Week 5 Scheme Advantages & Disadvantages For Fantasy Football: Josh Downs Coming Up Big

The Steelers have allowed 2.65 YPRR to WRs when playing two-high coverage (2nd most). Downs historically has been much better against two-high coverage, so it’s a good schematic fit for his talent.

I know Downs was a flop last week, but Receiver Score graded him as WR12 in total and WR10 in per route value. I’m going back to the well and have him as a clear WR2 this week.

Aaron Jones vs Saints Run Defense

Aaron Jones gets a Saints defense that just allowed Atlanta's RBs to combine for 207 rushing yards. New Orleans has earned an F in my run-defense grades this season, allowing 5.32 YPC to RBs, second most in the NFL.

Outside zone is Minnesota's most-used run concept under Kevin O'Connell, who has given Jones at least 17 carries in three straight games. The Saints have allowed 6.10 YPC on 52 outside-zone carries this season, per PFF.

Jones finished with 94 yards on 20 carries and drew 7 targets against Miami last week. I have him as a low-end RB1 against New Orleans, especially if Minnesota keeps using him that much in the passing game.

Braelon Allen vs Browns Run Defense

I'm going back to Braelon Allen if Breece Hall misses another game with his quad injury. Hall remains week-to-week after sitting out against Chicago, when Allen handled all 14 of the Jets' RB carries. Allen's 59 rushing yards don't look like much, but New York ran just 32 offensive plays all game.

The Browns have earned an F in run defense against a Jets line with a B in run blocking. Cleveland allows 4.80 YPC to RBs, sixth-most in the NFL, including 3.47 yards after contact per carry (5th most). I'd expect Allen to get most of the carries again if Hall remains out, with an RB2 ranking for him against Cleveland. The Browns will also be without Mason Graham, their star defensive tackle.

Jaylen Warren vs Colts Defense

Indianapolis has allowed 209 receiving yards on just 19 targets to players aligned in the backfield, a league-high 11.0 yards per target. Warren ran 33 routes and earned 6 targets in Pittsburgh's passing game last week.

Pittsburgh has earned an A in run blocking and uses zone concepts on 58% of Warren's carries. Indianapolis allows 4.88 YPC against those runs (5th most). Warren has topped 90 rushing yards in both games without Rico Dowdle, including 93 on 17 carries last week.

Dowdle returned to a limited practice Wednesday after missing the last two games. I have Warren as a low-end RB1 if Dowdle remains out, but I'd still start him as an RB2 if both play in this matchup.

Juwan Johnson vs Vikings Coverage

Juwan Johnson has earned 8 targets in each of the last two games, with first-read shares of 25.9% and 23.3%, per Fantasy Points Data. New Orleans is prioritizing him as option two in the offense on a weekly basis.

Minnesota's linebackers have earned a D in coverage, with Eric Wilson and safety Josh Metellus both grading poorly in my blended model. Johnson averages 1.82 YPRR on 90 routes against zone coverage, which Minnesota uses on more than 80% dropbacks.

Johnson has also averaged 2.35 YPRR on 49 routes against the blitz, earning 10 targets on those plays so far this season. We all know Brian Flores’ defense leads the NFL in blitz rate. I like Johnson as a low-end TE1 this week with how involved he's been in New Orleans' passing game.

Cincinnati Passing Game vs Dolphins Defense

Mike Gesicki is someone I'd stream against Miami if Ja'Marr Chase and/or Tee Higgins are out. Both receivers missed Wednesday's practice, with Chase still in concussion protocol. Cincinnati ranks seventh in my pass-protection grades against a Miami defense that's last in both pass rush and coverage.

The Bengals use two TEs on a league-high 41.8% of their offensive plays. Miami ranks 31st in EPA allowed against two-TE formations through the first four weeks of the season. Gesicki ran 85% of his routes from the slot last week against Jacksonville, per PFF. Miami allows 1.87 YPRR to TEs lined up wide or in the slot (4th most in the NFL).

Dohnte Meyers earned 8 targets on 52 routes following Chase's exit last week. I'd use him as a WR3/flex if Chase and Higgins both miss, with a full week to prepare for a larger role.

Matthew Stafford vs Bills Coverage

Matthew Stafford is a QB1 for me in a game with a 54-point total and a favorable matchup for his receivers. Sean McVay has leaned heavily on the passing game over the last two weeks, with a 9% dropback rate over expected (2nd in the NFL).

Buffalo's slot coverage has earned an F in my grades this season, allowing 344 yards on 33 targets. Puka Nacua moves around a ton and should be able to take advantage when he lines up in the slot.

Buffalo ranks 28th in EPA allowed on short throws and 26th on intermediate throws, where Nacua runs most of his routes. It’s a great schematic matchup and funnels through the Rams’ best receiver—Stafford is a MUST start this week.

Fantasy Football Matchups that are Tougher in Week 5

Tony Pollard vs Texans Run Defense

Generally speaking, sit your Titans players (and reconsider why you have most of them), but if you have Tony Pollard, this is not the week to use him.

The Texans run defense has an A grade in my blended model. Houston allows just 0.68 yards before contact per RB carry (4th fewest in the NFL) and the Titans offensive line has an F grade in run blocking in my model this season.

The Titans use gap concepts on 53.8% of their designed runs, the third highest rate in the league. Houston ranks sixth in EPA allowed against those plays. No RB has exceeded 80 rushing yards against the Texans through four games, including Jonathan Taylor's 68 yards on 23 carries.

I don't want to rely on Pollard's rushing production against this front when the Titans are 7.5-point underdogs and Spears is playing more on passing downs.

Deebo Samuel vs Seahawks Coverage

Seattle has allowed just 156 receiving yards on 36 slot targets, an average of 4.3 yards per target (2nd fewest in the NFL). Samuel runs 41% of his routes from the slot—I don't like his matchup against this secondary. The Seahawks have earned an A+ in my coverage grades and play zone on a league-high 91%. They've allowed WRs just 1.09 YPRR against zone (lowest rate in the NFL).

Receiver Score likes the deployment for Deebo Samuel as a WR3 until the 49ers get reinforcements, but not this week.

Courtland Sutton vs Chargers Coverage

Courtland Sutton hasn't produced much against two-high coverage through the first month of the season. He's earned just 9 targets on 65 routes (13.8% TPRR) against those looks, totaling 38 yards and 0.58 YPRR. The Chargers play two-high on roughly 60% of their passing plays. Even in 2025, Sutton was much worse against two-high with a 1.41 YPRR (2.32 against single-high).

Sutton's aDOT has become deeper and deeper each week—15 in Week 4!—well beyond Bo Nix's overall average depth of target of 6.4 yards on the season. He’s someone I would try to sell overall, but this is also a poor schematic matchup for him.