New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings Matchup Breakdown For Fantasy Football Week 5

• Spread: Vikings -1.5
• Total: 42.5
• Score Prediction (from our NFL Betting Game Model): MIN 21, NO 20

Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Preview

We left off last week with alerts set to high on a Viking offense prime for a letdown, except the Dolphins were just too terrible to act as a proper hurdle. Nevertheless, we’re still easily talking about one of the least productive units in the NFL, ranking 31st or worse in yards/play (4.4), success rate (36.8%), EPA/play (-0.14), and first downs/drive (1.3). It isn’t pretty for the Purple People Eaters.

Not to dogpile Kyler Murray, but through two weeks as a starter, his 11.0 fantasy points/game ranks 31st. Yikes. (whispers … there are only 32 franchises, by the way). Not even sure returning a likely limited Justin Jefferson moves the needle much, though fine, I’ll concede it’s the last bastion of hope.

Keep a very close eye on those status reports, since it appears one and only one Viking WR/TE can thrive per week. Jefferson finished as WR3 Week 1 (8-92-2), Jordan Addison as the WR11 Week 3 (5-90-1), and T.J. Hockenson was the TE1 on Sunday (13-119-0). The downside? No one else scores when it’s not their number being called. All signs point to J-Jeff whenever he’s on the field, so stay extra wary of chasing those Minnesota box scores.

If there’s any good news, it’s the Minnesota run game, at least in fantasy terms. Aaron Jones boasts the fifth-most carries and overall touches since taking over the lead role to himself in Week 2. The bad news? He’s the RB14 in that same timeframe (tied with Quinshon Judkins) and 23rd in fantasy points/snap (0.30). Start him if you can for the volume alone, of course, but realize it’s short-lived. Demond Claiborne’s earning more snaps each week, plus Jordan Mason’s on the mend. So this is as good as it gets for Jones, which means a mid-range RB2 … for now.

• Start: RB Aaron Jones, WR Justin Jeffeson
• Sit: QB Kyler Murray
• Sleeper: TE T.J. Hockenson 

New Orleans Saints Fantasy Preview

As much as I hate admitting how wrong I was regarding this Saints’ defense, it’s producing a fantasy goldmine every weekend. New Orleans games account for an insane 58.3 total points scored/game, which is what’s making me worried while staring at a ~42-point over/under.

Given the ferocity of MIN’s defense, books expect something’s about to give. Yes, the Vikings’ Brian Flores constantly brings the house, but it also opens them up to big plays — their 13.1 yards allowed/catch is fourth-worst, and no one’s allowed more YAC/reception (6.9).

Play volume’s always the name of the game in Kellen Moore’s fast-paced approach, getting QB Tyler Shough more dropbacks than anyone else by a decent margin. At around six dropbacks/game ahead of the field, Shough’s already added nearly a full game’s worth of plays to the ledger. Plus, he runs (18.0 rush yards/game, 1 TD), challenges every blade of grass downfield (23 deep shots; 2nd in the NFL), knows to target his stars, and can function out of play-action. In fact, if he’d stop taking so many sacks, we’re looking at even more consistent top-5 finishes.

Speaking of getting the ball to your best players, Shough understands the assignment. Here’s a good stat to put this degree of volume into perspective — Each of the top two, and four of the top 13 most prolific route runners in the NFL play for New Orleans. Except only three of them actually get targeted.

Bryce Lance is the only player other than Marvin Harrison Jr. to earn 13 or fewer targets on over 130 routes — which means the combination of Chris Olave, Devaughn Vele, and Juwan Johnson soak up just under 62% of all targets on the highest play volume in the league. It’s a fantasy GM’s dream come true, especially if the D continues to struggle.

NO’s ground game’s a total dumpster fire even if the aging Alvin Kamara did just log a top-10 finish (7-23-2; 5-35-0). As the kids say, a dozen touches for 58 yards ain’t it, Chief. He’s averaging just 3.0 yards/carry without a single explosive rush to date. Then, presumed backup Kendre Miller fumbled in the first, resulting in a near-even split with rookie UDFA CJ Donaldson.

• Start: QB Tyler Shough, WR Chris Olave, TE Juwan Johnson
• Sit: RB Alvin Kamara, WR Bryce Lance
• Sleeper: WR Devaughn Vele

Next Week's Bold Headline, Today

Minnesota struggles on offense again, winding up in another dogfight similar to that game versus Chicago — except this time, the offense falls short, and New Orleans grabs a surprising but much-needed win.