Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup Breakdown For Fantasy Football Week 5

Two-score spreads on quick Thursday turnarounds are a bit unusual, but anytime the Cowboys take the field, there’s a good chance of fantasy fireworks in the forecast.  If you listen carefully, you can still hear CeeDee Lamb getting targets …

Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Fantasy Football Matchup Breakdown For Week 5

• Spread: Cowboys -9.5
• Total: 46.5
• Score Prediction (from our NFL Betting Game Model): DAL 30, TB 18

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Preview

Forced to turn to debuting rookie Jalon Daniels under center, the entire winless Buccaneers’ outlook has quickly gone from bad to worse. If there’s any hope for Daniels’ fantasy prospect, however, it’s volume plus running (eyebrow raises). Asked to drop back 40 times in his first taste of the NFL, Daniels played about as poorly as you’d expect from a six–year college vet who didn’t get selected in the draft (19-30; 148-1-3, 8-55-0 -0.09 EPA/dropback, 46.9 passer rating, 4.9 yards/attempt). That said, 55 rush yards from a QB won’t ever not be interesting to us.

As if an unheralded prospect taking over at QB won’t stunt an already struggling run game enough, this TB backfield situation’s also gone from bad to worse. Bucky Irving managed to maintain viability through three weeks via volume and role, which now appear to have gone the way of the dodo. Sorry. Not only did Kenneth Gainwell earn the only two RB targets in Sunday’s loss, plus one-third of the red zone snaps, but Sean Tucker soaked up the one and only goal-line carry. With multiple backs nipping at his heels, I’m trying to trade Bucky asap — before it sinks in for everyone else.

Tampa still ran 11-personnel at a 90% clip, so there’s going to be plenty of routes for Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, and Cade Otton. With that, what they’re worth going forward is a completely different story. Doubt you can turn them into much via trade; just know maybe not all hope is lost.

Unfortunately, one player whose stock’s plummeted into droppable territory is my guy Ted Hurst. Once earning every single possible snap for TB, Hurst got out-snapped in the first half by Tez Johnson, dragging both into the fantasy shadow realm. Pour one out … Audible sighs all around, even against an extremely poor Cowboys’ defense allowing a league-worst 6.4 yards/play.

• Start: WR Emeka Egbuka, WR Chris Godwin
• Sit: QB Jalon Daniels, RB Kenneth Gainwell, TE Cade Otton
• Sleeper: RB Bucky Irving

Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Preview

Questions surrounding Dallas’ ability to sustain +30-point offensive outings as defenses toughened were answered in resounding fashion again Sunday. Facing a very stout Houston front seven, the Boys kept the offensive juices flowing, with one of the NFL’s most prolific batteries at the center of all attention.

Dak Prescott’s making a great case against needing rush yards from your fantasy QB before considering them great. He’s playing some of the best ball of his career in terms of accuracy (70.0% completion, 8.0% off-target) and sack avoidance (3.8% sack) — which will almost always translate into fantasy production, especially when considering the surrounding talent. Not to mention Dallas is preparing to face Tampa’s (in)famous pass funnel defense, featuring the second-lowest pressure rate in the NFL (23.9%).

Attached to this high-octane pass attack is easily one of the sweetest fantasy RB roles in the game. Accused by some (slowly raises hand) of not possessing enough burst to dominate such an important spot, Javonte Williams’ +20-point/game average ranks with the all-consensus first-rounders.

Now, I’m still not necessarily taking the “L” on the lack of explosiveness claims (3.7 yards/attempt, 2.73 yards after contact/carry, 19.4% negative rush rate), but it doesn’t matter. Williams currently commands +81% of all backfield opportunities, including +11% of the team target plus all the goal-line work. Last RB note: Tyler Goodson jumped into the DAL backup role, providing instant contingency value as a stash in case of emergency.

Little surprising, however, that the league’s second-highest scoring offense continues producing as much frustration as anything in their WR room — excluding CeeDee Lamb, of course. Lamb’s 498 receiving yards are tops at the position, on the back of some borderline crazy advanced metrics (32.2% target/route, 3.48 yards/route). Wow.

Downstream from that obvious breakout’s the equally aggravating George Pickens, still waiting for anything better than a top-23 weekly positional finish. Obviously, a backend WR2 ceiling was never the intention upon drafting, but this situation still screams buy-low to me. Pickens earned five targets over 20 air yards already, contributing to a growing 117 unrealized yards on the season, and a measly 1.9 YAC/reception stands at less than half his career average. Ryan Flournoy’s not making things easier running 31.5 routes/game, but the defense stinks so bad right now, it’s baking a pie big enough for everyone to eat.

• Start: QB Dak Prescott, RB Javonte Williams, WR CeeDee Lamb, WR George Pickens
• Sit: TE Jake Ferguson
• Sleeper: WR Ryan Flournoy

Next Week's Bold Headline, Today

Dallas’ offense goes off for +30 yet again, except this time George Pickens explodes. Tampa’s down bad, spiraling, and counting the days until Baker’s return.