Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons Matchup Breakdown For Week 3 Fantasy Football

• Spread: Packers -6.5
• O/U: 44.5
• Score Prediction (from the Fantasy Life NFL Betting Model):  GB 23, ATL 17

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Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Preview

Thank goodness Michael Penix is back; it’s entirely too early in the season to start hating the quality of the NFL product. After an impossibly bad offensive start to 2026 (8.0 PPG, 4.2 yards/play, -0.43 EPA/play), it’s a fresh start for the dirty birdies who simply should not be this bad. Falcon drafters, rejoice!

From boasting two skill players in the top-15 overall ADP to a full-on weekly fade, it’s been a whirlwind of a fortnight for Atlanta. Well that was then, this is now, and as they say — yesterday’s price is not today’s price. Sure, Penix hasn’t necessarily lit the spreadsheets aflame (career 7.2 yards/attempt, +0.10 EPA/attempt, 85.8 passer rating) but it’s an enormous upgrade for fantasy. Why? The former 8th overall pick understands the assignment — facilitate your playmakers.

For anyone down on their premium Falcons, check out the best Penix stat I could find. Would you believe just over 66% of his career targets have gone to either Drake London, Bijan Robinson or Kyle Pitts? The cavalry is coming, especially for London drafters … any type of continuation on his 34.9% target/route, 3.1 yards/route combo with Penix is pure insanity.

All things considered, the fantasy recipe’s looking pretty good going forward. Both the backfield and target tree are consolidated for a team down early in the standings in a suddenly tough division. With no time to fool around, I’m fully expecting the ATL offense to revolve around its stars. 

Defensively for the Packers, Penix has a track record (though stunted) of playing his best ball against the zone, and I’m curious to see if Green Bay mixes up coverage schemes at all in this one. They’ve run man at one of the lowest rates in the NFL in favor of base Cover-2 packages, then relying on a league-best 71.7% tackle success rate to close out plays. The secondary’s been beatable, and it could repeat Sunday.

• Start: Bijan Robinson (RB5), Drake London (WR13), Kyle Pitts (TE17)
• Sit: Jahan Dotson (WR96)
• Sleeper: Michael Penix (QB32)

Green Bay Packers Fantasy Preview

Green Bay escaped by the skin of their teeth in MetLife Sunday after getting jobbed by the Zebras in Week 1 in Minnesota. They’re still thought of as a quality squad with playoff aspirations, yet without a drastic improvement to the run game, there’s no chance for GB to sustain a winning record through the winter.

Obviously, losing a player of Josh Jacobs’ ilk will hamper any ground game, but through two games we’re bordering on malpractice. Green Bay’s currently sitting at 29th or worse in EPA/attempt (-0.40), yards/rush (3.3), rushing success rate (35.9%), and stands as one of only four teams remaining without either a +20-yard carry or a rushing TD. Yikes.

MarShawn Lloyd’s a wonderful personal story, the type to make me wonder if you’re heartless for rooting against. With that, more than half his carries resulted in two or fewer yards, and just seven RBs with +15 carries boast a lower yards after contact per attempt (2.11). Now the sample’s small and analysis mostly anecdotal, but for my money, Kaleb Johnson looked like the more explosive Packer running back. It wouldn’t shock me at all to see him usurp a good deal of the base work, with Lloyd bumping Chris Brooks into the more conventional backup pass-catching role. 

Doubtful Green Bay will keep running into the tackles, continually defining insanity (doing the same thing expecting different results) for long — especially against the likes of Divine Deablo and Za’Darius Smith in Atlanta’s newly forming pass-funnel defense. The Falcons rank top-5 in all the critical run-stopping metrics, having yet to allow a single +20-yard carry or rushing TD. Sound familiar?

Few teams’ pass-catching rooms have produced more focused opportunities than the Packers so far, and it makes perfect sense. Green Bay spent the offseason vacating targets, apparently in full understanding of what they had in the combination of Christian Watson and Matthew Golden. Both starting WRs have turned in an elite +88% route participation rate, averaging +9.0 targets/game with +2.2 yards/route gained. I’d go sniffing around their managers, seeing if anyone’s looking to sell high.

Unfortunately, just a couple snaps in Sunday’s tilt versus NYJ, WR3 Jayden Reed suffered a nasty neck injury which could cause significant time missed (Get well soon, Jayden). After departing, it was actually blast from the past, Skyy Moore, to soak up the majority of routes. The former second-rounder managed three targets with very little to show for it, though worth noting one deep shot traveled over 40 yards in the air.

Moore’s role is currently capped but deserving of a watch list entry based on this juicy little nugget. While the Packers only run 11-personnel at the ninth-lowest rate (51%), they generate the highest pass rate in the NFL when lined up that way (88%). Best way to translate for fantasy? Circle Moore as a potential streamer when the Packers are listed as a heavy underdog or play a game with an elevated total. 

• Start: Jordan Love (QB9), Christian Watson (WR9), Matthew Golden (WR23), Tucker Kraft (TE8)
• Sit: MarShawn Lloyd (RB38)
• Sleeper: Kaleb Johnson (RB39), Skyy Moore (WR102)

Next Week’s Bold Headline, Today

• Atlanta’s improved, but still not good enough to win. Green Bay abandons the ground game early, knowing Atlanta’s got no way to stop explosives through the air. At least we can start our Falcons again.