Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Matchup Breakdown For Fantasy Football Week 5

• Spread: Texans -6.5
• Total: 39.5
• Score Prediction (from our NFL Betting Game Model): HOU 23, TEN 17

Houston Texans Fantasy Preview

I did some digging through the historical database to assess just how tall a mountain to climb stands in front of these Texans. Going back to 1966 to cover the Super Bowl era, 147 teams started 0-4, with just one making the playoffs (1992 San Diego Chargers). That’s 0.68% for all the math majors out there. So … you’re saying there’s a chance???

As a nefarious boomer, of course I’m pointing the finger of blame directly at a nonexistent run game: 3.5 yards/attempt, 2.30 yards after contact/carry, and 0 +20-yard rushes all land in the bottom-5. Lack of a dual-threat approach not only puts a tremendous strain on the offense, but takes them entirely out of character. Can almost guarantee you DeMeco Ryans never envisioned throwing this much as a pathway to winning.

After David Montgomery’s 3-TD outburst in Week 1, neither he nor Woody Marks mustered a single top-30 positional finish. Montgomery’s still holding onto the starting role, but at 2.7 yards/attempt, -0.32 EPA/rush, and a 30.0% success rate, for how long’s an entirely different question altogether. Having already seen him overtake opportunity share in Week 2, Marks could be the starter going forward at any time.

Had I told you coming into the season that Houston’s a top-6 passing team in terms of yardage (264.8 yards/game) with the single-most +20-yard completions in the league (19) — you’d probably think any preseason future bets on a Texan Super Bowl appearance appreciated in value. Womp womp. C.J. Stroud’s playing well in a convincing bounceback campaign from his 2025 debacle, but eating a dozen sacks already is taking away from a nice combo of high volume (41.5 dropbacks/game) plus depth (9.7 ADoT) and no picks.

Obviously, Nico Collins is a must-start fantasy beast, averaging +25 fantasy points/game at 26.9% target/route, and 2.88 yards per route run. Whoa. That said, the other thing I’m looking for is a second viable Texan receiving option, and whether the recent emergence of Jaylin Noel could stick. The second-year third-rounder tied Kayshon Boutte in routes on Sunday, operating as a primary slot receiver. A reliable target-earner underneath could complement Collins nicely and provide value in both real life and fantasy.

• Start: C.J. Stroud, RB David Montgomery, WR Nico Collins
• Sit: RB Woody Marks, WR Kayshon Boutte
• Sleeper: WR Jaylin Noel

Tennessee Titans Fantasy Preview

Move over Miami, you can’t be the worst at everything offense-related. Weird that the tenor around the Titans appears to be softening, while I’m standing pretty firm on my “No Titans Ever” policy. Not only did Tennessee manage to recently jump the Dolphins for last place in yards/game (261.3), but they’re the very last team in the NFL to gain +300 yards in any single contest. Oof. Hard to do anything with those Shire-height ceilings in fantasy football.

Tony Pollard’s the RB27 despite commanding 70% of all Titan backfield touches, and even that’s coming off scoring a TD to save an otherwise dismal day. Not to imply Pollard’s washed or anything; he’s still got some juice left — it’s just that between the porous O-line and TEN’s disastrous contextual environment, there’s very little offensive production at all. Hard to run the ball when you’re trailing 83% of the time. Given the state of running backs at large, he’s still a start for the TD equity, and whatever few points that’s worth.

Another island I’m apparently standing alone on centers around rookie WR Carnell Tate. Congratulations, drafters, you finally finished inside the top-30 for the first time. It still took a dozen targets and a month to get there, not to mention a putrid 74 passer rating in that very same game from Cam Ward. All I’m saying is that same 21.5 PPR points has been achieved 48 separate times this season and could just be a blip — I’d offer Tate up to anyone who’s willing to pay fair market value.

• Start: RB Tony Pollard, WR Carnell Tate
• Sit: QB Cam Ward, RB Tyjae Spears, TE Gunnar Helm
• Sleeper: WR Wan’Dale Robinson

Next Week's Bold Headline, Today

Well, someone had to win. Houston finally looks like the well-rounded team their backers projected, though it leaves the question of whether it’s just the Titans and if it’s just too little, too late.