Los Angeles Rams vs. Buffalo Bills Matchup Breakdown For Fantasy Football Week 5

• Spread: Rams -3.0
• Total: 54.5
• Score Prediction (from our NFL Betting Game Model): LAR 28, BUF 26

Buffalo Bills Fantasy Preview

Buffalo’s currently the NFL’s highest-scoring team, plus the only club besides Jacksonville to boast a +0.10 EPA/rush and +0.20 EPA/dropback — and it’s specifically that balance which makes them so dangerous.

Speaking of dual threats, how about Josh Allen, the Bills’ newest TD-scoring record holder? The consensus QB1 is living up to expectations by outsourcing the position by roughly ~12%. Knock his rushing game all you like, the points count all the same, and the fact he’s the QB16 in passing points/game (14.4) remains irrelevant. If there’s any shame in Allen’s game, it only surfaces when the Bills aren’t pushed on defense, which should not be an issue versus Sean McVay’s Rams.

It's always funny when an offense is such a juggernaut but still makes it difficult to forecast fantasy success. We all thought Dalton Kincaid’s early +20-point/game breakout would sustain somewhat, only to have production completely flatline to 5.7 total points across his next two contests combined. Oof. I’m deferring to the talent, contextual environment, and still extremely strong advanced metrics (21.6% target/route, 3.07 yards/route) to mark Kincaid as a flashing buy-low target.

Then there’s room for one more pass catcher to eat in this offense, though recurring shoulder injuries for DJ Moore make him hard to rely on. For what it’s worth, he’s yet to practice this week, and his status remains up in the air. Therefore, in a rare WR handcuff situation, it’s post-post-post hype sleeper Keon Coleman you want as a ceiling play — he earned 7 targets while running all the routes and producing a big-time box score (6-116-1).

If you can afford to sit James Cook, go find a more challenging league to play in. Currently the RB11 due to less involvement in the pass game than preseason chatter suggested, he’s still commanding over 87% of backfield opportunities for an awesome team. And before anyone starts with Josh Allen consuming all the high-value touches at the goal line, it’s not entirely true. While yes, it’s suboptimal and we’d like all of them, Cook’s 7 goal-to-go carries are exactly the same as Kyren Williams'. Just sayin’ ...

• Start: QB Josh Allen, RB James Cook, WR DJ Moore, TE Dalton Kincaid
• Sit: WR Khalil Shakir
• Sleeper: WR Keon Coleman (if no Moore)

Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Preview

True test for the Rams Monday night. LA's beaten up on the flawed teams they’ve faced (PHI, NYG) while coming away with losses against heightened competition (SF, DEN). Can’t help but wonder if Sean McVay regrets galaxy-braining those Week 1 travel plans, given how disastrous that game went for his offense. For reference, the Rams gained just 290 yards against the Niners and haven’t posted a single game total below 415 since.

Matthew Stafford’s either been really good (two top-10 finishes) or really bad so far (two QB27+ finishes). Perhaps partially explained by a rash of key injuries, the reigning MVPs’ uncharacteristic underpinning metrics (61.1% completion, 14.8% off-target, 80.5 passer rating), topped off by six INTs, are starting to make some of us nervous.  Luckily for Stafford, Buffalo’s struggling to defend the pass, allowing every QB they’ve faced but Justin Herbert to eclipse 270 passing yards. Big spot on deck for LAR; doubt they envisioned a losing record more than a quarter-way through the season.

Not sure if it’s the new norm, but only one Rams’ WR seems to be able to get home in a given week, with the rest sprinkled towards Kyren Williams plus whatever TE is healthy (Tyler Higbee, anyone?). Davante Adams went nuclear for two weeks without Puka Nacua in the lineup, only to reassume a backseat (4-32-0) when the big dog returned to a usual top-5 weekly finish (1-2-1; 9-125-0). Puka’s back running 90% of routes, forcing Adams back into a very volatile, low-floor weekly flex play.

Ahhhh, my weekly “L” for even assuming Blake Corum would be able to chip away at Kyren Williams’ godly workload (91 UR; 18.8 touches/game, 16% team target share, 100% of RB goal-to-go carries). Suddenly, Kyren’s also a target magnet — his 20 targets over this two-week span rank 10th in the league, not just at the position. Worth noting, Williams’ 4.0-yard aDOT doesn’t just lead all RBs; it’s nearly double any tailback with +10 targets. Somehow a great role got even greater …

• Start: QB Matthew Stafford, RB Kyren Williams, WR Puka Nacua
• Sit: WR Davante Adams
• Sleeper: TE Tyler Higbee

Next Week's Bold Headline, Today

As so often is the case, gamers plan, and the fantasy gods laugh. What was initially pegged for the most explosive showdown of the week turns into a defensive battle, and a total letdown for everyone sweating a Money Night comeback. Rams win ugly, which only fans the rumors’ flames surrounding Josh Allen potentially playing hurt.