Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings: Who I'm Higher & Lower On Than Expert Consensus Rankings

Welcome to the first in-season edition of Cupps’ Cupboard! Every Friday this season, I’ll be dropping my overall strategy for the upcoming week of games—players I’m higher/lower on than consensus fantasy football rankings, and the biggest things I’ll be keeping my eye on. 

As someone who primarily leverages data to make decisions in fantasy football, my rankings are created using a blend of several inputs:

• Our weekly fantasy football projections, adjusted using fantasy football DvP rankings
• Prediction market data (essentially taking the current prices on various yardage, touchdowns, receptions, etc., to create implied fantasy point projections)
• Vegas prop lines

Using these sources as a baseline, I create my own hybrid projection system for each position. Let’s get right into it!

Quarterbacks I'm Higher On Than Consensus Rankings In Week 1 - The Studs

Kyler Murray

• FL Consensus: QB15
• My Rank: QB14 (+1)

I’ve spent this entire offseason higher than consensus on Murray, so it’s only right to call him out in my Week 1 rankings.

There are a couple of things that stand out to me about Kyler in Week 1. First, he comes in as the QB5 on the week in our Fantasy Life projections. Additionally, he has a ‘Vegas base’ value—essentially, the combination of a player’s fantasy stats outside of touchdown points —of 11.2 points (QB10). High floor, high ceiling week for Murray (get used to hearing that one this season) to kick things off against Green Bay.

Justin Herbert

• FL Consensus: QB4
• My Rank: QB3

Not a true gap here rankings-wise (thanks to Herbert being Freedman's QB1 on the week), but I think it’s a pretty difficult sell to have Herbert outside the top-three QBs this week. He gets to open the season against Arizona, who rank 26th in DvP, allowing 1.8 more projected points to QBs on average. This FantasyLife DvP-adjusted projection has Herbert at 20.7 (QB2) in a four-point passing TD format.

His implied prediction market projection is 20.9 (QB2), and his Vegas base projection is 11.7 (QB3). Hard to imagine many better options in Week 1 than Justin Herbert!

 QB Rankings I'm Lower On In My Fantasy Rankings - The Duds

Caleb Williams

• FL Consensus: QB12
• My Rank: QB15 (-3)

It’s tough having Williams this low after drafting him as an elite QB option, but the data just doesn’t suggest a great opener for him from a fantasy perspective. 

The Carolina Panthers matchup is middle-of-the-road from a DvP perspective. Ranking 18th, the adjustment is minimal, leaving Williams with a Fantasy Life projection of 17.6 (QB12). Prediction market data projects Caleb for 18.8 (QB11), which is a bit of an improvement, but still not great.

Better days will definitely be projected ahead for Caleb, but this opening matchup is not my favorite.

Patrick Mahomes

• FL Consensus: QB19
• My Rank: QB21 (-2)

Not a massive ranking delta here, but man … talk about an absolute bruiser of a matchup for Mahomes’ first game back off the knee injury that ended his 2025 season.

Denver ranks 2nd in DvP against QBs, giving Mahomes an absolutely BRUTAL 13.3 (QB29) projection. On a brighter note, his Vegas base projection is 10.8 (QB16).

I’m not one to want to doubt the GOAT … but this is going to be a tough hill to climb.

Running Backs I'm Higher On Than Consensus Rankings In Week 1 - The Studs

Breece Hall

• FL Consensus: RB15
• My Rank: RB13 (+2)

Breece slots in the near-backend RB1 range for me, while he’s more of a mid RB2 according to ECR. The Jets get the Titans in week 1, who rank 19th in DvP against RBs, giving Breece a Fantasy Life projection of 14.6 (RB12). Additionally, his Vegas base projection comes in at 10.9 (RB9)—while the ceiling might be capped in a low-scoring affair between two mid offenses, he has a solid floor.

Chuba Hubbard

• FL Consensus: RB28
• My Rank: RB21 (+7)

Chuba is one of my favorite cheap plays in Week 1. It sounds like Brooks is planning on suiting up, but considering he’s still coming back from injury, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hubbard take a majority of the work.

Chicago comes in at 24th in DvP vs. RBs, giving him an adjusted Fantasy Life projection of 12.8 points (RB20). No Vegas or prediction market data on the Panthers backfield at this point.

RBs I'm Lower On Than Consensus Rankings In Week 1 - The Duds

Omarion Hampton

• FL Consensus: RB9
• My Rank: RB10 (-1)

Everything in my mind tells me this feels like an absolute smash spot for Hampton in Week 1. Arizona is 29th in DvP vs RBs, giving Hampton an adjusted projection of 17.6 (RB4). 

Something isn’t lining up, though, when looking at the other projection data I’m looking at. His implied prediction market projection is 13.8 points (RB12), and his Vegas base projection is lower than Breece Hall at 10.5 (RB10).

I hope it’s not the case, but we might be over-projecting a bellcow Hampton role in Week 1. This is a backfield we’ll learn a ton about right out of the gate.

Jeremiyah Love

• FL Consensus: RB24
• My Rank: RB30 (-6)

I really, really do not trust Love to get anywhere near a full workload right out of the gate after spending the last couple of weeks sidelined with injury, and the projections back this up.

The matchup is already brutal as is, with LAC ranking 2nd in DvP against RBs, giving Love a defense-adjusted Fantasy Life projection of 9.8 points (RB30). I’d look elsewhere for another starter fill-in if possible.

Wide Receivers I'm Higher On Than Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings In Week 1 - The Studs

Malik Nabers

• FL Consensus: QB17
• My Rank: WR12 (+5)

If Nabers suits up in Week 1, I’m viewing it as all systems go for one of the league’s most talented WRs. Dallas ranks 31st in DvP against WRs, giving Nabers a boosted FL projection of 15.0 points (WR10). His Vegas base projection backs up this optimism; an 11.6-point projection has him as WR13.

Devaughn Vele

• FL Consensus: WR56
• My Rank: WR52 (+4)

If you’re already in a pinch for a quick starter … first off, I’m sorry this happened to you before the year even kicked off. Second, look no further than Devaughn Vele.

Available pretty much everywhere, Vele looks pretty awesome on all projection fronts. DvP-adjusted projections have him at roughly 8.3 points (WR53), and his Vegas base projection comes in at 7.5 points (WR40). You could definitely do worse than starting Vele in Week 1.

WRs I'm Lower On In My Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Duds

Drake London

• FL Consensus: WR10
• My Rank: WR15 (-5)

I love Drake London. I don’t love his Week 1 projection. The Pittsburgh Steelers come in at 7th in DvP against WRs, and in turn, London comes in with an adjusted FL projection of 12.7 points (WR21). 

A bit of a silver lining: London’s prediction market implied projection has him at WR12, and his Vegas base projection of 11.9 has him at WR10. These discrepancies have me landing on him in the middle at WR15, lower than the WR10 consensus ranking.

Carnell Tate

• FL Consensus: WR39
• My Rank: WR50 (-11)

Carnell Tate couldn’t have drawn a better Week 1 matchup for his NFL debut. The New York Jets rank dead last in DvP against WRs, allowing +1.6 more points on average at the position. This bumps Tate to an awesome FL projection of 11.9 points (WR24). 

On the flip side … the prop market does NOT have high hopes for his debut. Tate comes in with a Vegas base projection of 7.3 (WR46). I love the matchup on paper, but Tate’s O/U 38.5 receiving yards leaves a lot to be desired.

Tight End I'm Higher On Than Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings In Week 1 - The Stud

Michael Mayer

• FL Consensus: TE15
• My Rank: TE6 (+9)

I’m guessing all the experts on ECR are just slow to update their rankings to reflect Brock Bowers being out this week, but I’d wager I’ll still be higher on Mayer than most at TE12 here. I’m just a massive fan of Mayer as a talent, and feel confident rolling him out there as a true TE handcuff anytime Bowers is sidelined. 

The prediction market implied projection looks absolutely insane here for Mayer as well. He comes in with a projection of 7.8 points—ahead of guys like Pitts, Andrews, Kincaid and Goedert. I’d definitely feel comfortable snagging him off waivers and plugging him in.

TE I'm Lower On In My Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings Than Consensus - The Dud

Harold Fannin

• FL Consensus: TE9
• My Rank: TE11 (-2)

You’re not going to find a bigger Harold Fannin truther than me … but wow, he does not look great in Week 1 projections. Fantasy Life is on the bullish end here, with a DvP-adjusted projection of 9.6 points (TE8). His Vegas base projection leaves much to be desired—coming in at 6.8 points (TE14). Also worth noting, his receiving yardage prop is currently set at 33.5. This puts him around TEs like Brenton Strange, Isaiah Likely and Dalton Schultz. Not what you like to see after spending a relatively early pick on Fannin in drafts.

One closing thought: it’s important to remember this is Week 1, and we have just about as little info as possible on all these players. Many of these projections are going to look hilariously bad in hindsight. The good news is—as we get more and more information every week, the lines get sharper and the system gets better. I hope you’ll stick around for my data-driven write-ups every week this season!