Is Caleb Williams Making The Year 3 Leap Among Fantasy Football QB Elite?

Do you have a favorite Caleb Williams throw? The TD shot to DJ Moore in the closing seconds against the Packers in the Wild Card Round was jaw-dropping. But the seemingly desperation heave with multiple Rams bearing down on him in the freezing Divisional Round, only for the ball to float into the hands of Cole Kmet in the end zone, was just not of this world. We just might be witnessing a young QB sporting incredible gifts paired with a genius playcaller in HC Ben Johnson, with great weapons at his disposal. Williams may make a Year 3 leap that is Olympian. Ian Hartitz breaks it down as part of his Chicago Bears Team Preview.

Is Caleb Williams poised to erupt in Year 3?

QB1: Caleb Williams (QB7 in Fantasy Life ranks)
QB2: Tyson Bagent

Yes, Caleb Williams completed just 58.1% of his passes in 2025 (32nd among 33 qualified QBs). Also yes…

Williams made a habit of testing defenses downfield, posting the position's ninth-highest average target depth (8.9 yards) and ranking 10th in percentage of passes thrown 20+ yards downfield (12.9%).
The rising third-year QB didn't always get a ton of help from his friends: Only the Broncos (37) and Jaguars (39) dropped more passes than Da Bears (29) in 2025. Their overall drop rate (5.6%) was the fourth-worst mark in the league.
Williams also led the NFL with 42 throwaways. Not necessarily a good thing, but it does make sense when you consider the reality that Williams avoided an NFL-high 22 sacks and had the league's second-longest average time to throw (3.1 seconds).

The latter point was the most impressive improvement in Williams' game from 2024 to 2025. The former No. 1 overall pick has always been incredibly elusive in the pocket, but he managed to go from brutal … to straight-up elite in his ability to avoid taking sacks last season. Being the NFL's fastest QB certainly helped matters.

Caleb Williams percentage of pressured dropbacks that result in sacks:

2024: 28.2% (43rd among 44 QBs)
2025: 10.8% (3rd among 43 QBs)pic.twitter.com/t0rSDjsYYb
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 6, 2026

So yes, Williams has some work to do with making the easy, well easy. But you know how people overuse the phrase, "Only three quarterbacks alive could make that throw?" Well, it actually applies to Caleb. His mixtape of top throws was second to none in 2025.

Moral of the story: Williams is an ascending talent with god-tier playmaking ability, but he just needs to do a bit better job hitting his layups–a reasonable improvement entering Year 2 in Ben Johnson's system. The reigning QB7 in fantasy points per game, Williams is a consensus top-8 QB in the Fantasy Life ranks, with the upside for much more should this offense's young skill-position talents take a collective step forward.

Also note: There were some trade murmurs surrounding Tyson "T-Bag" Bagent earlier this offseason, but thus far, no suitors have emerged. Credit to the former undrafted free agent for filling in admirably for Justin Fields back in 2023, but even then, it's not like we were watching some sort of prodigious performance (6 YPA, 52.6 QBR, 3:6 TD:INT ratio). Deep dynasty rosters could look to stash Bagent in the hopes of an eventual starting opportunity elsewhere, although I prefer the likes of Mac Jones, Tanner McKee and Will Levis.