Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts Matchup Breakdown For Fantasy Football Week 5

• Spread: Steelers -1.5
• Total: 46.5
• Score Prediction (from our NFL Betting Game Model): PIT 24, IND 21

Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Preview

No, it wasn’t hyperbole to say Indy dropped 30 points and still left a very sour taste in my mouth. Accuse me of living in the spreadsheets all you want; there’s no world where 3.9 yards/play, 42.4% success, and -0.12 EPA/play produce consistent offensive output or wins. Sorry, not sorry.

Daniel Jones owns two of the thirteen worst starts this season by EPA/dropback, as well as zero games with a +90 passer rating or yards/attempt over 6.8. Woof. He’s eaten multiple sacks in three of four, without eclipsing 10 rushing yards in a single contest. Double woof. Only the Vikings gain fewer yards/play, and only the Cardinals own a worse yards/pass attempt differential. Don’t be overly fooled by two straight wins; the floor’s extremely low going forward.

Jonathan Taylor’s locked into an alpha bellcow role at over 87% of the Colts’ backfield opportunity share (90 UR), and should be treated as such. However, only one other running back even touched the ball for Indy this season … and he’s only 1% rostered. Hate putting any sort of bad injury ju-ju into the fantasy universe, but Indy’s staff must trust the rookie if he’s accounting for 100% of the non-Taylor touches.

Keenan Allen missed the trip to Merry Old England with an injured groin, which could only mean Josh Downs was destined to go nuclear. Wait, he didn’t? That’s weird. Well, he led the team in targets, right? No again? Hmm, odd. At the very least, I’m sure Downs outproduced Ashton Dulin and Laquon Treadwell. What do you mean no to that also? Yes, odd inner monologue aside, somehow Downs inexplicably finished sixth in scoring out of seven skill players to register a fantasy point … behind Seth McGowan, who hardly plays.

And it’s not like it’s going to get much easier against the Steelers, who get to the quarterback and allow the third-fewest fantasy points/game to the position (12.7).

• Start: RB Jonathan Taylor, TE Tyler Warren
• Sit: QB Daniel Jones
• Sleeper: WR Josh Downs

Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Preview

Save your criticisms — no, it’s not 20-year-old sour grapes over Doug Brien missing multiple kicks in an AFC Divisional Playoff game when I refuse to say anything nice about the Pittsburgh offense. Ok well maybe a teeny tiny bit, but that doesn’t change the fact that for all the throwing this PIT offense does (66.1% pass rate, 42.3 dropbacks/game), they’re still wildly inefficient (-0.17 EPA/dropback, 6.4 yards/attempt, 13 sacks taken). Not a fun watch.

Aaron Rodgers will still make a highlight throw or two every game, but for the sixth-most pass attempts, landing at 22nd in fantasy points per game won’t pay the fantasy bills. Passes consistently come in short of the sticks, and oftentimes inaccurate. No Steelers WR has managed to eclipse a 17-point fantasy score or finish top-13 at the position.

Pat Freiermuth did crack the top-10 in Week 1, though (5-46-1) is hardly worth attempting a cartwheel over. I called this offense molasses in my summer previews, and I'm doubling down — slow, sticky, and really kinda gross. If PIT can’t get it done at home versus the NFL’s second-worst defense in terms of yards/play (6.2), it’s a wrap for the black and yellow.

Alas, it’s not all bad in the Steel City. Rico Dowdle’s toe injury cleared the runway for Jaylen Warren, and he’s taken off since. Averaging 20.0 touches/game over a two-week span (91 UR; 91.9% backfield opportunity share), Warren’s shown abilities as a dual-threat weapon, gaining 6.4 yards/carry to go with a 14.3% team target share. Per HC Mike McCarthy, Dowdle is "making progress" after a workout Friday without setback, but the Steelers aren't yet certain if he'll be available to play versus the Colts. Start Warren regardless; those toe injuries can be tricky.

• Start: RB Jaylen Warren, WR DK Metcalf
• Sit: WR Roman Wilson, WR Michael Pittman Jr., TE Pat Freiermuth
• Sleeper: WR Germie Bernard

Next Week's Bold Headline, Today

Movable force meets stoppable object and absolutely no one’s satisfied, especially those who sat and watched this debacle of a football game. Daniel Jones still stinks, but manages to stink a little less than Aaron Rodgers, who doesn’t have the benefit of a Jonathan Taylor to run cover for his mistakes. Colts win an ugly one and are somehow thinking about a division win.