Five Things To Know For Super Bowl 60: The Best On-Paper Matchups, RB Rooms and More

Super Bowl week is here! Yeah! Hell yeah! Football!

Just 60 minutes of organized violence separate us from seven long, cold months of Sundays without the greatest sport ever invented. Let's celebrate football's national holiday with a look at how the Seahawks (-4.5) and Patriots match up in terms of:

What quarterback is playing better at the moment?
Which running back room is most likely to put on their Superman cape?
Which offense's pass catchers have the better on-paper matchup?
What special teams unit is most capable of swinging the game?
Who wins Super Bowl 60?

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Super Bowl 60 — Five Things You Need To Know

What Quarterback Is Playing Better At The Moment?

Key word: Moment. It's virtually impossible to find a situational stat that painted Drake Maye as anything other than one of the league's top QBs during the regular season, but the going hasn't been quite as easy in recent weeks.

Among 132 quarterbacks to take at least 25 dropbacks in a single postseason over the past decade …

Not great for Mr. Maye, and while we're dealing with a small sample size against awesome defenses, the latter pressure-to-sack ratio is especially concerning, considering this was largely the *one* concerning feature of his game from the regular season. The Patriots' second-year signal-caller does a lot of good when the play breaks down thanks to his arm talent on the move and scrambling ability (third in total scramble yards in 2025), but Maye has taken a LOT of sacks relative to his peers when the pocket has broken down this season.

Maye scrambling was largely the only consistent positive from the Patriots' offense in Denver two weeks ago. Still, just like a young Josh Allen, finding the right balance between creating explosive off-script goodness while limiting negative sacks and fumbles is paramount in bringing the best out of the 23-year-old QB.

As for Darnold: There's also a case to be made that his best football was largely played earlier in the season as well, but credit to the ex-Jet/Panther/49er/Viking for stacking together some quality performances during the Seahawks' last three must-win contests.

Note that Maye is literally coming off his two worst performances of the season when looking at his chart.

Edge: Darnold. Who had the better overall season? Maye. Who would, literally, any team in the NFL want leading their team in the 2026 season? Maye. Who has objectively been the better QB over the last month of action? Darnold. We'll see what wins out on Sunday!

Which Running Back Room Is Most Likely To Put On Their Superman Cape?

The chart below denotes every running back's yards after contact and tackles avoided per rush in 2025 (including playoffs).

All of Kenneth Walker, Rhamondre Stevenson and even Zach Charbonnet (ACL, IR) were among the league's toughest runners to get to the ground this season.

We've seen Walker really start to rack up production in the absence of Charbonnet:

Week 18: 16-97-0 rushing, 4-36-0 receiving
Divisional Round: 19-116-3 rushing, 3-29-0 receiving
NFC Championship: 19-62-1 rushing, 4-49-0 receiving

Overall, the artist known as K9/KW3 has posted dominant marks in snaps (62%) and rush attempts (66%) in two playoff contests, although George Holani returned in the NFC Championship and was the primary pass-down back in terms of route share (43% vs. 40%).

The problem for Walker: This Patriots defense has been TOUGH whenever high-priced DT Milton Williams has been healthy enough to suit up this season.

With Williams (15 games): 82.9 yards per game allowed, 3.8 yards per carry, 4 TDs
Without (5 games): 145.7 yards per game allowed, 5 yards per carry, 8 TDs

Meanwhile, another featured back has emerged in New England. And for good reason: Stevenson has made the most out of his opportunities as a rusher (first in Next-Gen Stats' rush yards over expected per carry) and receiver (first in yards per reception among RBs), and clearly has earned more trust from the coaching staff. This was never more apparent than in the AFC Championship when TreVeyon Henderson played just four total snaps!

New England's overall playoff utilization …

Note that Henderson played 26 and 25 snaps in the first two rounds of the playoffs. It'd make sense if OC Josh McDaniels at least dials up some gadgety-esque touches for the home-run hitter. Reminder: Nobody had more rushes of 50-plus yards than the Ohio State rookie in 2025.

Of course, the Patriots, just like the Seahawks, have their work cut out for them on the ground. Overall, no defense posted a better EPA per rush mark than Seattle this season—no individual has eclipsed 100 yards in a single game against this group through 20 games of action.

Edge: New England. I fully respect Walker's ability to make something out of nothing, but did you see those stats I just mentioned for this New England backfield? Stevenson is No. 1 in rushing yards over expected per carry and yards per reception? And his backup leads the league in monster plays?! Maybe with a healthy Charbs we could've given the lean to Seattle here, but give me the Patriots in this current simulation we're living in.

Which Offense's Pass Catchers Have The Better On-Paper Matchup?

Let's meet the contenders from Seattle first:

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Yards per route run is a fun stat because it takes our primary measurement of success (yards) with the largest actual sample size of opportunity (routes). How good was JSN in 2025? Well, his average of 3.68 yards per route run this past season is good for the third-best single-season mark of the last decade. He is in ELITE company.
Rashid Shaheed: The return specialist has averaged just 21.7 receiving yards per game in 11 contests with the Seahawks, but the ex-Saint did haul in a b-e-a-utiful 51-yard bomb from Darnold in the NFC Championship, and OC Klint Kubiak has managed to at least scheme up some big plays for Shaheed as a rusher (10 carries for 91 yards).
Cooper Kupp: Came up big in clutch third-down and late-game situations in the NFC Championship despite 2025 otherwise producing career-worst counting numbers.
Jake Bobo: Had two catches for 20 scoreless yards in the regular season … and two catches for 34 yards and a TD in two playoff games.
AJ Barner: He's a perfectly fine underneath TE target *and* the team's official tush-push QB when the situation calls (The Barnyard?). Overall, Barner has picked up the first down on 10 of his 11 rush attempts this season—that 87.5% conversion rate is the highest mark among 59 qualified rushers, and it's not particularly close!

And for the Patriots:

Stefon Diggs: ESPN has receiver scores that rank 110 wide receivers … and none other than Mr. Diggs finished first this season with a 92 score. Puka Nacua (90) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (87) were the only other receivers over 80.
Kayshon Boutte: Only Alec Pierce (11.9) averaged more yards per target (11.4) than the Patriots' field-stretching specialist this season. Boutte also oddly owns ace Texans CB Derek Stingley.
Mack Hollins: The big-bodied hater of soup, shoes and cats returned from injury in the AFC Championship and promptly racked up a team-high 51 yards. Hollins joins Boutte as two of the game's more efficient field-stretchers: They're the only pass catchers to catch at least two-thirds of their targets this season with an average target depth over 12 yards.
DeMario Douglas: The Patriots' shifty slot maven ranked fifth in yards after the catch per reception (7) in 2025.
Kyle Williams: The speedy rookie turned 10 receptions into a whopping 209 yards during the regular season. Williams managed to clock two of Next-Gen Stats' top-18 fastest ball carrier times despite his limited touches.
Hunter Henry: Gained a career-high 768 yards in 2025, although Henry has totaled just 17 scoreless yards in his last two games after a big 3-64-1 performance against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round.
Austin Hooper: Has caught just one pass in the playoffs despite still posting 59%, 34% and 41% snap rates. Hooper joins Jake Bobo as probably the most degenerate, yet technically possible, first TD bets out there.

As for the matchup at hand: It's tough all the way around! We are looking at the top two scoring defenses from 2025 after all.

While it's fair to say JSN could have a more difficult time than usual when lined up against Christian Gonzalez, we might not actually see that one-on-one matchup too often. Overall, Gonzo hasn't played more than six snaps in the slot all season long, while Smith-Njigba is coming off season-high marks inside (19) while also continuing to see plenty of work from the backfield. A similar sentiment is true for No. 1 Patriots WR Stefon Diggs, who spent nearly the same amount of time in the slot (365 snaps) as he did out wide (335) this season.

The one "weakness" of sorts for both defenses comes down to the performance against tight ends, but even then we aren't exactly looking at anything too rough: Both the Seahawks (11th) and Patriots (13th) were below-average defenses in fantasy PPR points per game surrendered to the position, although none of their postseason opponents managed to exactly expose this on-paper flaw in an overly meaningful way.

Edge: Seahawks. It felt nice to give some love to the other guys here, but let's face it: Jaxon Smith-Njigba was arguably the single best pass catcher in the entire NFL this season, and he certainly clears the relatively low bar in this specific contest. There's a reason why JSN has the game's best MVP odds among any non-QB (+550).

What Special Teams Unit Is Most Capable Of Swinging The Game?

In terms of overall goodness: This is a STRONG lean to the Seahawks.

Special teams EPA per play: Seahawks (+0.12, 2nd), Patriots (-0.03, 20th)

Field goal ability also generally goes to Jason Myers and the Hawks, as even Patriots K Andres Borregales' superior hit rate from long distance is skewed by the reality that he has a far smaller sample size than Myers (5 attempts vs. 12).

Field goal %: Seahawks (86.3%, 14th), Patriots (81.6%, 24th)
Field goal 50+ %: Seahawks (75%, 10th), Patriots (80%, 8th)

Punt and kick return game? The edge continues to go to Seattle, although Patriots CB Marcus Jones deserves a lot of credit for his excellence as a punt returner. After all, Jones is first all-time at the moment in career yards per punt return (14.3)!

Net yards per punt: Seahawks (42.7, 11th), Patriots (39.7, 25th)
Yards per punt return: Seahawks (15.4, 2nd), Patriots (15, 3rd)
Yards per kick return: Seahawks (29.3, 2nd), Patriots (25.3, 20th)

Okay, last variable: Do the Patriots maybe block more kicks than the Seahawks? Answer: No.

Kicks blocked: Seahawks (3, tied for 2nd), Patriots (1, tied for 17th)
Own kicks blocked: Seahawks (1, tied for 14th), Patriots (1, tied for 14th)

Edge: Seahawks. And it's not particularly close (with all due respect to Marcus Jones!).

Who Wins Super Bowl 60?

The Seahawks seem to boast a slight advantage in terms of who has the better defense … a slight advantage on better offense (at least in recent weeks) … and a big advantage on special teams. Throw in the reality that Jaxon Smith-Njigba looks a lot like the best offensive player on either sideline, and give me the Seahawks coming away with their franchise's second Super Bowl victory by a score of 24-13.

Two additional prop bets I like:

Over 2.5 players to attempt a pass (+160 on DraftKings). This is always a fun one to sweat because you can get there with one trick play (think Joe Mixon, Jauan Jennings TD passes) OR simply by getting a backup QB to attempt a throw, either due to injury or a blowout (like Kenny Pickett last season). Sign me up!
Rashid Shaheed Super Bowl MVP (+4500 on FanDuel). A defensive slugfest that swings on a return touchdown and maybe a big play on offense? Hell yeah—as a wise woman once said: Scared money don't make money.

Enjoy the game, everyone!

Players Mentioned in this Article

JaxonSmith-Njigba
WRSEA
PPG
16.84
Proj
16.21
SamDarnold
QBSEA
PPG
14.09
Proj
15.45
DrakeMaye
QBNE
PPG
19.45
Proj
16.94
KennethWalker
RBKC
PPG
12.23
Proj
15.74