New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Football Matchup Breakdown For Week 2

• Spread: Patriots -5.5
• O/U: 42.5
• Score Prediction (from the Fantasy Life NFL Betting Model):  NE 25, PIT 20

Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Preview

Despite escaping Week 1 as the victor, Pittsburgh represented just two of 11 teams to gain fewer than 280 yards yet still make that claim. Not sure there’s any way to slice Sunday’s game in a positive light, even with the aid of a thousand spreadsheets. From offensive macros (4.1 yards/play, 34.4% success rate) to expected points added in either the run (-0.22 EPA/carry) or pass game (-0.38 EPA/dropback), Pittsburgh flatlined against a Falcons defense worthy of respect — but not outright fear.

Does blaming it on veteran QB Aaron Rodgers not playing during the preseason carry enough weight to shirk subjectivity? Not sure, but it’s just worth noting. Our floor here is the literal basement, especially if this offensive line winds up at the lower end of mixed preseason projections — allowing a 43% pressure rate and 3 sacks a game will only end one way over the long term.

As someone with Jaylen Warren bags packed to the brim, plus a stack of worthless Week 1 player prop tickets, trust me, I feel your pain. Again, we could feasibly point a black-and-yellow foam finger of blame at Rodgers’ lack of live repetitions. However, given the copy-and-paste schematics from last year, I’m uncertain how much to shift expectations. 

Perhaps leaning too hard on priors, I just said last week, “as long as your quarterback’s age starts with a four, I’m struggling to see how all these drafted players get home together. The term slow as molasses comes to mind.” Apologies to molasses; it may move faster than this PIT offense.

Pittsburgh continues getting plays off very slowly (7.1 avg play clock at snap) to a highly inefficient output (4.1 yards/play, 34.4% success, -0.36 EPA/play) while dropping back +40 times a game — but the design’s based purely on hitting low-probability deep shots when not dumping it off early. Frustrating stuff at its core. Yet despite the low 68 UR score, that last part will help Warren hold onto fantasy viability, yet subsequently banishes Rico Dowdle to the bench or worse… the wire.

Here’s my favorite Aaron Rodgers stat so far — he’s leading the league in RB targets (11) but also second in deep shot attempts (6), behind only Josh Allen. As I said, it’s all or none. Two different Steeler WRs (DK Metcalf, Roman Wilson) posted ADoTs north of 17 against the Falcons. Now throw Michael Pittman’s 88% route participation into the mix. The result? Players who all can be started by role that you’ll never be excited to play (precisely what I was trying to avoid). 

Lastly, Pat Freiermuth’s the lone Steeler on my add list, going (5-46-1) on 31 total routes run — including 14 from the slot where the vast majority of his production came (4-44-1). Volume’s king at TE. 

• Start: Jaylen Warren (RB28), Pat Freiermuth (TE21), DK Metcalf (WR28)
• Sit: Michael Pittman (WR39), Rico Dowdle (RB32), Aaron Rodgers (QB26)

New England Patriots Fantasy Preview

New England laid an objective egg in their opener, losing star WR A.J. Brown in the process. When you score just 10 points on 4.1 yards/play with 3 turnovers in only one game to analyze, things tend to look worse than they are. Remember, Ernest Jones and the entire Seattle defense have a habit of making teams look impotent. Bet your bottom dollar Pats fans, the sun will come out tomorrow.

I’m buying the dip on Patriots across the board. It starts this weekend, when Pittsburgh’s defensive front-seven needs to show an ability to win more consistently up front if they intend to repeat results (3.5% blitz, 30.8% pressure) — it’s a far cry going from Cooper Rush to Drake Maye.

NE’s pass catching situation’s indeed undergoing a major mix-up without AJB, though it could wind up much simpler than the initial panic might suggest. Both Mack Hollins and Romeo Doubs played every down on the outside after Brown’s departure, with DeMario Douglas occupying the slot every snap but one. 

We hate admitting it, but Hollins doesn’t get enough love in fantasy. At 20% target/route, 2.10 yards/route in a Drake Maye-led offense, he’s earned a bench spot somewhere in 12-teamers. Let the record also state I’m staying higher on Romeo Doubs than the copious amount of rage-drops would lead you to believe. Drops aren’t sticky.

• Start: Drake Maye (QB10), Rhamondre Stevenson (RB21), Romeo Doubs (WR35)
• Sit: Mack Hollins (WR65), Hunter Henry (TE17)
• Sleeper: DeMario Douglas (WR59)

Next Week’s Bold Headlines, Today

• Newsflash: These Patriots are still good (or maybe Pittsburgh’s overrated).
• Steelers allow Drake Maye time to operate, and he makes them pay, reminding everyone why he’s a top fantasy QB.
• Rostering players on PIT becomes fantasy purgatory (I’d probably trade any WR at cost after their first good game).