NFL Mock Draft: David Bailey Jumps Into The Top Five

The NFL scouting combine started yesterday (Feb. 23) and goes all the way to next Monday (Mar. 2).

Here's the schedule for the on-field workouts for the various positions.

Thu., Feb. 26: DLs, LBs, Ks (haha)
Fri., Feb. 27: DBs, TEs
Sat., Feb. 28: QBs, WRs, RBs
Sun., Mar. 1: OLs

I've never been so excited, and that means it's time to update my mock draft.

I'm not one to brag, but …

For the 2025 draft, I was No. 1 in big board accuracy and No. 3 in mock accuracy. Since 2020, I'm the No. 1 mocker in the known universe.

For all of our draft coverage, check out our Fantasy Life NFL Draft Hub.

2026 First Round NFL Mock Draft

Pick	Team	Player	School	Position	Other Needs
1	LV	Fernando Mendoza	Indiana	QB	NA
2	NYJ	Arvell Reese	Ohio State	EDGE	QB
3	ARI	Francis Mauigoa	Miami	OT	EDGE
4	TEN	David Bailey	Texas Tech	EDGE	WR
5	NYG	Carnell Tate	Ohio State	WR	OT, S
6	CLE	Spencer Fano	Utah	OT	WR
7	WAS	Rueben Bain	Miami	EDGE	LB, CB
8	NO	Jeremiyah Love	Notre Dame	RB	WR, EDGE
9	KC	Keldric Faulk	Auburn	EDGE	RB, DT, WR
10	CIN	Caleb Downs	Ohio State	S	DT, LB, CB
11	MIA	Mansoor Delane	LSU	CB	WR, OT, EDGE
12	DAL	Sonny Styles	Ohio State	LB	CB, EDGE, S, WR
13	LAR	Jermod McCoy	Tennessee	CB	OT, WR
14	BAL	Cashius Howell	Texas A&M	EDGE	DT, G, WR
15	TB	Akheem Mesidor	Miami	EDGE	LB, TE
16	NYJ	Jordyn Tyson	Arizona State	WR	QB, EDGE
17	DET	Caleb Lomu	Utah	OT	EDGE, G
18	MIN	Emmanuel McNeil-Warren	Toledo	S	CB, DT
19	CAR	Peter Woods	Clemson	DT	EDGE, LB, OT, TE
20	DAL	Avieon Terrell	Clemson	CB	EDGE, LB, S, WR
21	PIT	Makai Lemon	USC	WR	QB, CB
22	LAC	Olaivavega Ioane	Penn State	G	DT, EDGE
23	PHI	Kenyon Sadiq	Oregon	TE	OT, EDGE, CB
24	CLE	Denzel Boston	Washington	WR	OT
25	CHI	Kayden McDonald	Ohio State	DT	EDGE, S
26	BUF	Kevin Concepcion	Texas A&M	WR	EDGE, LB, S
27	SF	Kadyn Proctor	Alabama	OT	WR, DT, TE
28	HOU	Caleb Banks	Florida	DT	OT, EDGE
29	KC	Monroe Freeling	Georgia	OT	RB, DT, WR
30	DEN	CJ Allen	Georgia	LB	EDGE, WR
31	NE	T.J. Parker	Clemson	EDGE	OT, LB, DT
32	SEA	Colton Hood	Tennessee	CB	EDGE, DT, WR

NFL Mock Draft Analysis

As we get closer to the draft, I'll provide pick-by-pick analysis in my mocks. For now, here are some general thoughts.

Notable Mock-to-Mock Changes

My top 10 is the same, except I now have David Bailey firmly ahead of Rueben Bain at EDGE. That means I've switched Bailey and Bain at Nos. 4 & 7.
No. 14: Last mock, I had the Ravens going DT. Now, EDGE. Either way, I expect them to address DL.
No. 17: I had the Lions with EDGE last mock. This one, OT. Honestly, I think it's a coinflip.
No. 19: Last iteration, the Panthers went TE. Here, DT. They have so many needs that almost any position would make sense.
No. 23: I now have the Eagles going TE. Last mock, OT. In truth, OT feels like the bigger need, but I need to put TE Kenyon Sadiq somewhere.

EDGEs Are Mocked Higher Than Consensus

The elite strength of this class is EDGE, and I think we'll see a run on the position for two main reasons.

It's almost impossible for a team to have too many EDGEs.
EDGEs can have a sizable impact in any given game.

What this means is that I'm relatively high on EDGEs Keldric Faulk (No. 9), Cashius Howell (No. 14) and Akheem Mesidor (No. 15).

Big picture: Right now, I have six EDGEs mocked in the top 15.

WRs Are Mocked Lower Than Consensus

The depth of this class is at WR … but all of the top WRs in the class are flawed, which means that teams have diminished incentive to take WRs higher in Round 1 when they can get similar players they might like more at cost in Rounds 2-3.

And that means I'm relatively low on WRs Jordyn Tyson (No. 16) and Makai Lemon (No. 21).

2026 Mock Draft Methodology

Here's an outline of my mock process.

Identify the 32 players most likely to go in Round 1.
Order players correctly within their position groups.
Match teams with positions of need.
Attempt to mock players within their likely draft ranges.

I think of this process as if it's a puzzle.

First, I settle on the individual pieces to assemble, and then I try to put them together to create a reasonable-looking picture. I always know the final product will be more Picasso than Realism: Jagged, distorted and just maybe a little bit genius.

No trades: I don't like stacking randomness on top of chaos. A tradeless mock isn't realistic, but it might be more accurate. Plus, I think for the past half-decade, people have tended to overestimate the number of trades that will actually happen in Round 1.

"Must Include" Prospects in Round 1

So much will change over the next few weeks (and months), but right now, here are the 24 players (12 offense, 12 defense) I feel I must include in current mock iterations.

I think they all have an 80% chance (or better) to go in Round 1 (unless something drastically changes between now and the draft).

QB: Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)
RB: Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
WR: Carnell Tate (Ohio State), Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State), Makai Lemon (USC), Denzel Boston (Washington)
TE: Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)
OT: Francis Mauigoa (Miami), Spencer Fano (Utah), Caleb Lomu (Utah), Kadyn Proctor (Alabama)
OG: Olaivavega Ioane (Penn State)
EDGE: Arvell Reese (Ohio State), David Bailey (Texas Tech), Rueben Bain (Miami), Keldric Faulk (Auburn), Cashius Howell (Texas A&M), Akheem Mesidor (Miami)
DT: Peter Woods (Clemson)
LB: Sonny Styles (Ohio State), CJ Allen (Georgia)
CB: Mansoor Delane (LSU), Jermod McCoy (Tennessee)
S: Caleb Downs (Ohio State)

If not for his season-ending ACL tear, I also would've included WR Chris Bell (Louisville) on this list, but now—like CBs Benjamin Morrison and Shavon Revel last year—he will probably fall to Day 2 due to injury.

"Want to Include" Prospects for Round 1

After the aforementioned players, here are six other guys I definitely want in Round 1 (as of now).

WR: Kevin "KC" Concepcion (Texas A&M)
OT: Monroe Freeling (Georgia)
DT: Kayden McDonald (Ohio State)
CB: Avieon Terrell (Clemson), Colton Hood (Tennessee)
S: Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (Toledo)

Over the past few weeks, Concepcion, McDonald and Terrell have all dropped from my "must include" to my "want to include" cohort, while Freeling, McNeil-Warren and Hood have jumped up from my "borderline" group.

As always, player evaluation and sentiment are in flux.

With Concepcion, other WRs have risen up the ranks to challenge him.

Freeling plays a premium position, and he has received enough hype over the past month that I feel comfortable including him in mocks now, almost as a matter of course.

McDonald plays a position that tends to be devalued.

Regarding Terrell and Hood: CB is such an idiosyncratic position. Man vs. zone. Perimeter vs. slot. Size. Speed. Arm length. We'll know more about how the guys in this position rank relative to each other after their on-field workouts and athletic tests. I've dropped Terrell down into this tier because I increasingly think he's a slot-only prospect. I've bumped Hood up into this tier because of his strong Senior Bowl showing.

McNeil-Warren has gotten a ton of hype over the past month, so much so that I now feel as if I "must" include him in mocks even though I don't fully want to. Here's the issue: The S position tends to be devalued in the draft. As much as I think he belongs in the top 10, I'm skeptical we'll actually see S Caleb Downs go that high—and so I feel especially uncertain about putting another S in Round 1. But for now, I'm giving McNeil-Warren a spot.

Borderline Prospects for Round 1

All of this leaves me with two more spots available in Round 1.

Here are my top 15 candidates to fill those spots.

QB: Ty Simpson (Alabama)
WR: Chris Brazzell (Tennessee), Zachariah Branch (Georgia), Omar Cooper (Indiana), Malachi Fields (Notre Dame)
OT: Blake Miller (Clemson), Max Iheanachor (Arizona State)
OG: Emmanuel Pregnon (Oregon)
EDGE: T.J. Parker (Clemson), Zion Young (Missouri), R. Mason Thomas (Oklahoma)
DT: Caleb Banks (Florida), Lee Hunter (Texas Tech)
CB: Brandon Cisse (South Carolina)
S: Dillon Thieneman (Oregon)

Most mocks have Simpson locked into Round 1 (usually going to the Jets, Steelers or Rams), but I don't think he belongs in the top 32.

For a first-year starter, Simpson was good last year (3,567 yards, 28 TDs, 5 INTs on a 64.5% completion rate, 90-93-2 rushing in 15 starts). He looked the way one would want a former five-star recruit to look early in his career—but that's the problem with Simpson: He didn't earn the starting job until he was a redshirt junior, and as an NFL rookie, he'll be 24 years old. In retrospect, it's concerning that two different coaching staffs named Jalen Milroe the starter over him in the 2023-24 seasons.

On top of that, Simpson has only modest size (6-2, 208 pounds). His rushing ability is almost nonexistent. His arm strength is average. His accuracy, judgment and technique disappear under pressure. And his play fell off in the second half of the season (6.5 AY/A in Games 8-15 vs. 10.3 in Games 1-7).

I'm planting a red flag here. I don't think he belongs in Round 1. I eventually might capitulate and put him back in my mock—but my relatively bold prediction for now is that Simpson will fall to Day 2.

So who am I putting in Round 1?

Parker and Banks were in my "must include" group just a few weeks ago, but I've since dropped them into my borderline assembly. I think they belong in the top 32, but Parker is now behind Mesidor and Banks is behind McDonald, and that puts them on the margins of Round 1.