Week 3 TE Rankings: Breakout Stars Juwan Johnson And Chig Okonkwo
Matthew Freedman uncovers his favorite tight ends from his Week 3 tight end rankings for fantasy football.
It's Week 3 of the NFL regular season. We're in the grind now.
Dudes are getting injured. Players are booming one week and then busting the next. Some mediocre NFL teams are 2-0, and a great one is 0-2.
\In the words of Life of Agony—maybe my second-favorite Brooklyn-based '90s metal band—"the river runs red."
Whether you're a warrior or a fisherman, it's time to wade in the water.
You can find each of my weekly positional breakdowns here:
Here's the Week 3 TE edition of Freedman's Favorites.
Tight End Rankings for Week 3
See below for my top 12 tight ends for Week 3. You can find my full Week 3 fantasy football rankings in Rankings HQ.
Juwan Johnson (Saints) at Seahawks
Let's start with the Seahawks: They could be without slot CB Devon Witherspoon (knee) and No. 3 S Nick Emmanwori (ankle), both of whom would likely play some snaps against Juwan Johnson if they were healthy.
Additionally, this year the Seahawks have allowed opposing TEs to convert 18 targets into 16 receptions for 108 yards and two TDs.
That's in line with the 13-125-1 receiving statline we've seen from Johnson so far this season … and then consider that Johnson currently leads the Saints in receiving, and he's literally the only TE on the team with a target.
At worst, Johnson is a low-end TE1 … but that honestly feels too low to me. We're starting this guy even if there's a fire.
Johnson is the only TE with a top-five fantasy finish in each of the past weeks (per our Fantasy Life Scoring Matrix).
With TEs Taysom Hill (knee, PUP) and Foster Moreau (knee, PUP) both on the sideline, Johnson has the full-time TE job to himself, and he has seized his opportunity. In Weeks 1-2, he was the No. 1 TE in Utilization Score (97, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report) as well as the No. 1 TE in snap rate (97%) and No. 3 TE in WOPR (58%).
"WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.
Right now, we're looking at a top-three player at the position.
He's not ranked or esteemed that way—but maybe he should be.
Chig Okonkwo (Titans) vs. Colts
I noted Chig Okonkwo in last week's piece, and nothing has changed in my assessment of him—except I now have another data point that backs up my position.
Among Titans pass catchers, Okonkwo through two weeks is No. 2 with an 81% snap rate and 79% route rate. Those numbers—along with his 18% target share—make him a borderline TE1, but he's not at all valued that way in the supermajority of leagues.
The problem is that his production (7-54-0 receiving on 10 targets) hasn't matched his usage.
Framed differently: We have an opportunity to trade for him and acquire him via waivers before he goes off, which could happen this week against the Colts, who last year were No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (+3.7).
I have Okonkwo as my only TE in the company Guillotine League, and let me tell you something: I'm not worried about these losers chopping me anytime soon.
Of course, I tend not to worry about anything, but still—not worried.
The Hot Route
Zach Ertz (Commanders) vs. Raiders: QB Jayden Daniels (knee) is questionable, but backup QB Marcus Mariota played well for the Commanders last year (10.1 AY/A). Ertz has 9-90-2 receiving on 13 targets, and the Commanders—as home favorites with a four-day rest advantage—are officially "widowmakers." Previous teams in this spot are 11-5 ATS (34.1% ROI, per Action Network). The Commanders are -3.5 favorites and should put up points. With a game total of 44.5, the over is a five-star bet (per our Fantasy Life Game Model). Last year the Raiders were No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (11.9). Ertz should be rostered in almost all formats.
Dalton Kincaid (Bills) vs. Dolphins: Kincaid has been efficient with his opportunities (8-85-1 receiving, 10 targets), and the Bills are No. 1 in implied team total (30.75). The Dolphins last year were No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (13.7%, per FTN), and SS Ifeatu Melifonwu (calf) might be unavailable on the short week after popping up on the injury report.
Dalton Schultz (Texans) at Jaguars: I can't believe I'm typing this sentence … but Schultz is No. 2 on the Texans with a 69% route rate and 16% target share, and TEs Cade Stover (foot, IR) and Brevin Jordan (knee, IR) are out—so he has a shot to keep (and expand?) his role. Last year, the Jags were No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (29.9%).
Abbreviations And Process Notes
In this piece I highlight some TEs I expect to perform better than they usually do.
What causes me to upgrade a guy?
Usually some combination of these components.
- Favorable betting factors and situational spots
- Advantageous defensive matchup (perhaps aided by injury)
- Increased usage expectation (again, maybe aided by injury)
Some notes.
Defensive matchups: For one more week, I'll rely on last year's defensive data more than this year's.
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have rather incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will be reflected in my weekly rankings and my weekly projections. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Access: To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings and projections schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better. We'll see what 2025 brings.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Cohesion: My positional breakdowns are published separately, but I think of them as comprising one whole, so check out the rest of my favorite Week 3 fantasy football plays (via my Fantasy Life author page).
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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