Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Football Matchup Breakdown For Week 1
John Laghezza breaks down the fantasy football rankings and projections surrounding Week 1's TNF tilt between the Rams and Niners in Australia.
Two divisional rivals add over 7,500 miles to their usual travel as they head to Australia to kick off a game that’s sure to come back and haunt the loser at some point down the road ...
Rams vs. 49ers Matchup Breakdown For Week 1 Fantasy Football
- Spread: Rams -3.5
- O/U: 48.5
- Score Prediction (from the Fantasy Life NFL Betting Model): LAR 27, SF 23
San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Preview
What could be sweeter than a weekday game to kick off a brand new football season? A second one being played with a big-time total the very next day several thousand miles away in the Land Down Under. G’day mates …
As if there weren’t enough moving pieces in this one, the stark difference in travel planning will surely dominate chunks of the TV broadcast. San Fran spent the week acclimating to Australia, munching on Vegemite sandwiches, while Sean McVay’s Rams will try tricking their circadian rhythm by swooping in and out of the Southern Hemisphere before their body clocks know what hit them. Bold strategy, Cotton, let’s see if it pays off.
Regardless of the outcome, this will absolutely get more attention than I want to give, both as it happens and moving forward.
Enough of that noise, there’s a football game to be played! Already right on brand, Kyle Shanahan’s keeping us on our toes in the dark regarding injuries … shocker. And Christian McCaffrey missed practice again with no reports or injury designation. Is he hurt? Being protected in bubble wrap? What we wouldn’t give for some good old-fashioned honesty …
What I can tell you is to drop whatever you’re doing to make sure third-round rookie Kaelon Black isn’t floating around on the waiver wire. I won’t put any injury negativity into the universe before we even begin, but we know the potential fantasy value of Kyle Shanahan’s lead back. Rightfully projected for very little standalone value, Black could be the piece you need.
It’s not all doom and gloom on the medical front, however, as star TE George Kittle practiced without restrictions and, by all intents and purposes, is tracking to play. Currently projected by FL as a backend TE1 (3.6 Rec, 40.3 RecYd), even our big brains in the backroom would admit Kittle’s ceiling can be hard to get a true beat on as an all-or-none player at times.
Los Angeles schemes up defensive zones almost exclusively, where Kittle absolutely thrived last year (23.8% target, 2.45 yards/route, 16.7% success). I’d usually like to get a look at a returning player, but the stakes and opportunity cost are too high for SF to avoid using him if cleared medically.
Ditto for starting Mike Evans (who I never truly believed was injured in the first place), though his projections run considerably lower given the circumstances. The Rams’ creativity in deploying disguised blitz packages earned them the NFL’s third-highest pressure rate (41.8%) in spite of the third-lowest blitz frequency (11.4%). That lack of time for play development often hurts X-type wideouts like Evans, who need more time for deeper routes to mature.
Everyone’s impatiently anticipating the debut of De'Zhaun Stribling, SF’s 33rd overall pick. And while yes, the prospect of extrapolating this preseason’s insane 59.1% target/route is exciting, my expectations remained tempered, to say the least.
Remember, literally none of the Niners’ other skill position players were even on the field when this stuff happened. So while that type of utilization’s surely deliberate and telling, I see it more as trial by fire to see if the rookie can handle fairly intense upcoming WR2/3 duties. Could wind up looking silly in hindsight, but the recent draft steam for Stribling comes off to me as irrational exuberance. I wouldn’t start him Week 1 if presented with any other viable opportunity.
- Start: Christian McCaffrey (RB2), Mike Evans (WR27), Brock Purdy (QB13), George Kittle (TE13)
- Sit: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR53) (ducks)
Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Preview
Los Angeles led the NFL in scoring last season with one of the most consolidated opportunity trees in the league. In other words, if these crucial pieces stay healthy, it’s fantasy gold for everyone involved. Nothing like a player blackjack …
Even in the backfield where Kyren Williams clearly led the way over Blake Corum, we have a rare situation where this backup’s flexworthy. Whatever Williams doesn’t handle quite literally goes to Corum. Would you believe the dynamic duo handled all but nine, or just over 98% of LAR’s running back opportunities? Not only is it borderline unsustainable on its face, but we’re also talking about both RBs boasting potentially the highest upside of any contingency play in fantasy.
Last thing … I’d be remiss not to mention this Rams’ tight end room before wrapping up. Already running +2-TE sets at or near the highest frequency in the NFL, somehow Colby Parkinson, fantasy’s TE6 after Week 10, went widely undrafted. Rectify this.
If your league services first-come-first-serve waivers, I’m jumping on Parkinson before snap number one. San Fran’s defense is a little undersized, posting a bottom-3 tackle success rate (47.1%), as well as bottom-10 finishes in tight end receptions and fantasy points per game to the position. Anytime the Rams take the field, they can explode on offense … unless the jet lag gets them.
- Start: Puka Nacua (WR1), Kyren Williams (RB17), Davante Adams (WR21), Matthew Stafford (QB8), Colby Parkinson (TE29)
- Sit: Blake Corum (RB37), Terrance Ferguson (TE23) (ducks)
Next Week’s Bold Headlines Today
- Injury predictors are down bad as Christian McCaffrey’s not only healthy, but picking up right where he left off as a +24 fantasy/point game player.
- For all the helium surrounding Rams’ TEs this offseason, it’s immediately clear Colby Parkinson was the player to target all along.
- FL projections nail LA’s backfield usage, which winds up being bad news for Kyren. Despite a short TD saving his fantasy day, Blake Corum nearly splitting work looks like a draft-day steal.
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