San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals Matchup Breakdown For Fantasy Football Week 3

• Spread: Niners -8.5
• O/U: 48.5
• Score Prediction (from the Fantasy Life NFL Betting Model):  SF 29, ARI 21

Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Preview

Huge inflection point coming for the Cardinals, who handled their business to the tune of nearly 400 yards against LAC, only to turn around and produce just over a third of that versus SEA. Granted, there’s a reasonable Seahawk tax to apply anytime you face that D, but let’s be real — you never want to see an offense finish a game at 3.2 yards/play. Yikes.

The issue for Arizona? San Francisco’s defense, one that entered the season with lots of doubts surrounding it, has excelled thus far. Unsurprisingly led by ball-hawk Fred Warner, the Niners allowed the third-fewest points/game (10.0), with lots to be encouraged about. They’re tackling really well, using a creative mix of pre-snap alignments to create pressure without blitzing to sustain the numbers game in the secondary. That said, they’ve faced the jet-lagged Rams and hapless Dolphins. Perhaps the truth lies somewhere in the middle?

Jacoby Brissett proved you don’t need to win games to get paid, and keeping an offense on schedule’s worth at least eight figures. He’s played ok in a small sample, though working too heavily near the line hurts the entire offense (5.8 air yards/attempt, 32.3% throws to sticks). The resulting 5.7 yards/attempt helps maintain a solid +67% completion rate, but without sufficient deep shots (5.6%) or play-action dropbacks (19.0%) it stunts big-play ability.

In fact, in this age of using ball fakes to draw in coverage and go over the top of preventative shells, it seems inevitable — Brissett’s league-worst 32 play-action passing yards will come back to haunt them. Even with their warts, the Cardinals’ pass catchers all remain viable due to extreme consolidation of targets. Arizona’s the only team in the entire league to target only four combined WR/TE. Four?!? 

Vibes on Marvin Harrison Jr. couldn’t be much worse, current owner of the fewest targets earned and catches made among all WRs with +60 routes run. Not great. If there’s a glimmer of hope, it’s having not yet ceded 12-personnel snaps to Kendrick Bourne, who’s lapped him in terms of fantasy production for all intents and purposes. The “D” word is beginning to swirl around Harrison, and while I definitely wouldn’t start him, it’s too soon to drop him as well.

The backfield’s still murky, with extra frustration expressed by the Jeremiyah Love side, but I’m here to tell you it’s fine. Not only is Love a rookie, but he suffered a preseason ankle injury — he was never going to get 100% of the workload in September. To me, he’s a huge buy-low target. Love’s gained yards after contact (3.25 YAC/attempt), earned targets from the backfield (11.1% team target share, 30.1% target/route), and soaked up the majority of high-value touches in the green zone. As I said, he’s fine. Target any managers in your league for signs of panic.

• Start: Jeremiyah Love (RB25), Michael Wilson (WR35), Trey McBride (TE1)
• Sit: Jacoby Brissett (QB20), Tyler Allgeier (RB39), Marvin Harrison (WR59)
• Sleeper: Kendrick Bourne (WR71)

San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Preview

After handily defeating a solid Rams team halfway across the world, the Niners avoided a letdown by tossing the woeful Dolphins a Week 2 beating at home. The results so far? A top-5 grade in all my favorite efficiency macros: yards/play (6.7), success rate (61.1%), EPA/play (+0.24), plays/drive (6.7), yards/drive (42.8), and time of possession/drive (3:44). Kyle Shanahan’s back in his red and gold bag, baby!

As if it could get any juicier for us gamers, San Francisco’s slowly turning into a fantasy dreamscape, as injuries continue whittling away an already narrow target tree. The injury bug that started with Ricky Pearsall moved on to De'Zhaun Stribling, then Jake Tonges, and most recently bit Demarcus Robinson. Somebody make it stop …

Conversely, it’s great news for the remaining Niners on two legs, preparing to face a Cardinal defense in store for some negative regression on the scoreboard. Arizona’s struggling to slow drives, San Fran’s aforementioned strong suit. They’re dead last in three-and-outs forced (3) to go with bottom-quartile marks against the pass in EPA/dropback (-0.27), opposing passer rating (110.9), and yards/pass attempt (8.4). Long story short, the 49ers imply four TDs at sportsbooks for a reason. Smoke ‘em if you got ‘em …

Worth noting WR Mike Evans left the blowout win with a hip injury. As reported by Ian Rappoport, it "does not seem to be major," and the wideout has a "good chance" of practicing Thursday and/or Friday and playing this weekend against the Cardinals. Suddenly an already shallow roster’s being pushed to the edge.

I imagine it was purely precautionary, but deep leaguers should scoop up KhaDarel Hodge in the interim. After Evans left, he posted a perfect 100% route participation rate, leading the team in receiving. Better be prepared than sorry.

• Start: Brock Purdy (QB3), Christian McCaffrey (RB3), Mike Evans (WR14), Deebo Samuel (WR29), George Kittle (TE3)
• Sit: Kaelon Black (RB43)
• Sleeper: KhaDarel Hodge (WR125)

Next Week’s Bold Headline, Today

• Jury’s out. San Fran’s a wagon, destined for a deep playoff run if they can stay healthy. Arizona falls flat in another competitive loss but stays in our good fantasy graces. Nothing beats a losing team who actually pushes the favorite.