Examining 3 Fantasy Football Projections: Too High On Kyle Pitts?
John Supowitz reviewed three players' fantasy football projections for 2026, including Kyle Pitts, Christian Watson and more.
Are you buying these projections for the 2026 fantasy football season? Our group of experts definitely sweat through so much data when they come together on these numbers, but some players may need some further observation to see if their predicted stats for this season may be too high. These are the players I’m selling at their current projections.
Join Our Newsletter
Trusted by 400,000+ fantasy football players. Get access to Fantasy Life's free award winning newsletter and tools, all in one step.
By registering or logging in, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
3 Players Who May Not Live Up To Projections
RJ Harvey | RB | Broncos
Going into last season, many fantasy managers considered RJ Harvey a valuable stash play, backing up the injury-prone J.K. Dobbins. In news that shocks nobody, Dobbins got hurt last year and played only 10 games.
Harvey became a viable part of the Broncos’ backfield after their bye week. From Weeks 13-18, he was the RB8.
The Broncos brought Dobbins back for 2026, and as long as he is healthy, he will take away from Harvey’s snap share.
The Broncos also drafted Jonah Coleman in the fourth round, and he averaged 5.6 yards per carry and 10.3 yards per reception in his last three seasons at the University of Arizona and the University of Washington.
Broncos HC Sean Payton bluntly stated in the offseason that upgrading at the running back position was a “must.” This shows that he does not believe Harvey can be a workhorse back.
The term “running back by committee” is great for regular football because it keeps those players fresh, but in the fantasy world, that is a “he who shall not be named.”
Denver was not a heavy running team last year, ranking only 24th in run-play percentage (41.2%). That could go even lower, with the Broncos making the blockbuster trade for former Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle to enhance the air attack for Bo Nix.
Christian Watson | WR | Packers
The football world was scratching its head when the Packers signed Watson to a four-year, $92 million extension. It’s difficult to justify giving that kind of extension to someone who has missed 12 games in four years and has never had a 700-yard season (receiving).
When he’s in your fantasy lineup, he’s the dreaded boom-or-bust. Last season in 10 games, he finished inside the top 10 three times but outside the top 30 five times. He’s never been a consistently reliable fantasy receiver, with only four top-10 finishes from 2022 to 2024.
You could attribute Watson’s boost in production last season to the injuries to Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed, while rookie first-round wide receiver Matthew Golden struggled to make an impact.
A major concern is how one-dimensional a route runner Watson is. He runs mostly deep routes. Last year, he ran the deep out more than any other route at 20%, followed by the post at 18%. He also struggles to get open and has never finished inside the top 70 in target separation.
Another concern is that Jordan Love also likes to spread the ball around. Last season, Watson led the team with a 19.9% target share, but Kraft wasn’t far behind with 18.8%.
Kyle Pitts | TE | Falcons
Pitts is another player who just came into a lot of money after a small sample of elite production, signing a three-year, $54 million deal. He is coming off his best fantasy season since his breakout rookie season, finishing 2025 as the TE2.
Why Pitts may not be able to replicate that production is that he faces different circumstances. Last season, Pitts did not have a good start, ranking as the TE16 from Weeks 1-12. A majority of those games were with Michael Penix behind center, and it wasn’t until Kirk Cousins became the starting quarterback that Pitts began to produce. This was also when Drake London was dealing with an injury, and of the six games where Pitts finished with 10 or more fantasy points, London was not on the field for four, and in one game he was being eased back into the lineup.
There are a lot of questions for the Falcons’ offense coming into this season. The big one is the quarterback situation and whether it’s Penix or Tua Tagovailoa under center. Penix has not proven himself in his young career, and the Dolphins wanted Tua out so badly that they were willing to take on $99.2 million in dead cap.
A healthy London will likely be the primary target. Lastly, there’s Bijan Robinson, who finished third in the league last year with 366 touches.
Unlock Our Tools!
Stop hitting the paywall. FL+ gives you access to our expert rankings, projections, mock draft simulator, start/sit, and all the tools you need – all personalized to your league.
Players Mentioned in this Article
Published