Fantasy Football Impact After Drake London Signs Extension With Atlanta Falcons

The NFL news cycle never sleeps. One day after a pair of monster trades, the Falcons officially agreed to an extension with top receiver Drake London. Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the deal is for four years and $141M, and it can potentially reach $150M with incentives. It makes London the third-highest paid receiver in the league, trailing only Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Ja'Marr Chase, and it makes him the highest-paid player in Falcons’ history on a per-year basis.

That’s a ton of respect for London, who has always been a good but maybe not elite player. He was tied for the WR6 last season in terms of 0.5-PPR points per game, so he’s going to have to elevate his play to justify his new contract.

The big question is, can he do it? Let’s dive into London’s fantasy outlook for the upcoming season.

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Drake London Fantasy Outlook After Signing Falcons Extension

London has turned in back-to-back quality campaigns for the Falcons. He had 100 catches, 1,271 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2024, and he followed that up with 68 catches, 919 yards and 7 touchdowns in just 12 games last season.

London’s fantasy production has been tied pretty heavily to who has been at QB in Atlanta. When Michael Penix took over at the tail end of his rookie season, he leaned on London far more than Kirk Cousins did. London tallied a massive 39% target share and 49% air yards share in his three games with Penix under center, and he responded with an average of 23.1 PPR points per game. That included a monster performance in the final week of the regular season, racking up more than 40 PPR points and finishing as the top scorer at the position.

London’s fantasy outlook looked strong with Penix set to start his sophomore season, and London came out of the gates hot. He wasn’t quite as good as he was at the tail end of the previous year, but he still posted a 31% target share through the first seven weeks. He averaged 15.8 PPR points per game during that stretch, and he finished as a top-5 scorer at receiver in two of six outings.

Unfortunately, Penix suffered a knee injury in Week 7, and he would play his final game of the year in Week 11. London dealt with an injury of his own, but he was not the same player over his final three games with Cousins. His target share dipped to just 23%, while his fantasy production slipped to 8.3 PPR points per game.

That makes the Falcons’ QB job paramount for London heading into next season. Penix has struggled with injuries dating back to his collegiate career, and the Falcons added Tua Tagovailoa as competition this offseason. It’s reasonable that Tagovailoa claims the starting job at some point, and he’s actually listed as the favorite to start Week 1 using the prediction market Kalshi. Tagovailoa is trading at a 65% chance to start, while Penix is trading at 44%.

Tagovailoa has supported a quality passing offense in the past, and he propelled Tyreek Hill to a monster campaign three years ago. Unfortunately, he hasn’t looked like the same player since. Given that we don’t know what the Falcons’ passing attack would look like with Tagovailoa under center, that would have to be considered a negative for London’s fantasy outlook.

Should You Target London in Fantasy?

London is going to cost you a premium pick in fantasy drafts this year. He’s currently coming off the board with an ADP of 18.9 on Underdog, making him the seventh receiver drafted. It puts him just ahead of guys like George Pickens (22.7), Nico Collins (23.2) and the freshly traded A.J. Brown (24.0).

That’s basically in line with how our expert rankers see things. London is the consensus No. 7 receiver in our rankings, and all four of Kendall Valenzuela, Matthew Freedman, Dwain McFarland and Ian Hartitz have him at either WR7 or WR8.

Personally, I’m not thrilled to pay that type of price tag with the uncertainty at quarterback in Atlanta. London has the potential to finish as a top-5 receiver with Penix, but I would have him outside the top 10 if we knew Tagovailoa were going to start the season at QB. It’s definitely a situation worth monitoring as the offseason progresses, but it makes London a risky selection in the middle of the second round.

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