Fantasy Football Predictions Leveraging Week 4 Betting Market Data

Panic Time in New England

There were plenty of question marks for the Patriots heading into this season. They made it to the Super Bowl last year, but they did it against one of the softest schedules in recent memory. Even their AFC playoff opponents felt subpar: the Texans couldn’t stop shooting themselves in the foot on offense, while the Broncos were missing QB Bo Nix. When they finally faced a “real team” in the Super Bowl, they got embarrassed by the Seahawks.

Some regression was to be expected against a first-place schedule this season, but I don’t think anyone expected things to be this bad. Specifically, Drake Maye has taken a massive step backward. He was the runner-up MVP last season, and by the advanced metrics, he probably should’ve won it. For fantasy purposes, only Josh Allen outscored him at quarterback.

Through three weeks, Maye doesn’t resemble anything close to the same player. He’s thrown for just one touchdown with six interceptions, and he added two fumbles vs. the Jaguars last week. Maye has averaged just 4.2 adjusted yards per attempt after posting a 9.5 mark last year. Until he turns things around, it’s hard to trust anyone on this offense.

Maybe a matchup vs. the Bills will wake him up. They’re the kings of the AFC East, and if the Patriots want to dethrone them, they need to find a way to compete in this matchup.

Unfortunately, the sharps don’t appear very bullish on their chances. They’re all the way up to 6.5-point underdogs, with plenty of sharp action on the Bills. There’s also sharp money coming in on the under, pointing towards minimal offensive production for New England.

It may be time – at least temporarily – to pull the plug on the Pats. I’m personally leaning towards benching him for Geno Smith in my two-QB home league.

Load Up on Falcons-Saints

It is crazy how important Michael Penix is to the Falcons’ offense. Outside of Bijan Robinson, their offense did nothing in the first two weeks. With Penix back in the equation last week, they erupted. They torched the Packers for 35 points and 498 yards of total offense, both of which shattered their marks in their first two contests.

This week, they draw a matchup vs. the Saints. New Orleans has played in three-straight high-scoring affairs to start the year. They ultimately rank 11th in points and eighth in yardage on offense, while their defense ranks in the 20s in both departments. In terms of EPA per play, the Saints rank 13th on offense and 26th on defense.

The total in this matchup currently sits at 48.5 points, which is tied for the third-highest mark on the slate. There has also been some sharp action on the over, so the pros are expecting a high-scoring affair.

Both teams have some under-the-radar players who could warrant attention for fantasy purposes. For New Orleans, Devaughn Vele has placed himself firmly in the WR3 discussion, while Juwan Johnson looks like a weekly starter at TE. Kendre Miller also deserves some consideration after Travis Etienne went down with an injury last week.

The Falcons’ offense is a bit more condensed. Bijan Robinson and Drake London are among the best in fantasy at their respective positions. However, maybe Kyle Pitts can get a bit more in the mix this week. His best performances last year came without Penix, but London and Robinson can’t do all the damage every week. Someone else is going to have to chip in, and Pitts is the most-likely candidate.

Sell High on Washington

Every year, there are a few results that just make no sense. Last week’s win for the Commanders is definitely one of them. They were without Jayden Daniels, yet they still managed to rack up 33 points against an elite Seahawks defense.

With that in mind, it’s not surprising that the public loves the Commanders this week vs. the Colts. After all, if they can do that kind of damage vs. Seattle, they should have no issues vs. Indianapolis.

The sharps clearly disagree. There has been significant sharp activity on Indianapolis in the first London game of the season. They see the Commanders’ win over the Seahawks as a massive fluke. Washington managed just 258 yards of total offense vs. Seattle, and they were outgained by more than 175 yards. The big difference was the turnovers. The Seahawks turned it over three times, and one of them was a pick-six. Ultimately, the Seahawks lost that game more than the Commanders won it.

For fantasy purposes, it’s a great spot for the Colts’ offense to do some damage. Washington’s defense remains a subpar unit, ranking 24th in EPA per play. As long as they can survive the time change, their top producers should put together strong showings.

Conversely, the Commanders’ players might be a bit overvalued. It’s still very hard to trust any of them with Mariota at quarterback, and if you can trade someone like Terry McLaurin while his value is up, it’s something worth considering.