Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders Matchup Breakdown For Fantasy Football Week 4

• Spread: Colts -3.0
• Total: 47.5
• Score Prediction (from our NFL Betting Game Model): IND 26, WAS 21

Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Preview

Winning football games should never discourage real-life fans, but fantasy gamers? That’s an entirely different story. Wins or losses couldn’t matter less in this thing of ours when we’re chasing fireworks. Yes, Indianapolis finally broke into the win column, but did it in an unimpressive manner offensively, gaining exactly 300 yards on 4.2 yards/play with three turnovers. Yuck.

Indy’s averaging right around a league-average 24 PPG, but that number alone’s doing a lot of heavy lifting. The Colts still rank bottom-5 in yards per game (293.3) and per play (4.7). Ugh. The good news? My growing worries about route redundancy between habitual short-yardage operators Keenan Allen, Tyler Warren, and Josh Downs were assuaged a bit Sunday — plus Washington’s dead last in opposing passer rating (124.4), which can’t hurt.

I told you last week the Colts would need to deepen targeted routes as a collective to succeed. So far so good …

Not only did Daniel Jones post over 6.0 air yards/attempt (7.1 aDOT) or throw beyond the sticks over 30% for the first time (38.9% to sticks) — the whole Josh Downs experience is making my spidey senses tingle. At just 10.9 fantasy points/game with doubts about the IND offense as a whole, there’s still a chance to buy low on Downs. Our first signal rang when he led the team in 12-personnel snaps, and the second’s the final piece of our fantasy puzzle. Check out Downs’ aDOT by week: 5.3, 7.6, 14.0 (81 UR). Let’s go.

One phase of the offense without a care in the world is the Colts’ run game. Jonathan Taylor’s the overall RB5, leading the league in backfield opportunity share (91.4%). Combine over 11% of team target share into the mix, and we’re talking about a potential top-5 overall fantasy player. He’ll face a statistically strong Commanders’ run-stopping unit (0.33 EPA/attempt, 3.8 yards/rush), but their tackle success is poor (48.1%), leading to just under 3.25 yards after contact per rush. Taylor’s fifth in total rushing YAC and always primed for a big game.

• Start: Jonathan Taylor (RB5), Josh Downs (WR17), Tyler Warren (TE4)
• Sit: Keenan Allen (WR35)
• Sleeper: Daniel Jones (QB18)

Washington Commanders Fantasy Preview

Few analysts anywhere wrote up Marcus Mariota more glowingly after losing in relief to the Eagles, yet I still fell entirely flat. Wish I listened a bit more carefully to myself, but let’s be honest, even my more bullish expectations put the veteran backup far shy of +20 fantasy points versus the Seahawks.

Despite a complete inability to establish any semblance of a run game Sunday (2.6 yards/rush, 25.0%success), Mariota shouldered the load with poised play. Goes to show you what accurate passing plus sack avoidance can achieve in small samples. Stands to reason he’s only going to get more comfortable within the system as repetitions increase, and competition simultaneously softens — not sure there’s a bigger step down in talent/schematics than playing the Colts right after the Seahawks.

Indianapolis held an opposing QB below 324 passing yards for the first time last weekend, though this could easily be seen as an equally scathing condemnation of a dysfunctional Texans’ aerial attack. Four separate players already eclipsed 80 receiving yards versus this Colts secondary. My gut says Sunday’s performance will be seen as the anomaly among the bunch.

Receiving timeshares generally kill fantasy ceilings, and no one’s sharing routes as equally as the Commanders. With that, if it can work anywhere, it’d be here. Washington doesn’t throw to RBs or TEs at all, while running one of the highest 11-personnel rates in the league (69%).

As far as usage goes, no single player’s surpassed a 78% route participation rate with Mariota under center, though four different wideouts own a +25% target/route rate (Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs, Antonio Williams, Dyami Brown). It’s going to frustrate at times, but at least Jayden Daniels' injury shouldn’t totally sink those WAS shares — opportunities should consistently be there, for the big two at least.

Regarding the RBs, the Commanders’ backfield is bordering on unrosterable if it weren’t for the injuries piling up everywhere. Washington's attempting to run (27.0 attempts/game); it’s just not working (-0.16 EPA/attempt, 4.1 yards/rush, 39.6% success). Jacory Croskey-Merritt owns the baseline work, but at 3.0 yards/play and a measly 36.0% success rate with zero explosive runs, for how long is anyone’s guess. JCM’s 20 touches Sunday marks the 43rd time this season an RB managed that mark, and no one’s posted a yard/touch nearly as low (2.1). Eventually, he’ll need to produce or lose the majority of snaps outright.

• Start: Terry McLaurin (WR25), Stefon Diggs (WR27)
• Sit: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB26)
• Sleeper: Marcus Mariota (QB19)

Next Week's Bold Headline, Today

Somehow, someway, Washington continues to get stronger in the face of adversity. Marcus Mariota goes out and wins a second straight at home, spawning whispers amongst the Commanders faithful if the NFC East is within their reach.