Fantasy Football Regression Candidates: Bijan Robinson Set To Boom

Touchdowns are one of the most difficult statistics to project in fantasy football. They are random and fluky and can be taken away in the blink of an eye. So, naturally, we're going to try to predict some touchdowns for the 2026 season.

Makes sense.

Every year, certain players see massive spikes or drops in touchdowns, which can obviously impact their fantasy upside. Let’s take a look at who is in store for more and fewer touchdowns this season.

RELATED: 2026 fantasy football projections

Touchdown Regression Candidates For The 2026 Fantasy Football Season

Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL

2025 TDs: 7 rushing, 4 receiving

Somehow, arguably the best running back on the planet scored just seven rushing touchdowns last season. That tied for 21st among all players and is almost entirely a Tyler Allgeier stat. According to the Fantasy Life Utilization Report, Robinson accounted for just 48% of Atlanta’s rush attempts from inside the five-yard line. That put him outside the top 25 running backs and tied with Allgeier, who tied Robinson with five goal-line carries. Robinson also compiled only 32 red zone carries, which trailed players like Chris Rodriguez, Kyle Monangai and Kareem Hunt. And his 0.6 carries per game from inside the five-yard line were good (or bad) for 30th among all running backs.

Entering the 2026 campaign, Allgeier is now gone, and while the Falcons added Brian Robinson this offseason, I’m solely convinced they did it just to confuse the living hell out of fantasy players everywhere. Seriously, make sure you triple-check when selecting Bijan in your fantasy drafts, y’all. Even if Atlanta’s offense remains average at best, the departure of Allgeier should lead to a higher share of the high-usage touches for Robinson this season.

Chase Brown | RB | CIN

2025 TDs: 6 rushing, 5 receiving

Just stay healthy, Joe Burrow.

Burrow missed Weeks 3-12 of last year and, as you’d expect, the Cincinnati offense wasn’t the same. During that stretch, the Bengals weren’t sustaining drives or scoring touchdowns at nearly the same rate as you’d expect from an offense of their caliber, which is obviously going to hinder Brown’s touchdown potential.

Weeks 3-12 (without Burrow):

36% drives with a score (20th)
21% drives with a TD (23rd)
15% rushing TD rate (32nd)
59.4 plays per game (21st)

During that Burrow-less stretch, the Bengals posted the lowest rushing touchdown rate in all of football (15%), while Brown scored just two total touchdowns in that span. Things did improve once Joe Flacco took over at quarterback from Weeks 6-12, as the Bengals climbed to 11th in percentage of drives with a TD (11%) and sixth in percentage of drives with a score (46%).

But we all knew this offense could be elite again.

Weeks 13-18 (with Burrow):

47% of drives with a score (6th)
34% of drives with a TD (6th)
29% rushing TD rate (24th)
68.0 plays per game (1st

Burrow returned, and Brown lived up to the offseason hype, helping fantasy players win a championship. From Weeks 13-18, he averaged 22.2 PPR points per game, while scoring eight total times during that stretch. If Burrow can play all or even the majority of the year, Brown could score as many total touchdowns as almost any running back in football.

Emeka Egbuka | WR TB

2025 TDs: 6

Egbuka’s rookie season started off red hot, scoring five touchdowns over his first five career games. However, he only scored once from Week 6 on, and really slowed down during the second half of the season. Part of that was due to Baker Mayfield playing at well below 100%, as Egbuka posted just a 52% catchable target rate following the bye. But Egbuka also wasn’t playing as well, even dropping a wide-open touchdown against the Saints.

A more consistent sophomore season is likely.

Of course, Mike Evans shockingly won’t be in Tampa Bay for the first time in his career, opening up more routes and touchdown opportunities for Egbuka. Evans missed a lot of time last year, while Jalen McMillan was sidelined for nearly the entire season. However, both returned to the lineup in Week 15, relegating Egbuka to a much smaller role. From Week 15 on, Egbuka ran just 57% of the routes and recorded a 14% target share. During that same stretch, Evans accounted for a whopping 50% of the Bucs’ end zone targets, averaging 1.3 such looks per game (third-most). A bounce back from Baker and the departure of Evans should boost Egbuka’s touchdown totals in Year 2.

Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF

2025 receiving TDs: 7

Yeah. Mike Evans clearly has an impact on touchdown scoring.

Let me preface this by saying this is strictly from a receiving standpoint. I am not factoring in rushing touchdowns in any capacity here. McCaffrey was somehow the only 49ers offensive player to stay healthy last season, leading to even more pass game usage than usual. His seven receiving scores were the fifth-most in a season by a running back since 2000. Because so many San Francisco pass-catchers were sidelined, McCaffrey ended up seeing a whopping 31.7% of the team’s targets from inside the 10-yard line. That was the 10th-highest rate in all of football last year, and the highest by a running back since David Johnson in 2018 (34.8%). The addition of Evans will bump that rate down quite a bit, while George Kittle saw 22% of the team’s end zone targets last season.

RJ Harvey | RB | DEN

2025 TDs: 7 rushing, 5 receiving

If Harvey was on your fantasy team last year, you were grateful for the randomness of touchdowns.

Taking over for the injured J.K. Dobbins down the stretch, Harvey scored six touchdowns from Weeks 11-18, ranking as fantasy’s RB13 during that span. He handled 80% of the short down and distance snaps, as well as 75% of Denver’s rush attempts from inside the five-yard line. Harvey’s role surely would have grown over the course of his rookie season, but from Weeks 1-10, Dobbins was the clear lead in Denver, commanding 51% of snaps, 65% of the rush attempts and 70% of the carries inside the five. Fantasy players were grateful for the randomness of touchdowns because without them, Harvey would have been very disappointing. Among 64 running backs with at least 50 carries last year, Harvey ranked:

59th in EPA/rush (-0.15)
52nd in YPC (3.7)
51st in success rate (36.3%)
62nd in explosive rush rate (2.74%)

Entering the 2026 season, Dobbins should be viewed as at least the 1A, and likely the favorite for early goal-line work, despite Harvey’s late-season touchdown surge.

Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI

2025 TDs: 11

Perhaps my stance will change if/when the Eagles finally trade A.J. Brown, but even then, I still expect regression. After failing to catch more than five touchdowns in any season through his first seven years, Goedert exploded for nine scores last season. He accounted for 40.9% of the Eagles’ targets from inside the 10-yard line, good for the second-highest rate in all of football. The Eagles often dialed up designed underhand/shovel passes to Goedert at the goal line, which accounted for five of his scores. I just don’t expect that to happen again this season, especially with a brand new offensive coordinator in Philadelphia once again.