New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns Matchup Breakdown For Fantasy Football Week 5

• Spread: Jets -1.5
• Total: 40.5
• Score Prediction (from our NFL Betting Game Model): NYJ 21, CLE 20

Cleveland Browns Fantasy Preview

Is Deshaun Watson … good? Feels like I’m taking crazy pills for even making the suggestion, but right now it’s fully warranted. Save the personal feelings; we’re here strictly for analysis between the lines. Currently fantasy football’s QB14, perhaps the most shocking aspect of this renaissance lies with consistency — Watson’s yet to finish outside the QB2 range in any given week. For reference, that list doesn’t include stalwarts Matthew Stafford, Caleb Williams, or Trevor Lawrence. And while we’re generally playing fantasy for ceiling, there’s something to be said for a reliable floor at QB, where points get so consolidated.

Watson hasn’t thrown more INTs than TDs once, with three of four checking all the major boxes for legitimately solid play: +0.10 EPA/dropback, +72% completion, and +8.0 yards/attempt. Not too shabby …

Todd Monken’s push to reintroduce a rushing element to Watson’s approach doesn’t just add a fantasy floor — it’s turning potential drive-killing sacks into scrambles. After taking an abysmal five sacks versus Jacksonville, the Browns’ much-maligned QB owns just six total since. Hate to admit it, but this might work.

Unfortunately for Cleveland’s faithful, not having any semblance of a run game’s suppressed drive metrics — 5.0 plays/drive, 24.7 yards/drive, 2:29 ToP/drive, and 1.5 first downs/drive all rank 30th or worse.  Quinshon Judkins owns 80% of the backfield touch share, so he's still technically a must-start in fantasy, though he’s done extremely little with the opportunities so far (3.0 yards/rush, -0.29 EPA/attempt, 0.0% explosive rush rate). The real issue’s the offensive line, one that also just lost center Elgton Jenkins and is responsible for the NFL’s worst yards before contact/rush by a country mile (0.45).

Receiving’s a mixed bag since targets get spread out in an offense that simply doesn’t run enough plays (there’s that lack of drive efficiency I mentioned coming back to haunt them). KC Concepcion’s earning 7.0 targets/game but at a <5.0 ADoT, they’re not worth much. Conversely, Denzel Boston gets sufficient depth — his 8 targets +20 air yards downfield rank 5th in the NFL. However, Watson’s accuracy wanes at that distance, leaving Boston with just a 58% catch rate and 119 unrealized air yards. There’s a place on rosters for either, but frankly, we’re hoping to have better options against a Jets defense that’s successfully getting to the quarterback.

• Start: RB Quinshon Judkins, WR Denzel Boston, TE Harold Fannin Jr.
• Sit: QB Deshaun Watson
• Sleeper: WR KC Concepcion

New York Jets Fantasy Preview

Big-time inflection point for the J-E-T-S, who just face-planted against an ascending Bears’ defense, after their best offensive outing of the year. Not that we were necessarily relying on Geno Smith in fantasy for anything more than a spot start, last week was the worst iteration of the veteran shotcaller — inaccurate and not challenging deep while taking sacks. Perhaps losing vertical threat Adonai Mitchell hurt NYJ more than expected …

As bad as Gang Green was Week 4, it’s still difficult to lay too much of the blame at the feet of the offense. How many points do you honestly think you’ll score without the ball? Check this out: New York’s 17:15 time of possession versus Chicago wasn’t just the lowest of the year, that would sell this debacle short. We’re talking a difference of 3:44 from the next worst (MIA at MIN) — that’s a +21% gap!

Of course losing star RB Breece Hall won’t help an offense, though it’s worth noting NYJ posted its best yards/attempt (4.2) and success rate of the season (64.3%) without him. In his absence, handcuff Braelon Allen assumed every single one of New York’s backfield touches. While that number’s going to drop considering the Jets ran 32 (?!?) plays against the Bears, Allen’s a must-add for the TD equity alone. If there’s ever a spike week coming, it’s against these Browns, who rank bottom-5 in success rate (56.4%), yards after contact/carry (3.34), and explosive rush rate (10.1%).

Not to be overly apologetic toward the Jets, but I think we have to chalk up last week as an anomaly on the pass-catching side. Even in a floor game, team targets remained so densely consolidated around Garrett Wilson (26.7%) and Kenyon Sadiq (26.7%); both still represent relative values if they can be acquired on the cheap — we know the Jets’ doomsayers are growing louder by the week.  

• Start: RB Braelon Allen, WR Garrett Mitchell, TE Kenyon Sadiq
• Sit: QB Geno Smith
• Sleeper: WR Isaiah Williams

Next Week's Bold Headline, Today

Cleveland’s the more well-rounded team and wins … again. That’s now four wins in a row for the Browns, sparking nationwide convos over pretender or contender.