
IDP Fantasy Football Starts For Week 5: Zaire Franklin, Jeffery Simmons & More
Mike Woellert breaks down the best starts for IDP fantasy football leagues at each position for Week 5 of the season.
We’re just over a month in, and like the fruit at Joe’s Fruit Stand in Seinfeld, I’m starting to trust the data. Same process as always: find the offenses that keep feeding a certain position, then find the guy on the other side who's getting the snaps to exploit. A lot of this week comes down to bad offensive lines. Houston's guards, the Chargers' interior, and Miami's right tackle are all on this list.
Here are my favorite IDP fantasy football starts for Week 5.
Linebacker Starts In Week 5 IDP Fantasy Football
Zaire Franklin, LB, Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Chicago runs more plays than anybody (74.5 a game), and nearly half of them are runs. The Bears have a 49.3% run rate (second-highest), and it's been 55.1% over the last two weeks. That's 36.7 carries a game at 4.94 YPC (fourth), with a league-high 785 rushing yards and 540 of them after contact.
They do it out of heavy sets. Chicago is in 12 personnel on 37.6% of snaps (second-most) and 13 personnel on 19.1% (fourth), and they've used 11 personnel just 42.3% of the time (29th). Over half their snaps come from under center (50.7%), and defenses are answering with heavy boxes 31.5% of the time (third-most). Outside zone is 53.7% of the run game (second), with play action on 33.1% of dropbacks (fourth). When they throw, it's short (68.6%) with a 6.97 ADoT. Green Bay plays zone 77.2% of the time and two-high on 61.0% of snaps (sixth-most), so its linebackers are facing the ball when those throws come out. The Bears are giving up 22.0 off-ball LB tackles per game, tied for the most in the league.
Franklin hasn't come off the field. He's gone 4, 7, 10, and 7 for 28 tackles (7.0 per game) with a 10.7% tackle rate; he's missed one tackle all year, and 97.3% of his snaps are in the box. Green Bay has used dime on 1.2% of snaps, so he's not going anywhere. I'd like more solos (10 of the 28), but with this many plays coming his way, I'll take the assists. With Edgerrin Cooper out, he should soak up quite a bit of the tackle share.
Roquan Smith, LB, Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
I had Kaden Elliss against this Falcons offense last week, and nothing about it has changed. Atlanta still runs it more than anyone (54.9%), and it's been 62.3% over the last two weeks. That's 33.8 carries a game at 5.21 YPC (second) with a 51.8% rush success rate (tied for first) and +0.08 EPA/rush (second). 570 of their 724 rushing yards have come after contact, and their 4.1 yards after contact per attempt is the best in the league.
Outside zone is 54.1% of their runs, the highest rate in the NFL. They're under center on 51.2% of snaps (fifth) and in shotgun less than any other team (41.1%). The Falcons use 12 personnel on 32.1% of snaps (sixth) and 13 personnel on 13.0% (seventh), and the heavy-box rate against them has gone from 24.0% on the season to 31.1% over the last two weeks. When they throw, it's screens (18.9%, most in the league) and short stuff (74.2%), with a league-low 5.53 ADoT. Baltimore plays zone 76.0% of the time and two-high on 66.2% of snaps (fourth-most), which keeps Smith underneath with his eyes on the quarterback, allowing for some rally and trigger tackles in his area of responsibility. Atlanta is allowing 19.8 off-ball LB tackles per game, tied for 5th-most.
Smith has 34 tackles (11, 8, 9, 6), which is 8.5 a game on a 13.7% tackle rate, plus a sack, a pick, and a forced fumble. Baltimore is in dime on 33.7% of snaps (second-most), and he's played every one of them. Only 11 of the 34 are solos, and last week's 6 was his low for the year. I think he gets back to 9 or 10 here.
Demario Davis, LB, New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland doesn't run many plays (57.3 a game, 27th), so I'll get that out of the way first. What they do run sets up well for linebackers. The Browns throw short on 76.5% of their passes, the highest rate in the league, with a 13.6% screen rate (fifth) and a 6.51 ADoT (fifth-lowest). They're in shotgun on 69.0% of snaps (second-most) and 11 personnel on 64.2% (eighth), with some 21 personnel mixed in (9.2%). The Jets play zone 74.8% of the time, so Davis is sitting underneath those throws and not chasing a back in man coverage.
The run game isn't going anywhere. Cleveland is at 3.68 YPC (24th), a 34.3% rush success rate (29th), and -0.19 EPA/rush (28th). Their backs are getting 0.56 yards before contact per attempt, worst in the league, and 318 of their 375 rushing yards have come after contact. It's mostly inside zone (27.0%, fifth), power (13.5%, fourth), and counter (7.9%, third), so a lot of it comes downhill at the linebackers. The Browns are allowing 19.0 off-ball LB tackles per game, tied for seventh-most.
Davis has played every snap and gone 8, 4, 10, and 10. That's 32 tackles (8.0 per game) on a 12.7% tackle rate, with 18 solos, 3 TFL, 5 run stops, and a sack. Jamien Sherwood had 15 tackles last week on 94% of the snaps, so Davis has company. The Jets play dime on 4.0% of snaps, though, and neither one leaves the field. He does have six missed tackles, and I'd like to see that cleaned up.
Robert Spillane, LB, New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Kaden Elliss in Week 3, Nick Bolton in Week 4, and now Spillane. I'm going to keep starting linebackers against the Raiders until it stops working. Vegas is tied with Chicago for the most off-ball LB tackles allowed (22.0 per game) and runs 67.0 plays a game (fourth-most). They run it 43.3% of the time and can't get anything going: 3.13 YPC (32nd), a 31.1% rush success rate (32nd), and -0.24 EPA/rush (31st). They've been stuffed a league-high 37 times, a 31.9% stuff rate.
The personnel is the best part. The Raiders have used 11 personnel on 19.8% of their snaps, the lowest rate in the league, and that dropped to 5.7% over the last two weeks. They're in 12 personnel on 36.2% (third), and it's been 54.6% over the last two weeks. Add 21 personnel on 19.0% (fourth) and half their snaps from under center, and they see heavy boxes 31.0% of the time (fourth-most). One thing to watch: their run rate was 36.9% over the last two weeks.
Spillane has 28 tackles (8, 6, 7, 7) and a 12.4% tackle rate, and 17 of them are solos. He's played all but three snaps this season, and New England has been in dime on 0.4% of snaps. Christian Elliss is out there just as much and has 25 tackles of his own, but against this offense there's enough for both. If, for whatever reason, the Pats go dime, Spillane is the green dot and doesn't leave the field.
Defensive Line Starts In Week 5 IDP Fantasy Football
Jeffery Simmons, DT, Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
Houston can't block the interior. The right guard spot has allowed a 9.4% pressure rate, the highest in the league, and left guard is at 8.2% (fifth). Ed Ingram has given up 10 pressures on 77 pass-blocking snaps, and Keylan Rutledge has allowed 14 pressures and 2 sacks. As a team, the Texans have allowed 65 pressures (eighth-most) and 12 sacks (tied for fourth-most).
They also give you a lot of chances. Houston drops back 42.8 times a game (fifth-most) and throws on 67.3% of plays (fourth). It's 11 personnel on 68.9% of snaps (sixth), mostly out of shotgun (61.0%), and they hold the ball: a 9.83 ADoT (fifth-deepest) with short throws on just 57.2% of attempts (31st). Defenses have blitzed them only 18.7% of the time (31st), so that pressure is coming from four-man rushes. Tennessee rushes four on 78.1% of dropbacks (fifth-most), so Simmons is going to have to win on his own.
The run game gives him a floor. Houston is at 3.51 YPC (29th) with a 34.4% rush success rate (28th) and a 24.1% stuff rate (sixth-highest), and they run power on 25.3% of carries, the highest rate in the league. A lot of those runs come right at the interior. The Texans allow 9.5 DT tackles per game, tied for fourth-most.
Simmons has 20 tackles over his last three games (6, 10, 4) with 8 run stops, 3 TFL, 2 sacks, and 12 pressures, and he's played 86%, 98%, and 84% of the snaps. You don't see that from interior guys. He didn't get a pressure on 32 rushes last week, and that's the one thing I didn't like.
Maxx Crosby, EDGE, Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
New England is giving up a 48.6% pressure rate (tied for second-highest), and it's been 51.9% over the last two weeks. That's 72 pressures, the third-most in the league. Left tackle is at 7.4% (sixth) and right tackle at 8.1% (seventh). Will Campbell has allowed 11 pressures, 7 of them in the last two games, and Morgan Moses has given up 2 sacks.
The Patriots take their time. They throw short on 56.8% of their passes, the lowest rate in the league, with a 9.37 ADoT (seventh-deepest) and deep shots on 16.1% of attempts (sixth). Their quarterback scrambles on 10.1% of dropbacks (second-most). They're in 11 personnel on 59.3% of snaps, and that's been 66.9% over the last two weeks. Vegas rushes four on 74.0% of dropbacks (eighth-most), and Crosby doesn't need the help.
His sacks haven't caught up to the pressure. He has 27 pressures on 129 pass-rush snaps (20.9%), 9 of them last week, and just 2.0 sacks. His snap share has gone 80%, 87%, 86%, and 91%.
Tackles are where he's been light: 8 on the year (2, 1, 2, 3). New England should help with that. They allow 15.5 edge tackles per game (tied for fourth-most), they've been stuffed 26 times (third-most), and they run man/gap on 41.0% of carries (second). I think the squeaky wheel gets the grease this week.
Zach Allen, DT, Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are getting beat inside. Their guard and center spots have combined to allow a 20.0% pressure rate, third-highest in the league. Right guard is the worst of it at 8.1% (third). Cole Strange has given up 12 pressures, 8 of them in the last two weeks, and center Jake Slaughter has allowed 8 more.
As a team, LA is allowing a 44.8% pressure rate (seventh-highest), and it was 51.9% over the last two weeks. They've given up 65 pressures (eighth-most) and 12 sacks (tied for fourth-most) with an 8.3% sack rate (seventh). They throw short on only 57.3% of passes (30th) and use play action on 31.7% of dropbacks (seventh), so the ball stays in the quarterback's hands. The Chargers are in 21 personnel on 31.0% of snaps (tied for second-most), so there's often an extra back in to help, and the pressure is still getting there.
Allen has 20 pressures (3, 5, 8, 4) on 125 pass-rush snaps, a 16.0% pressure rate, with 3.0 sacks and 3 TFL. He's played 60%, 82%, 70%, and 63% of the snaps. Denver blitzes on 40.3% of dropbacks (third-most), so he's getting one-on-ones inside.
Don't count on the matchup for tackles. The Chargers allow 5.3 DT tackles per game (27th). Allen has 13 on his own (5, 1, 2, 5) with 6 run stops, and I'm fine with that as long as the pressure keeps coming.
He's my DL16 this week.
Boye Mafe, EDGE, Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
Miami's right tackle spot has allowed an 8.7% pressure rate (third-highest), and Austin Jackson has given up 11 pressures and 2 sacks. The Dolphins are allowing a 46.9% pressure rate as a team (fourth-highest) with an 8.6% sack rate (sixth).
Same story as last week with Dallas Turner: Miami holds the ball. They have a 9.92 ADoT (fourth-deepest), throw short on 58.8% of passes (28th), and scramble on 10.9% of dropbacks, most in the league. They're in 21 personnel on 31.0% of snaps (tied for second-most) and 12 personnel on just 7.6% (31st). The Bengals are 7.5-point favorites, so Miami should be throwing in the second half.
Mafe's playing more every week: 65%, 69%, 75%, then 85% of the snaps. He has 17 pressures (5, 7, 2, 3) on 114 pass-rush snaps (14.9%) and 2 sacks. Last week was his best game, with 5 tackles, 3 TFLs, and a sack. Cincinnati blitzes less than any team in the league (17.2%) and rushes four on 79.8% of dropbacks (third-most), so nobody's scheming these up for him. I’m hoping they blitz a bit more often, because like Tom Cruise in A Few Good Men, the Dolphins can’t handle the blitz; allowing a 54.8% pressure rate when blitzed.
I'm not counting on tackles. He has 9 (1, 2, 1, 5), though Miami does allow 14.0 edge tackles per game (tied for seventh-most). What worries me more is that the Dolphins run a league-low 52.5 plays a game. I'm starting him anyway. All it takes is a few big plays.
Defensive Back Starts In Week 5 IDP Fantasy Football
Nick Emmanwori, S, Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are the heaviest offense in football. They're in 21 personnel on 40.8% of snaps, the highest rate in the league, and 11 personnel on just 31.6% (31st). They're under center more than anyone (56.6%), they see fewer light boxes than any other offense (28.9%), and the heavy-box rate against them was 37.4% over the last two weeks.
They run it 46.1% of the time (seventh) at 4.77 YPC (seventh), and their backs are getting 1.91 yards before contact per attempt (third-most), so they're reaching the second level untouched. They also throw screens on 13.8% of dropbacks (fourth) and throw short on 63.6% of their passes. Seattle plays more zone than any team in the league (88.6%), so its defenders see those throws and rally to them. San Francisco is allowing 11.8 safety tackles per game, second-most.
Emmanwori plays like a linebacker. He's been in the box on 62.5% of his snaps this season and hasn't lined up deep once. Over the last two weeks, he was at the line of scrimmage on 97% and 98% of his snaps, and his snap share went from 52% to 78%. He has 12 tackles, 9 stops, and a sack on 101 snaps.
He's still not a full-time player yet, and San Francisco runs just 57.0 plays a game (28th). I don't care much. Seattle is in dime on 15.0% of snaps (seventh-most), and he's on the field for those too.
Christian Izien, S, Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Izien went from 36% of the snaps in Week 2 to 97% in each of the last two games, and he had 11 tackles in both. He's up to 25 tackles on 156 snaps (16.0% tackle rate) with 17 solos, 4 run stops, and a sack last week. Take advantage of these numbers while Brian Branch is on the shelf.
He's getting there from all over. Izien has been in the box on 33.8% of his snaps and in the slot on 20.8%, and he was at the line of scrimmage on 66% of his Week 3 snaps and 57% last week. Detroit plays base on 45.1% of snaps (fifth-most), and its defense has been on the field more than any other in the league (72.0 plays a game).
Arizona is a decent spot for him, not a great one. The Cardinals throw short on 75.2% of passes (third-highest) with a 6.25 ADoT (fourth-lowest) and run 66.0 plays a game (seventh). Detroit is in zone 77.8% of the time (13th) and allows 3.81 yards after the catch per reception, the lowest in the league. The Lions are getting to the ball. They use 13 personnel on 20.1% of snaps (third-most), and that was 24.1% over the last two weeks, with heavy boxes 33.8% of the time in that span. They allow 6.8 slot tackles per game (tied for fifth-most) but only 8.3 to safeties (22nd). I'm betting on the role more than the matchup.
Tykee Smith, S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
I know Tykee hasn’t been the pinnacle of production, so hear me out. Dallas gives up tackles at both spots Smith plays: 10.3 per game to safeties (seventh-most) and 7.0 to slot corners (tied for third-most). The Cowboys throw short on 70.8% of their passes (ninth) with a 7.15 ADoT, and 48.2% of their carries go outside (seventh). Tampa Bay plays zone 77.6% of the time (14th), so those short throws are being caught in front of him.
This is a spread offense. Dallas is in 11 personnel on 72.0% of snaps (fifth-most) and shotgun on 64.4% (seventh), and they see light boxes 52.4% of the time (fifth). They drop back 41.8 times a game (eighth). Smith isn't getting pulled into the box by tight ends this week. Tampa Bay puts him there anyway. The Bucs play single-high on 64.8% of snaps (third-most) and have the highest heavy-box rate in the league (34.2%).
Smith has been in the box on 39.6% of his snaps and deep on 28.8%. He was at the line of scrimmage on 70% of his snaps last week, up from 56% and 42%. He's played 97% of the snaps and has 20 tackles (4, 5, 5, 6), 14 of them solo, with 6 run stops and a forced fumble.
He hasn't had a big game yet, and Dallas only runs it 33.2% of the time (27th). But the Cowboys are 9.5-point favorites, and if they're up late, they'll be running at him.
He could play near the LOS a bit more over the next few weeks with Antoine Winfield out.
Cole Bishop, S, Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
This is my deep play. The Rams run 69.0 plays a game (third-most) and are allowing 11.5 safety tackles per game (third-most). They drop back 44.3 times a game (third-most) with a 10.04 ADoT (second-deepest), so a lot of their catches are made downfield, where the safeties are. Buffalo plays zone 83.1% of the time (sixth-most), which keeps Bishop's eyes on the ball.
The Rams have used 13 personnel on 30.8% of snaps, the highest rate in the league, and they see heavy boxes 30.1% of the time (seventh). The trend isn't great, though. Over the last two weeks, that's down to 20.1% in 13 personnel and up to 73.6% in 11, and their run rate fell to 27.7%. When they do run, it's man/gap on 49.5% of carries (most in the league) at 4.83 YPC (fifth), with 1.95 yards before contact per attempt (second) and 49.5% of carries going outside (fifth).
Bishop's the Bills safety who plays down. He's in the box on 41.7% of his snaps and deep on 24.8%, and he's been at the line of scrimmage on 65%, 72%, and 53% of his snaps the last three weeks. He hasn't left the field in three games. He has 25 tackles (7, 6, 5, 7) with 15 solos, and Buffalo's defense has faced 68.0 plays a game (second-most).
He hasn't had a ceiling game yet. The floor has been steady, though, and it's hard to find more volume than this.
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