Week 3 Smashes and Stashes: 'This Is The Spot' For a George Pickens Explosion

Welcome to Week 3. Let’s huddle up and quickly review the game plan. Our goal is to dominate. This week and beyond. In order to do that, I’m going to discuss key players to target as “Smashes” and “Stashes”.

The “Smashes” are players I expect to out-perform their season projections in Week 3. We want these guys in our lineups. The “Stashes” are players with long-term upside, that we will use to ambush the opposition in coming weeks.

You know the rules. We don’t blink, we don’t flinch, and we certainly don’t panic drop these guys for every one-game wonder that hits the waiver wire.

Week 3 Fantasy Football Smashes

George Pickens WR, Dallas Cowboys

I cautioned everyone to pump the brakes on Pickens throughout the preseason. The talent is there, the fit with the Cowboys is perfect, but there are always a few games where he disappears. He’s a volatile player that thrives when everything is clicking.

Throughout the first two games, you can see his performance mirror the team's offensive success.

Wk1: 24-20 loss vs. Philadelphia

George Pickens: 3-30-0 | 4.5 FP

Team passing yards: 188
Drop back Success Rate: 38.5% (28th)

Wk2 : 40-37 win vs. NY Giants

George Pickens: 5-68-1 | 15.3 FP

Team passing yards: 361
Drop back Success Rate: 50% (t-10th)

Pickens is arguably the most valuable WR2 in all of football, but you still have to pick your spots. And if anyone has watched the Bears this season - this is the spot.

The Bears are still licking their wounds from a 52-21 loss to the Lions where they surrendered five passing touchdowns. More importantly, Jameson Williams (WR2) burned the Bears secondary for 108 yards and a touchdown, good for 17.8 FP. So, a high-end WR2 ate against this defense. Perfect, sign me up for a repeat.

This is an ideal smash spot for Pickens. The vibes should be high as Dak Prescott will face little resistance for the second straight week. Chicago’s defense ranks 29th in red zone defense, 30th in dropback EPA, and 31st in dropback success rate. There are only 32 teams, folks. Let’s push Pickens into every possible lineup.

Daniel Jones QB, Indianapolis Colts

Guys, Sam Darnold didn’t turn into a pumpkin until January 5th last season. Trophies were already hoisted, winnings were deposited and cleared.

Why wouldn’t I ride Indiana Jones until the wheels fall off?

If the universe is going to create a world where I am going to get 20-30 fantasy points a week from a player I drafted in the 12th or 13th round, you better believe I am going to take full advantage of it. Every single time.

As an Eagles’ fan, I am very familiar with Shane Steichen’s game. I can’t commit to how long the Steichen/Jones marriage can sustain this level of fantasy production, but I am comfortable it can torch this Titans’ defense.

Cam Ward is still figuring it out. As a result, Tennessee is at the bottom of most significant offensive metrics. Jones should get the benefit of good field position while operating in a positive game script.

Early Down EPA/Play

Colts offense: 0.28 (1st)
Titans defense: -.05 (10th)
Titans offense: -0.31 (32nd)
Colts defense: 0.01 (16th)

While it looks like the Titans should be able to provide some resistance to Jones playing ahead of the sticks, Ward and company aren’t efficient enough to capitalize early. When the Titans’ have trailed this season, the defense rapidly erodes to a bottom-five unit in terms of EPA/play allowed (via Sumersports).

All signs point to the Daniel Jones comeback tour going strong for another week. The Colts QB is starting in only 35% of leagues, even though his 52.3 fantasy points trails only Lamar Jackson. Our rankers have him as the consensus QB11 for Week 3 with Dwain McFarland slotting Jones as high as QB8.

If you’re scared, get a dog. If you have an elite QB, go with your guy. Everyone else should be smashing Daniel Jones.

Week 3 Fantasy Football Stashes

Cam Skattebo RB, NY Giants

All of a sudden, from a fantasy perspective, there is A LOT going on in New York.

The Giants exploded for 506 yards of total offense. Russell Wilson morphed into his 2016 form, spamming deep shots over the Dallas secondary to the tune of 450 yards and 3 TDs. It’s hard to believe this was the same team that failed to reach the endzone in its 21-6 season opening loss to the Washington Commanders.

Buried somewhere under the headlines is my favorite fantasy stash for Week 3: Cam Skattebo.

I wasn’t sure how quickly the Giants would integrate the rookie running back into their offense. We found out in Week 2 - and it worked. Yes, there is definitely much more correlation than causation to Skattebo’s impact, but the eye test confirmed the rookie brought some juice to an offense that sorely needed an injection of energy. Skattebo got the call on 11 of 17 running back opportunities, and his 45 yards was three times more than Tyrone Tracy.

At the end of the day, we aren’t forcing Skattebo into our lineups after an 11-45-1 showing. However, he is shaping up to be the Giants workhorse when it matters most. The usage uptick and red zone opportunities are key indicators for future value. Skattebo has already barrelled his way to RB30 in our rest of the season rankings.

Elic Ayomanor WR, Tennessee Titans

I learned two things in the Titans 33-19 loss to the Rams. First, Cam Ward has insane arm talent. I can’t emphasize insane enough. Secondly, the man on the receiving end of the most impressive nine-yard touchdown pass I have ever set eyes on, is going to get more opportunities.

Make no mistake, WR Elic Ayomanor should be on your radar.

It’s only been two weeks, but we went from “Calvin Ridley breakout season” to "let’s stash everyone in this offense not named Ridley" pretty darn quickly. Against the Rams, Cam Ward orchestrated a three-way split, serving up six targets each to Ridley, Ayomanor, and TE Chig Okoronkwo (former Week 1 stash). Ward's “anyone can get it” mentality opens the door for Ayomanor to grow into a significant role once this offense finds its footing.

We can stash Ayomanor and be honest with ourselves at the same time. Right now, nobody is valuable on a team that averages 3.2 yards per play (32nd), and ranks 30th in EPA per dropback. That’s a big reason he is only rostered in 68% of leagues. However, fantasy championships are never won off September performances, but they can be won off September stashes.