harrison Bryant and Brevin Jordan.

Oh, this could be GOOD for that other guy currently splitting snaps (Dawson Knox, Cole Kmet, Colby Parkinson): The Bills and Bears are both in the red when it comes to current 2026 cap space, which could perhaps compel them to part ways with their veteran tight ends and lean into the Dalton Kincaid and Colston Loveland experiences at more of a full-time level. Both worked among the league's most efficient pass catchers at the position last year and would vie for top-5 fantasy treatment with a secured full-time role (Loveland will probably be ranked that high regardless).

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And then there's Parkinson, who came alive down the stretch of last season with a whopping 9 TDs across his final 12 games. The massive human (6-foot-7, 266 pounds) was a key part of the Rams' multi-TE-heavy scheme and just turned 27 in January. With Tyler Higbee entering free agency and the league's eighth-most available cap space, it doesn't really make much sense for the Rams to release Parkinson … but, oh buddy, would the Terrance Ferguson hype train reach another level if they did!

Respectfully, whatever (Charlie Woerner, Will Dissly): Respectfully, whatever.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Joe Mixon
    JoeMixonQ
    RBHOUHOU
  2. Jameis Winston
    JameisWinston
    QBNYGNYG
    PPG
    14.93
  3. Andy Dalton
    AndyDalton
    QBPHIPHI
    PPG
    2.63
  4. Aaron Jones
    AaronJones
    RBMINMIN
    PPG
    8.56