2026 NFL Mock Draft: Arvell Reese To The Jets At No. 2

With the conclusion of Super Bowl 60, the 2025-26 football season is officially over.

NFL Draft season has officially begun.

What does that mean?

• Feb. 17 - Mar. 3: Franchise/transition tag period
• Feb. 23 - Mar. 2: NFL Scouting Combine
• March 11: New league year/free agency starts

Football might be over, but the next month will still keep us busy.

And that means it's time to update my mock draft.

I'm not one to brag, but …

For the 2025 draft, I was No. 1 in big board accuracy and No. 3 in mock accuracy. Since 2020, I'm the No. 1 mocker in the known universe.

For all of our draft coverage, check out our Fantasy Life NFL Draft Hub.

NFL Mock Draft 2026 - The First Round

The 2026 NFL Draft order is set.

2026 Mock Draft Methodology

Here's an outline of my mock process.

1. Identify the 32 players most likely to go in Round 1.
2. Order players correctly within their position groups.
3. Match teams with positions of need.
4. Attempt to mock players within their likely draft ranges.

I think of this process as if it's a puzzle. 

First, I settle on the individual pieces to assemble, and then I try to put them together to create a reasonable-looking picture. I always know the final product will be more Picasso than Realism: Jagged, distorted and just maybe a little bit genius. 

No trades: I don't like stacking randomness on top of chaos. A tradeless mock isn't realistic, but it might be more accurate. Plus, I think for the past half-decade, people have tended to overestimate the number of trades that will actually happen in Round 1.

"Must Include" Prospects in Round 1

So much will change over the next few weeks (and months), but right now, here are the 24 players I feel I must include in current mock iterations.

I think they all have a 75% chance (or better) to go in Round 1 (unless something drastically changes between now and the draft).

• QB: Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)
• RB: Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
• WR: Carnell Tate (Ohio State), Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State), Makai Lemon (USC), Denzel Boston (Washington)
• TE: Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)
• OT: Francis Mauigoa (Miami), Spencer Fano (Utah), Kadyn Proctor (Alabama), Caleb Lomu (Utah)
• OG: Olaivavega Ioane (Penn State)
• EDGE: Arvell Reese (Ohio State), David Bailey (Texas Tech), Rueben Bain (Miami), Keldric Faulk (Auburn), Cashius Howell (Texas A&M)
• DT: Peter Woods (Clemson), Kayden McDonald (Ohio State)
• LB: Sonny Styles (Ohio State)
• CB: Jermod McCoy (Tennessee), Mansoor Delane (LSU), Avieon Terrell (Clemson)
• S: Caleb Downs (Ohio State)

If not for his season-ending ACL tear, I also would've included WR Chris Bell (Louisville) on this list, but now—like CBs Benjamin Morrison and Shavon Revel last year—he will probably fall to Day 2 due to injury.

"Want to Include" Prospects for Round 1

After the aforementioned players, here are the five remaining guys I definitely want in Round 1 (as of now).

• WR: Kevin "KC" Concepcion (Texas A&M)
• EDGE: Akheem Mesidor (Miami), T.J. Parker (Clemson)
• DT: Caleb Banks (Florida)
• LB: CJ Allen (Georgia)

Over the past few weeks, Concepcion, Banks and Allen have all dropped from my "must include" to my "want to include" cohort. I wouldn't say they're trending down. I think each one is likelier than not to end up in Round 1.

But I'm not as sold on their Day 1 status now as I was earlier in the process. Other WRs have risen up the ranks to challenge Concepcion, and Banks and Allen play positions that tend to be devalued.

Borderline Prospects for Round 1

All of this leaves me with three more spots available in Round 1.

Here are my top 15 candidates to fill those spots.

• QB: Ty Simpson (Alabama)
• WR: Zachariah Branch (Georgia), Chris Brazzell (Tennessee), Malachi Fields (Notre Dame)
• OT: Monroe Freeling (Georgia), Max Iheanachor (Arizona State), Gennings Dunker (Iowa)
• OG: Emmanuel Pregnon (Oregon)
• EDGE: Zion Young (Missouri), R. Mason Thomas (Oklahoma)
• DT: Lee Hunter (Texas Tech)
• CB: Brandon Cisse (South Carolina), Colton Hood (Tennessee)
• S: Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (Toledo), Dillon Thieneman (Oregon)

Most mocks have Simpson locked into Round 1 (usually going to the Jets, Steelers or Rams), but I simply don't think he belongs in the top 32. 

For a first-year starter, Simpson was good last year (3,567 yards, 28 TDs, 5 INTs on a 64.5% completion rate, 90-93-2 rushing in 15 starts). He looked the way one would want a former five-star recruit to look early in his career—but that's the problem with Simpson: He didn't earn the starting job until he was a redshirt junior, and as an NFL rookie, he'll be 24 years old. In retrospect, it's concerning that two different coaching staffs named Jalen Milroe the starter over him in the 2023-24 seasons.

On top of that, Simpson has only modest size (6-2, 208 pounds). His rushing ability is almost nonexistent. His arm strength is average. His accuracy, judgment and technique disappear under pressure. And his play fell off in the second half of the season (6.5 AY/A in Games 8-15 vs. 10.3 in Games 1-7).

I'm planting a flag here. I don't think he belongs in Round 1. I eventually might capitulate and put him back in my mock—but my relatively bold prediction for now is that Simpson will fall to Day 2.

So who am I putting in Round 1?

McNeil-Warren has gotten a ton of hype over the past few weeks, so I want to try out a version that has him in it. That said, the S position tends to be devalued in the draft. As much as I think he belongs in the top 10, I'm skeptical that we actually see S Caleb Downs go that high—so I feel especially uncertain about putting another S in Round 1.

But for now, I'm giving McNeil-Warren a spot—but it comes at the expense of Hood, who had been included in my past few iterations. At CB, he and Cisse are close, and after his Senior Bowl showing, Hood might jump Cisse as I have more time to compare them, but for now, I'm still giving Cisse the edge.

For the final spot, I'm slotting in Freeling. As we've seen throughout the NFL this season, what happens in the trenches matters. It's almost impossible for NFL teams to have too many good OLs.

NFL Mock Draft Analysis

As we get closer to the draft, I'll provide pick-by-pick analysis in my mocks. For now, here are some general thoughts.

The Top 10

The top 10 of my mock is fairly chalky, and I'm OK with that.

In terms of talent, I think almost everyone has at least these nine players (in some order) in the top 10.

• QB: Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)
• RB: Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
• WR: Carnell Tate (Ohio State)
• OT: Francis Mauigoa (Miami), Spencer Fano (Utah)
• EDGE: Arvell Reese (Ohio State), David Bailey (Texas Tech), Rueben Bain (Miami)
• S: Caleb Downs (Ohio State)

And then most of the teams in the top 10 have fairly defined needs, many of which match up fairly well with the high-end players available.

So I'm fine with the chalk—at least for now.

Quarterbacks

This is not the class that was promised.

In my way-too-early May 2025 mock, I had five QBs in Round 1.

• Arch Manning (Texas): Staying in school one more year.
• LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina): Returning to school.
• Drew Allar (Penn State): Season-ending ankle injury has impacted draft stock.
• Garrett Nussmeier (LSU): Benched midseason after struggling with abdominal injury, but had a good Senior Bowl week.
• Cade Klubnik (Clemson): Regressed in final season (8.4 AY/A as junior, 7.6 as senior).

This list is a reminder that no one knows anything. Not one of these guys is in my updated mock.

Based just on vibes, this class feels a little bit like the 2022 cohort (Kenny Pickett,  Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis). All three of them had hype, but only one landed in Round 1.

When we get to May and look back, I won't be surprised if we see just one QB in Round 1: Fernando Mendoza. (At least that's my early read right now.)

Check out my Fernando Mendoza scouting report.

With the exception of 2024 (I'm looking at you, Michael Penix and Bo Nix), QBs almost always go later than we expect.

Wide Receivers

The more I dig into this position, the more pleased I am with this year's WR class, but athletic testing will determine a lot. If a number of WRs tear up the combine, we could see six WRs go in Round 1, maybe more. And Day 2 could also be strong.

But if this class has modest pre-draft workouts, the number of WRs in the top 32 could drop to just two.

With five currently in my mock, I'm taking something of an optimistic view. All of the WRs have imperfections—but enough of them have Round 1 qualities.

Defensive Front Seven

This is the strength of the class. 

QB Fernando Mendoza is all but a lock to go No. 1 to the Raiders—but after him, I have four EDGEs going off the board in the top 10.

Is that aggressive?

Maybe—but this class is relatively bereft of no-doubt, blue-chip prospects, and in their absence, the players who check the most boxes this year are generally in the defensive front seven.

In total, I have seven EDGEs, three DTs and two LBs going in Round 1.

And that doesn't take into account the three additional DLs I have slated for the borderline of Rounds 1-2.

Offensive players are usually the guys who get most of the attention, but I expect Day 1 of the draft to be heavy on defensive contributors this year.

The No. 1 Pick in Dynasty Rookie Drafts

In superflex leagues, positional scarcity may push QBs up the board, but in non-SF formats, the No. 1 pick in dynasty rookie drafts is RB Jeremiyah Love.

He's just 20 years old, he won the 2025 Doak Walker Award as the top RB in college football, and over the past two seasons, he put up 3,014 yards and 40 TDs from scrimmage in 28 games.

With a three-down skill set and workhorse frame (6-0, 214 lbs.), Love could be one of the NFL's top backs as a rookie.

If he lands in a functional offense—unlike Ashton Jeanty this past year—he could reasonably draw Round 1 investment in fantasy drafts for season-long, best ball and Guillotine LeaguesTM. 

I currently have him mocked to the Saints at No. 8, but I strongly considered him to the Commanders at No. 7. I also thought about the Giants at No. 5 for half a second.

And the Cardinals last year were relying on a fifth-string RB by the end of the season. If they somehow talked themselves into Love at No. 3, it wouldn't be surprising. It's not probable, but with that organization, almost anything is imaginable.

Anything can happen in the draft, and RB isn't widely regarded as a premium position, but I'd be surprised if Love made it out of the top 10.

Four Teams Control the Draft

Attention always goes to the team with the No. 1 overall pick—and the Raiders are certainly intriguing—but I tend to think the franchises with multiple selections in Round 1 usually control the draft.

This year, we have four such teams: The Jets, Browns, Cowboys and Rams.

Each of these teams has key questions entering the postseason:

• Jets: Is there a QB who deserves to go at No. 2? (Answer: No.) If they think this is a class with only one viable QB, will they attempt to package their two picks to move up one spot?
• Browns: Do they believe that QB Shedeur Sanders is the guy? And if not, will there be a QB they like enough at No. 6? (Answer: Probably not.)
• Cowboys: They need help all over the defense. Do they invest both Round 1 picks on that side of the ball?
• Rams: Is now the time to find QB Matthew Stafford's eventual successor? Or do they look to fortify an already-strong roster with OT and CB reinforcements?

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