Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Matchup Breakdown For Fantasy Football Week 4

• Spread: Bills -7.0
• Total: 48.5
• Score Prediction (from our NFL Betting Game Model): BUF 28, NE 22

New England Patriots Fantasy Preview

What the heck. Precisely what the entire New England organization’s thinking (with less profanity) after three weeks in the books as the lowest-scoring team in the league. Lowest? Yes, the AFC’s reigning champ have inexplicably been outscored by the Titans and tied with the Dolphins. Double yikes. I know the Pats lost alpha WR A.J. Brown, but it’s not like he was on board for last season’s ride. Suddenly, letting vertical threat Kayshon Boutte walk for a part-time DB plus a seventh-round pick hardly seems worth it.

Not sure where to start analyzing Foxboro’s dumpster fire that doesn’t require me to take a long look at my process for pumping Drake Maye all summer. Could you blame me? Prospect pedigree plus a tangible step forward in 2025, and success in big spots resulting in a Super Bowl appearance. Maybe those schedule hounds were onto something because the fact of the matter is … Maye’s stunk.

15 QBs with +20 pass attempts committed one or fewer turnovers in 2026. Meanwhile, Maye coughed it up seven times already! As if that wasn’t bad enough, check out my favorite New England Patriots stat. Twelve teams are responsible for an EPA/rush worse than -0.10, while eight earn that same dishonor on the passing side. However, just one team’s on both lists. Can you guess who? Yup …

Consider frustration as a given up and down New England’s fantasy landscape, even in the RB room, where we displayed the most confidence. Of all the arguments over Rhamondre Stevenson versus TreVeyon Henderson, how many people’s answer was actually “neither”?

Yes, that’s right, we’re +6% of the way through the 2026 season, and the Patriots failed to produce a single weekly RB finish inside the top-15 overall. Henderson could be taking the lead and quietly becoming a buy-low target, but it’s risky. Sorry to say, but you’re basically stuck starting them both. Sheesh …

Over and over, injuries to a star wideout continue proving to be a more difficult gap to bridge than losing a starting running back. We see it in Houston missing Nico Collins and here in New England losing A.J. Brown — playing time’s not a sufficient substitute for fantasy production.

The solution? It’s boring and borderline desperate, but Mack Hollins leads the team in everything but TDs (Eli Raridon; 1) on the back of solid advanced metrics (21.9% target/route, 2.14 yards/route). Sigh. Wish it was Romeo Doubs, but the target-earning volume’s not there.

Last mention for any desperate flex streamers. Leave a light on for DeMario Douglas this weekend. Sure, production’s been spotty, but who hasn’t? Nevertheless, Pop’s still second in team targets, catches, and WR/TE end zone opportunities while serving as the primary guy — something Buffalo’s incapable of defending so far. The Bills have allowed 7 catches for over 102 yards per game to the slot.

• Start: Drake Maye (QB13), TreVeyon Henderon (RB30), Mack Hollins (WR50)
• Sit: Rhamondre Stevenson (RB27), Hunter Henry (TE18)
• Sleeper: DeMario Douglas (WR71)

Buffalo Bills Fantasy Preview

Beast. Buzzsaw. Infinity Gauntlet. Wagon. Get as deep in your laudatory bag as possible; you’re going to fall short describing the Bills’ current offensive trajectory. Currently top-3 in PPG (33.7), EPA/play (0.20), average drive distance (38.3), plus both +20-yard carries and +20-yard receptions, no one’s been able to slow them down whatsoever. Absolute nightmare for opposing coordinators …

If it feels like every other QB campaign imaginable pales in comparison to Josh Allen’s 31.3 fantasy points/game average, you’d be right — it’s never been done before. However, unlike Lamar Jackson, Allen’s production disproportionately does skew towards running. Not like it's a bad thing or going anywhere, I just found it interesting that he’s produced the lowest percentage of fantasy points through the air in the NFL (48.4%). Just saying, if you’re facing Allen Sunday hoping for a miracle, the best chance for divine delivery is ceding goal-line touches to James Cook (currently tied at 5 apiece). The passing stuff’s good but not great … he still takes too many sacks and can be careless with the ball at times, turning into INTs.

BUF’s pass-catching room’s a two-headed monster, perfect for fantasy. The combination of DJ Moore plus Dalton Kincaid accounts for an incredible 43% of team targets, 61% of air yards, and 55% of receiving yards. Wow. Slot WR Khalil Shakir’s earned some opportunities, but the low aDOT has killed any ceiling. Of 86 total WR/TE to earn +12 targets in 2026, Shakir’s 1.16 fantasy points/target ranks 73rd. Mind you, that’s on the NFL’s top-scoring offense. Thanks, but no thanks.

• Start: Josh Allen (QB1), James Cook (RB7), DJ Moore (WR24), Dalton Kincaid (TE5)
• Sit: Khalil Shakir (WR52), Keon Coleman (WR83)

Next Week's Bold Headline, Today

It’s not in the spreadsheets, my gut, or anywhere in between — there’s just something about watching this crazy league long enough that makes me think somehow the Patriots come out on top. Drake Maye gets his groove back, the Bills look human, and we’re all left scratching our heads.