Matthew Berry's 10 Facts For Week 10 Fantasy Football: Justin Jefferson, Breece Hall & More

Before you set your fantasy football lineups, here are the ...

10 Facts You Need to Know Before Week 10

In the three games where he has NOT scored a touchdown, Derrick Henry has under 6 fantasy points in all of them.
1. His route rate for the season is just 26%.
2. He’s been on the field for just 36% of the Ravens pass plays.
3. Yes, the acquisition of Jacoby Brissett will help, but I’m still viewing Henry as a TD-dependent RB2 the rest of the way.
Since he returned from injury in Week 7, Saquon Barkley has scored in all 3 games he’s played.
1. And yet, even with a touchdown in every game, he’s only RB27 on a PPG basis over that stretch.
2. Even more concerning, he ranks as RB44 in Utilization Score during that period.
3. He averages just 12 touches.
4. And a 4% target share.
5. Maybe the bye week helps Barkley get fully healthy, and his role grows moving forward, but for now it’s hard to view him as anything more than a flex play.
Last week, in his first game back from injury, Breece Hall saw 18 touches.
1. And a 13% target share.
2. Through the first 3 quarters of the game, however, he played only 1 more snap than Braelon Allen.
3. And 8 fewer routes.
4. It’s only a 1-game sample, and it’s certainly possible Hall’s playing time continues to trend up moving forward, but Braelon Allen isn’t going away, and his involvement will limit Hall’s fantasy ceiling.
In his first game since re-signing with the Saints, Audric Estime led the backfield with 16 touches.
1. He saw 68% of the RB rush attempts.
2. And 75% of the RB red zone touches.
3. And the only goal-line attempt.
4. If Travis Etienne remains out in Week 10, Estime will be a viable flex play against a Panthers team that’s been the fourth-best fantasy matchup for RBs this season.
In the 6 games MarShawn Lloyd played before Josh Jacobs returned, he was the RB40 in PPG.
1. And scored double-digit fantasy points … once.
2. When the Packers faced the Vikings in Week 1, their backfield combined for 66 total yards.
3. On 20 touches.
4. With Josh Jacobs expected to miss multiple weeks, both Lloyd and Kaleb Johnson are worth adding in deeper leagues, but I would NOT want to start any Green Bay RB against Minnesota in Week 10.
In 54 career games with Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson is averaging 19.8 fantasy points.
1. And 98 receiving yards.
2. And over 10 yards per target.
3. So far this season, Jefferson is averaging 13.6 fantasy points, 56 receiving yards, and 7.7 yards per target.
4. Even if Jefferson doesn’t get back to those prior averages, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the acquisition of Cousins doesn’t massively improve his fantasy value moving forward.
In Week 9, no WR had a higher target share on the Texans than … Tank Dell.
1. He had a 24% target share.
2. And his aDOT was 14.8 yards.
3. 5 of his 9 targets came on deep passes.
4. He had a 55% route participation, a big increase from the 20% he was at in his first game back in Week 7.
5. Dell needs to be rostered in more leagues.
In his season debut last week, Jordyn Tyson had only a 25% snap rate and just a 35% route participation.
1. However, he was targeted on 5 of his 16 routes.
2. A very encouraging start for Tyson. I’m not sure he breaks out this week, but it’s coming.
Among the 37 tight ends who have seen 25+ targets this season, Tyler Warren ranks 36th in yards per target.
1. And 25th in yards per route run.
2. On the plus side, his 23% target share does rank 4th.
3. And it should increase even further with Keenan Allen and Josh Downs no longer on the team, but it’s going to be really difficult for Warren to be anything more than a low-end TE1 without improving his efficiency.
4. To be clear, this is more a criticism of Daniel Jones than it is of Tyler Warren.
In Week 9, Darren Waller saw a team-high 27% target share.
1. His two highest route shares of the season have come in the past 2 weeks.
2. He’s still not seeing consistent enough usage to be considered a TE1, but he’s a strong streaming option in Week 10 against a Saints defense that’s allowing the seventh-most fantasy PPG to opposing tight ends.

If you want even more analysis and nonsense, I hope you’ll check out “Pregame with Matthew Berry” on Roku and The Roku Channel from Noon ET to 2 PM. It repeats from 3 PM to 5 PM ET and then again from 8 to 10 PM ET.

And if you go to Roku or the Roku Channel app on your Non-Roku TV or on a tablet/phone, just search for it in the Sports Zone. And if you have neither a Roku TV nor the Roku Channel app, you can also check it out on www.therokuchannel.roku.com. Go to Browse, then Sports, then scroll to Top Sports on The Roku Channel…

We have a lot of fun every day, and I promise to make you a smarter fantasy player/sports fan and a much dumber person. It’s 100% free to watch. And, of course, many, many clips of the show are available on my YouTube channel.

I also highly, and I mean highly, recommend joining the Fantasy Football Happy Hour Discord where an amazing group of folks talks fantasy football all day, asking and answering questions along with commenting on my show. It’s a welcoming, smart, and hilarious group, and I can’t tell you how much I enjoy them. I also spend a decent amount of time in the Discord, so it’s definitely the easiest way to get a hold of me if you’re so inclined to do so.

Final plug: A reminder that every Sunday morning I do Fantasy Football Happy Hour: Last Call at Noon ET with Alex Cupps on my YouTube channel ... come and get your questions answered.

Good luck in Week 10 – go get yourself a win!