Falcons QB Competition Update: Who Will Win Out Between Michael Penix & Tua Tagovailoa?
Fantasy

Falcons QB Competition Update: Who Will Win Out Between Michael Penix & Tua Tagovailoa?

Ian Hartitz breaks down the QB competition between Tua and Michael Penix in Atlanta.

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The Falcons are sporting arguably the most up-in-the-air QB competition of any team this offseason between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix. Ian Hartitz breaks down what it means for fantasy as part of his Atlanta Falcons 2026 fantasy football team preview.

ATL_falcons-logo.svgWho Will Win The Falcons' Gross QB Competition?

Well, Fantasy Life's group of alleged experts is giving Tua Tagovailoa the edge for now, but it does appear to be a fairly wide-open competition.

On the one hand, Tua has played some high-level football over the years. On the other hand, he did not put his best foot forward during a ROUGH 2025 campaign.

Tua Tagovailoa's career EPA per dropback:

  • 2020: -0.11 EPA per dropback (33rd)
  • 2021: +0.03 (19th)
  • 2022: +0.18 (3rd)
  • 2023: +0.15 (3rd)
  • 2024: +0.21 (4th)
  • 2025: -0.01 (30th)

Maybe the new digs bring out the 2022-2024 version of Tagovailoa, but it's tough to be too optimistic about the former No. 5 overall pick. At his best, Tua combines pinpoint accuracy with quick enough decision-making to attack all three levels of the field. Unfortunately, recent years have featured plenty of struggles with taking care of the football (career-high 15 interceptions in 2025) along with lackluster off-script ability. We can't give Mike McDaniel and Tyreek Hill all of the credit for the team's high-octane 2022-2024 offenses, but they very well might deserve most of it!

And then there's Penix, who is expected to be fully cleared and ready to play by Week 1 … if needed. The No. 8 overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft flashed some fun arm talent in three starts during his rookie campaign, but failed to consistently produce anything close to high-end results in a larger 2025 sample.

Penix among 43 qualified QBs in 2025:

  • EPA per dropback: +0.08 (23rd)
  • Success rate: 47.8% (18th)
  • Yards per attempt: 7.2 (t-14th)
  • Completion rate over expected: -3.6% (40th)
  • Passer rating: 88.5 (t-24th)
  • PFF pass grade: 58 (38th)

Credit to the rising third-year QB for consistently taking care of the football (1.6% interception rate is the 10th-best mark over the past two seasons) and avoiding sacks (12.2% pressure-to-sack rate ranks third), although, like Tua, there's not a lot to love here in the whole off-script/mobility department.

Ultimately, the latter point is what makes this competition relatively "whatever" in the grand scheme of fantasy football land. Both QBs have massive injury red flags, and whoever wins the job doesn't figure to have too long a leash inside of a likely run-first offense with *one* wide receiver that defenses have to overly worry about. Mid-late-round superflex darts should be thrown at Tua due to the reality that we have seen some fantasy upside from him in the not-so-distant past, but even then: Meh.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Tua Tagovailoa
    TuaTagovailoa
    QBATLATL
    PPG
    11.4
    Proj
    131.0
  2. Michael Penix
    MichaelPenixQ
    QBATLATL
    PPG
    13.0
    Proj
    125.5

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