Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions Fantasy Football Matchup Breakdown For Week 2

Talk about a primetime matchup built for bright lights. Fireworks headline the schedule, featuring the highest total of our brand-new season — starring two defenses that combined to allow a ridiculous 159 plays from scrimmage last week. Get your popcorn ready …

RELATED: Week 2 Fantasy Football Rankings

Bills vs. Lions Matchup Breakdown For Week 2 Fantasy Football

• Spread: Bills -3.0
• O/U: 53.5
• Score Prediction (from the Fantasy Life NFL Betting Model):  BUF 28, DET 24

Detroit Lions Fantasy Preview

The Lions secured the dub Sunday by the skin of their sharp teeth, barely squeaking by the Saints on the back of a missed game-winning FG to end regulation. Hey, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good …

The good news lies with Detroit’s offense, which played good, not great (5.1 yards/play, +0.01 EPA/snap), against an underrated Saints’ secondary — one I believe we’ll be looking back on as one of the league’s most improved units. Normally I’d be calling for natural regression in play volume after running 73 snaps, but the way these games line up … maybe not so much.

Run Game

Undisputed 1.01 fantasy pick Jahmyr Gibbs racked up 34 total touches for an incredible 91.9% backfield share, standing in line for an encore +30-point fantasy performance. Buffalo struggled to stop the run against a far less creative or talented Texans team — repeating the combination of a -0.07 EPA/rush, 44.3% tackle success, and 51.6% defensive rush success rates will come back to kill you against the very best squads.

Pass Game

DET pass catchers provided mixed results, but the utilization’s beyond encouraging up and down the WR depth chart. Detroit ran 11-personnel at a 62% clip with very little rotation — all three starting wideouts ran at least 32 routes. That includes second-year Isaac TeSlaa, who, despite only commanding one unearned target, makes for an interesting contingency bench stash. 

Ups and downs in production were always par for the course for Jameson Williams, but I’m remaining bullish going forward after a nine-target outing and the NFL’s sixth-most air yards (128) — he also dropped one deep ball and caught another pass just a hair short of the goal line, which would’ve saved his fantasy day. Buy low, if anything.

Buffalo mostly mixed coverages but also conspicuously ran a two-high safety shell at the fourth-highest rate in Week 1, resulting in 98 receiving yards allowed to the slot. Curious to see if they switch it up to combat a Lion’s team that will be more than happy to oblige an underneath strategy featuring Gibbs between the tackles and Amon-Ra St. Brown right behind the linebackers. 

• Start: Jahmyr Gibbs (RB1), Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR3), Jameson Williams (WR24), Sam LaPorta (TE5), Jared Goff (QB14)
• Sit: On a barstool and enjoy the show
• Sleeper: Isaac TeSlaa (WR80)

Buffalo Bills Fantasy Preview

Josh Allen comes out of the fantasy box like a man on fire, immediately making the case against waiting on your fantasy QB1 when he can do things like this — a pair of scores through the air plus another two on the ground still fails to tell the tale of a dominant 35.7 fantasy point performance. 

Not only did Allen finish top-5 in EPA/attempt (which removes scrambles, as opposed to EPA/dropback), he posted the fourth-best off-target rate (3.4%) despite the league’s highest air yards/attempt. Now that’s a true dual threat. Wowzah.

Run Game

Of course, anytime a premium pick like James Cook scores in the double digits, there’s a level of disappointment. Understood. However, with an elite 89% of backfield share, 56% route participation, 22.2% target/route, and 100% of goal-to-go snaps — sunnier fantasy days lie on the horizon.

Pass Game

Bills pass catchers fit into nice fantasy bins on fairly consolidated usage.  DJ Moore led the way on a stellar box score (5-100-1) and even stronger underpinning stats (30.8% target/route, 3.85 yards/route, 153 air yards) — WR1 season loading for Moore …

Beyond that, Khalil Shakir makes an intriguing stream in strong matchups (like Thursday), but the biggest year-over-year gainer has to be Dalton Kincaid. Finally healthy, he earned six targets on a 76.9% snap rate — recreate this volume all season, and he could finish top-5 at the position.

Detroit’s defense truly played to a tale of two halves against New Orleans. Will the real Lions defense please stand up? Over the quarters of play, the Lions allowed a measly 3.3 yards/play on an impressive 67.6% success rate, which plummeted to 6.8% and 47.6% respectively after halftime. My gut says this hobbled secondary won’t be able to hold the fort for four full quarters.

• Start: James Cook (RB7), Josh Allen (QB1), DJ Moore (WR17), Dalton Kincaid (TE4)
• Sit: Josh Palmer (WR106)
• Sleeper: Khalil Shakir (WR48)

Next Week’s Bold Headlines, Today:

• How are we supposed to go to bed after all that excitement? Bills and Lions meet lofty expectations in a +60-point total on short rest, but it begs the question — How far can they go with defenses this bad?
• DJ Moore torches Detroit’s lack of experienced starting safeties, and those preseason calls of “dustball” look silly already. Buy-high signal triggered.