Players To Avoid In IDP Fantasy Football 2026: Chase Young, Brian Burns & More Landmines

There’s an emotional scene in Kingsman: The Golden Circle. Eggsy, Merlin and Harry Hart were infiltrating “Poppy Land”, the headquarters of a global drug cartel. They were attempting to get an antidote for a toxin-laced drug supply distributed by said cartel. The three of them were trying to sneak through a dense jungle. While they were trying to avoid the patrols, they failed to spot the hidden dangers.

This led to Eggsy stepping onto a landmine.

That's IDP fantasy football drafting in a nutshell; you're so focused on last year’s stats that you miss what's about to blow up your roster.

Well, I’m here to be your Merlin. Use this list as your freezing spray to prevent the landmine from detonating.

IDP Fantasy Football 2026: Landmines To Avoid

Trevin Wallace, LB, Carolina Panthers

The Panthers brought in Devin Lloyd during free agency to improve the LB play and shore up their third-down defense. Trevin Wallace has been the presumptive favorite to be the LB2 opposite Lloyd in their defense. Outside of Lloyd, they didn't really do much to address the LB position, even with an LB-rich 2026 draft class. Passing on guys like Jacob Rodriguez (would have been first round), Anthony Hill, Jake Golday and Kaleb Elarms-Orr.

Last season, he was an inefficient tackler, producing a 9.8% tackle rate and missing a tackle in every five attempts, resulting in a 43.3 run defense grade.

Well, all it took was their first preseason to set the mine off. The fact that he played and was not treated as a starter was a red flag. He also didn’t play very well, while Claudin Cherelus played the better game. Wallace was late to fits and slow to react in coverage.

The result? Dan Canales has openly said there’s now a competition for the LB2 spot. Plus, Cherelus has been getting cross-trained with the green dot as the defensive play caller. The Panthers have stated they want to get better against the run, and that’s been Wallace’s weak spot.

Wallace has been drafted as an LB2, but I’m warning you, you could be stepping on a potential landmine here.

Tyrel Dodson, LB, Miami Dolphins

Tyrel Dodson produced a very good IDP fantasy season in 2025, finishing as the LB7 in most scoring formats, resulting in 129 tackles, 5 sacks, 10 TFLs and 0.29 points per snap.

How was he rewarded? They drafted his potential replacement, Jacob Rodriguez, in the second round. On the surface, it seemed like a 2027 move, but it quickly turned into a positional battle heading into the season.

Jordyn Brooks recently signed a three-year extension, but we haven’t heard much out of Dodson during training camp. Meanwhile, Rodriguez continues to get time with the first team and is making play after play, especially in coverage.

Jacob Rodriguez ranked as my top linebacker prospect for 2026, largely due to his elite coverage skills. This is a massive contrast to Dodson, who remains a liability in space, surrendering a lackluster 108.1 passer rating when opposing quarterbacks look his way.

Dodson has been drafted as an LB2/3, but I’m not so sure he finishes the season as a starter, let alone begins the season as one. I’m passing on Dodson for safer LB options, and actually targeting Rodriguez late in redraft leagues.

Dee Winters, LB, Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys had three of the worst linebackers on their team in 2025: Kenneth Murray, Jack Sanborn and Logan Wilson. Those three are gone, and they traded for Dee Winters, who provided a marginal upgrade, at best.

Winters earned a 60.4 PFF grade, which ranked him 50th among 94 qualifying off-ball linebackers. His coverage grade (62) ranked 32nd among the qualifiers. From an IDP standpoint, he was serviceable, recording 101 tackles (10.2% tackle rate) and 0.20 points per snap. He was thrust into a full-time role due to all of the linebacker injuries. Cue in your substation jokes.

Demarvion Overshown looks healthy, for now, and has been operating as the defensive play caller; however, it’s their third-round pick who is making life miserable for Winters. Jaishawn Barham is popping during camp and has caught the eye of Brian Schottenheimer and Christian Parker.

Winters might have a slight edge for a starting role, but it’s shaky at best. Where he’s being drafted, I’d rather draft guys like Henry To’oTo’o, Dre Greenlaw, Jacob Rodriguez, Ventrell Miller or Drue Tranquill.

Chase Young, EDGE, New Orleans Saints

Chase Young’s 2025 might be an anomaly and is a bill of goods I’m not buying.

Young’s pressure metrics have been solid over the last few seasons, but it’s his finishing that has been the issue. He’s generating pressure at a consistent rate, and this past season, in true pass sets, produced a 20.6% pressure rate and 20.9% win rate. He also improved his pass-rush get-off and decreased his time to sack by nearly two seconds.

So how is he a potential landmine?

He had a 24.5% sack-to-conversion rate, which led to a career high in sacks (10). To me, that signals regression. Up until last season, he hadn’t had more than 7.5.

I’m not buying Young as a DL1 in 2026, even with his metrics, just because that sack number is telling me to run.

Andrew Van Ginkel, EDGE, Minnesota Vikings

Andrew Van Ginkel is always a point of contention for me. I fade him, and he manages to squeak into the top of the overall scoring, especially in big-play scoring formats (like Big3).

It’s the big plays. Those splash plays, no doubt, boost the ceiling, but lower the floor because they aren’t as stable as those pressure metrics.

His big play rate has increased steadily since 2023. Last season, he finished with a 7% big-play rate, which was aided by a career high in defended passes (10).

It is all about the big plays, which I find highly unsustainable. His sack totals are trending downward, mirrored by a declining win rate and pressure metrics in true pass sets. That win rate is a massive red flag, cratering to a career-low 9.5%. When you see a 32% pressure-to-sack conversion rate, it absolutely screams regression. I am a hard pass.

Brian Burns, EDGE, New York Giants

Brian Burns just posted a career year that I’m not sure I’ll be buying in 2026.

15 sacks is going to have him going off the board like a locked-in DL1. On the surface, it looks legit. If you take away the sack total (yes, I know that’s the key cog in IDP) and look at what's under the hood, it’s not looking great. His win rate got cut nearly in half, from 14.5% in 2024 down to 7.3% in 2025. His true pass-set win rate, the number that tells you how he's winning when it's just him and the tackle, fell off a cliff too, from 18.2% to 9.1%. That's not a guy improving. That's a guy who got worse at rushing the passer and got paid for it anyway.

So how'd he get to 15 sacks on a down year?

A 28.3% sack-to-pressure conversion rate, easily the highest of his career and nearly double what he ran in 2024. He didn't generate more pressure, and he didn't win more reps; he just finished a higher share of the pressures he did get. I think this is the box score lying to you.

I'm not touching Burns as a premium 2026 pick. The name and the sack total will have him going early, but the tape says this was his worst season as a pass rusher in three years wearing a shiny number.

Geno Stone, DB, Buffalo Bills

Geno Stone still gets talked about off that 2023 Baltimore season, and he recorded 104 tackles last season. Geno is more of a rock than a precious stone heading into 2026.

Go back to where this started: 7 INTs and 9 defended passes in 2023, the numbers that got him paid in Cincinnati. It's been dropping ever since: 6 total INTs over his two seasons with the Bengals. However, his tackle total actually climbed to a career-high 104 in 2025, due to a 34% box rate. The ball skills that made him a household IDP name have been shrinking for three straight years running, even as his tackle role grew.

So how is he a potential landmine?

He signed a one-year "prove it" deal in Buffalo, walking into a safety room with Cole Bishop and CJ Gardner-Johnson with no real path to a box role. That’s where the tackle volume is drafted, and that role is in question.

I'm treating Stone as a late-round dart throw at best. Fade the name value.

Dane Belton, DB, New York Jets

Dane Belton finally got real snaps last year and cashed in, but I'm not chasing that role into a crowded Jets safety room.

The workload jump was real. He had 460 defensive snaps in 2024, which went up to 705 in 2025, and his tackles nearly tripled (56 to 119). His alignment remained the same as he played nearly 39% of his snaps in the box. The volume increased his opportunity, which is what we stress in IDP.

However, that opportunity no longer exists.

The Jets have Andre Cisco and Malachi Moore, plus they just traded for Minkah Fitzpatrick. Belton is walking into a three-safety room on a one-year deal with no clean path to a locked-in role—kinda like wandering in the desert on a horse with no name.

Last year's breakout happened because he was the best option in a thin Giants group. Nothing says that repeats behind two established names.

I don't like the depth chart, and he’s not on my IDP radar.

Kevin Byard, DB, New England Patriots

Kevin Byard just posted a career-best interception season, and now finds himself on a new team.

Go back to 2023 and 2024 with Byard: 88 tackles, then 100 tackles, with a real box presence, real slot snaps, a guy who was around the ball at the line of scrimmage with a 30%+ box rate. Last season his tackle total dropped to 68, his box rate got cut nearly in half, and he spent 74% of his snaps as a true single-high deep safety and just 17% in the box. The deepest alignment of his last three seasons by a mile. That's exactly when his interceptions jumped to 7, his highest number since 2017.

He's 33 years old, and the one number carrying his entire 2025 season is the least repeatable stat a defensive back can produce. Playing deeper gives you more chances to read the quarterback, sure, but it doesn't make picks a skill that shows up on command. Take away those 7 picks, and this is a declining safety with a shrinking role having a quiet year.

I'm not paying for the pick total. Byard's box score says career year. His alignment and tackle numbers show a player getting phased into a deep role with New England.

Published Aug 14, 2026, 4:00 AM ET