🤫 Sneaky Stacks to Target

Everyone’s in search of the perfect draft, while I just want a tilt-free one…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Epic Seats:

Adjusting Your Draft Strategy on the Fly
Going Mental with Cooterdoodle
The Fantasy Life website is here!
Fantasy-Friendly Offenses. Multiple Top-24 WRs?!
It’s 7/11. Take it away, Chris Allen…

While we don’t need to have an exact plan, correlating our rosters forces us into one. That said, having one stack on your radar isn’t enough in these streets. You’ll need schemes A through Z if you want to make it to the 18th round with a coherent roster.

Zero RB zealots will be grabbing all the WRs and the high-T drafters will be angling for RBs. Plus, every draft slot has its unique challenges. We can’t target the same players if we have the 1.01 spot versus the 1.10.

In essence, there isn’t a one-size-fits-all approach to drafting.

I found this out the hard way drafting from the 10-spot over the weekend.

After opening with CeeDee Lamb and Nick Chubb, getting DK Metcalf about a half round past his ADP was a blessing. And catching Tyler Lockett at cost? LFG - as the kids say. And with those two in place, Geno Smith was in my queue until the unthinkable happened…

Did I wake my dogs up doing an impression of Pete Overzet tilting? Maybe.

But I had to cram it all into 20 seconds, come up with a new strategy in less than 10, and keep it moving. It happens to us all.

So if you find yourself in a similar position, here are a couple of backdoor stacks you can pivot to when things (inevitably) don’t go your way.

⚒ Steelers’ Passing Attack

The ADPs of Pittsburgh’s offense were a double bonus for my then-uncorrelated Seattle receivers. With at least two core parts to their aerial attack available past the 9th round, their draft cost fits what most might be looking for if Plan A fails.

Dwain mentioned the Steelers as a team on the rise by Vegas team totals and, after I parsed some historic BBM data, Pat Freiermuth comes out as a TE I want more exposure to as we get closer to the season-opener. Plus, while we don’t consider Kenny Pickett a mobile QB, he had the eighth-most scrambles in just 13 games.

My Bengals’ fandom aside, Pittsburgh's offense has an underrated vibe to it, especially given their ADPs. If most of these guys are palatable one-offs, then a backdoor stack should be viable when paired with a correlated QB from a high-end scoring team.

⭐ Jordan Love and the Packers Receiving Options

The Packers’ Week 17 matchup against Minnesota has the fifth-highest total on the week making both teams a wildcard contest to stack. But at first glance, the star presence of a few veterans available in the early rounds is what’s fueling our interest:

Justin Jefferson (ADP: 1.2)
Christian Watson (39.4)
T.J. Hockenson (52.6)
Aaron Jones (53.5)
Alexander Mattison (59.0)

Kirk Cousins becomes a popular stacking after drafting any of the Vikings, given his high-end passing options, and Minnesota ranked sixth in pass rate over expected (PROE) last year. But if he’s taken and you’re left with unstacked Vikings, queueing up Jordan Love is the way to play it.

Love had a 10.3% scramble rate in his lone start against the Chiefs in ‘21. We already know Watson’s explosive playmaking ability and their addition of Luke Musgrave looks like a match worth a click late in drafts.

After Minnesota allowed the tenth-most QB1 finishes in ‘22, and still have work to do on their defense, Love and GB’s passing offense is a “zig where everyone’s zagging” approach to adjusting on the fly.

Humans are intrinsically flawed creatures, so let’s use that to our advantage. Each week, Cooterdoodle will walk us through the internal mind of a fantasy football player. For better or for worse, let’s get inside those mushy little brains and engage in some mental warfare. Let’s go mental!

🏗️ The IKEA Effect

Let’s talk about building a tight-knit, long-standing fantasy football league.

If you’ve been playing fantasy football for a while, you’ve likely encountered some leagues that stood the test of time and others that crumbled faster than a Nature Valley granola bar.

If your home league is going to persevere, you’ve got to get inside the minds of your league mates. You’ve got to take advantage of The IKEA Effect.

No, I’m not talking about sitting criss-cross applesauce and assembling chairs together on draft day.

To put it succinctly: If they build it, they will stay. Just like building IKEA furniture, studies have found that we place a higher value on things that we help to create.

🤔 So how does this translate to fantasy football?

Help your league mates to place a higher value on the league. Rather than acting as bystanders witnessing a ruling, help everyone in your league to have a say in the decisions.

Think of your league as a singular entity. Everyone involved should have a hand in its creation.

But this doesn’t apply only to new leagues. This applies to the continual evolution and changes that come with any fantasy league, year after year.

July is a great time to start asking everyone for their input on:

rule changes
scoring changes
switching to a different drafting application
adjusting league size
league punishment ideas
draft party ideas
beefing up your bylaws

If you are the commissioner, let everyone have a turn at the wrench. If you’re not commissioner, be sure to advocate for everyone’s voice to be heard. The psychology behind helping to build the leagues that you’re a part of is crucial for extending their longevity.

Speaking from personal experience, leagues that are ruled with a dictatorial iron fist often fizzle out, while collaborative leagues typically stand the test of time.

Mental warfare doesn’t always have to revolve around internal conflict. Sometimes, we fight the good fight, together.

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👀 Guess which website got a hot new redesign? Hint: it rhymes with “Schmantasy Schife”.

🎉 Scott Fish is connecting the industry one city at a time. How are the vibes in your area?

😲 Dalvin Cook is getting interest from an AFC East team not named the Dolphins. Breece Hall stans look away.

🤗 It’s all love for Justin Jefferson on and off the field. This fan knows what’s up.

🤯 J.J. Watt could’ve played on what team?!? Think of the possibilities…

🤝🏾 C.J. Stroud named two Texans skill players he’s worked out with over the offseason. Are you drafting them?

📽 Netflix announces a new docu-series on QBs. Get out your popcorn.

🦅 Another big year for the Dirty Birds is in store. Jalen Hurts for MVP, anyone?

We all want to target the best offenses to find the best fantasy players. But, as Ian points out, it’s also important to be mindful of potential volume limitations inside of each team’s position groups with multiple parties worthy of high-end touch counts.

Multiple top-24 WRs in one offense happen more than you think

Average per season: 4.4
Median: 4.5

This feat hasn’t been all that rare – especially in recent history, with at least five-such examples occurring in each of the last five seasons.

Intriguingly, these offenses didn’t have any problems also producing top-tier fantasy QBs and RBs, although the additional presence of top-12 TEs has been pretty rare.

Top-12 QBs among the 44 qualified offenses: 31 (70.5%)
Top-24 RBs: 35 (79.5%)
Top-12 TEs: 7 (15.9%)

All three of these rates are intriguing when considering that the expected totals for QBs (16.5), RBs (33) and TEs (16.5) in the sample are each fairly far removed from each group.

The easiest explanation is that an offense has to be pretty damn good to have enough production to support these two top-24 WRs in the first place. This is backed up by the reality that the average scoring rank from these 44 offenses was a stellar 10.2.

There are currently seven offenses with at least one WR with an ADP inside the position’s top-24 options and another inside the top-36:

Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase (WR2 ADP), Tee Higgins (WR14)
Dolphins: Tyreek Hill (WR4), Jaylen Waddle (WR11)
Eagles: A.J. Brown (WR6), DeVonta Smith (WR13)
Seahawks: DK Metcalf (WR15), Tyler Lockett (WR34), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR32)
Jaguars: Calvin Ridley (WR16), Christian Kirk (WR27)
49ers: Deebo Samuel (WR17 ADP), Brandon Aiyuk (WR28)
Chargers: Keenan Allen (WR19 ADP), Mike Williams (WR25)

The 2013 Broncos (DT, Decker, Walker), 2018 Rams (Kupp, Woods, Cooks) and 2020 Bucs (Godwin, Evans, AB) are the only groups to produce three WR2 finishers in the same season since 2013. Good luck, Seahawks.

I don’t think our findings warrant extreme stands against any of the above groups, especially given the aforementioned recent trend of five-plus offenses enabling multiple top-24 WRs in the same season. This is especially true with only the Bengals, Dolphins, and Eagles having both of their receivers inside the position’s top-24 players.

If anything, the reality that these groups are so often paired with a top-tier QB has me feeling better than ever about trusting Geno Smith in the middle rounds and even Brock Purdy later in the draft.

Multiple top-24 RBs are far more rare in the modern NFL

Average per season: 1.9
Median: 2

This trend has been dying out lately, with just six total squads qualifying over the past five years.

The 2017 Saints (Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram) are the only backfield duo to produce multiple top-12 RBs in PPR points per game in the same season over the past 10 years; it’s really rare to find an offense that rotates multiple backs effectively enough for each to put up truly big-time fantasy numbers.

Similar to WR, there aren’t an egregious amount of offenses actively projected to enable this sort of production in terms of 2023 ADP, but a handful do at least have one back inside the top-24 with another popping up before the 36th back is typically off the board.

Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs (RB13 ADP), David Montgomery (RB24)
Seahawks: Kenneth Walker (RB16), Zach Charbonnet (RB31)
Packers: Aaron Jones (RB17), AJ Dillon (RB33)

The commonality with previous qualifiers featured an offense that either featured two backs consistently in complementary roles, or had two talents good enough to share three-down duties in a 1.A/1.B situation.

Each of the above three instances sure look like situations that could produce multiple top-24 talents considering the following:

Gibbs and Montgomery enter distinct roles in an offense that pulled off this very feat last year.

Charbonnet has the prospect profile to help on passing downs and short-yardage situations – areas which Walker struggled in last season.

Jones and Dillon have routinely been used side-by-side in recent years, with the former holding relatively modest leads in carries (384 vs. 373) and targets (137 vs. 80) over the past two seasons.

The other backfield that I could see joining the club: Washington. It’s possible that sixth-round RB Chris Rodriguez factors into Brian Robinson’s early-down work, but the absence of longtime scat back J.D. McKissic at least opens up the full-time pass-down role for Antonio Gibson. This offense is hardly guaranteed to be good, but the 19 qualified teams over the past 10 years only posted an average scoring offense rank of 13.4.

Read On For More from Ian!