Fantasy Football Predictions Leveraging Week 3 Betting Market Data: All Aboard The Jets?

Keep Targeting the Lions

The Lions have been a fantasy goldmine to start the season. They have an elite offense, while their secondary has been decimated with injuries. They’re missing both of their starting safeties, while Terrion Arnold was released following his offseason incident. They lost another safety in Week 2, with Avonte Maddox suffering a season-ending injury vs. the Ravens.

It’s created an elite environment for fantasy production. The Lions and Saints combined for 61 points in Week 1, and Detroit and Buffalo hit 72 points in Week 2. Overall, the Lions offense ranks fourth overall in points scored, while their defense is 31st. It’s hard to beat that combination.

The Jets will get their crack at the Lions this week. While they clearly don’t have the same offensive firepower as the Ravens, there’s no reason they can’t duplicate what the Saints did against them in Week 1. The sharps are expecting another high-scoring affair, with the over on 47.5 points garnering interest.

You’re obviously starting all of your Lions options in this contest, while Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson are also no-brainers. However, you can go a bit deeper with the Jets as well. Adonai Mitchell has been a big part of the offense through two weeks, and he has plenty of flex appeal in this matchup. Geno Smith could be a worthy starting QB in superflex leagues, while even Kenyon Sadiq has a bit of appeal in deeper formats. Ultimately, until the Lions prove they can stop anyone, feel free to load up on their opponents for fantasy purposes.

All Aboard the Ravens Express

Just like the Lions, the Cowboys are another team that could be involved in plenty of shootouts this season. Their defense was supposed to be improved, but they have not looked the part through two weeks. The Giants walked all over them in Week 1, and the Commanders did the same in the first half of Week 2. Washington fell apart once Jayden Daniels went down with an injury, but the Cowboys’ numbers are still ugly to start the year (30th in defensive EPA).

Meanwhile, it looks like business as usual for the Ravens’ offense. They were not the same unit last year with Lamar Jackson banged up, but they’re fourth in EPA per play through the first two weeks. They took their foot off the gas late against the Saints last week, but their offense has still been operating at a very high level.

Baltimore is expected to get Zay Flowers back in the lineup this week, which should only help their chances vs. the Cowboys. The sharps have taken notice, with Baltimore getting bet all the way up to -3.5 despite being on the road. The total has also jumped above 52 points, giving the Ravens the top implied team total on the slate.

Jackson, Flowers, and Derrick Henry do most of the damage for Baltimore, and they should be considered near the top of their respective positions in Week 3. However, Mark Andrews has also moved back into clear-cut starter territory, posting a 25% target share through the first two weeks. Rashod Bateman is also worth some consideration in this matchup. He won’t see as large a role as he did last week sans Flowers, but with Ja’Kobi Lane out of the picture, he should be the team’s clear-cut No. 2 receiver in an elite matchup.

New Coach, Same Steelers?

For years, Mike Tomlin was one of the best in the business at covering the spread. That was particularly true as an underdog. When coaching as a divisional home underdog – like they are this week vs. the Bengals – the Steelers were an elite 11-1-2 ATS.

Of course, Tomlin is no longer prowling the sidelines for Pittsburgh. Instead, Mike McCarthy has taken over as head coach. McCarthy also owns an elite ATS record, but his biggest successes have come as a home favorite. It will be interesting to see if the Tomlin DNA still remains in this squad, or if removing him from the equation will impact their ability to cover.

The sharps aren’t seeing value with the Steelers in this spot, but they are with the under. There’s been sharp action on Under 42.5 points, which makes plenty of sense. Pittsburgh’s offense has been putrid through two weeks, while the Bengals have been fortunate in their first two outings.

Divisional contests can occasionally turn into a slog, and that feels like a distinct possibility in this matchup. You’re obviously starting the Bengals’ studs, but that’s about where I’d draw the line. I’m not sure the Steelers have a single start-worthy player on their roster at this point, especially if Rico Dowdle is healthy enough to suit up.