5 DFS Strategies for Underdog And DraftKings In Week 3: Jordan Mason Plays And Backup QB Stacks
Fantasy

5 DFS Strategies for Underdog And DraftKings In Week 3: Jordan Mason Plays And Backup QB Stacks

Peter Overzet shares five Week 3 DFS strategies for Underdog and DraftKings, focusing on the Jordan Mason dilemma, backup QBs and more.

The lobbies on both Underdog and DraftKings are packed full of big contests for Week 3, so let's dig into my favorite DFS plays, fades and stacks for the slate.

Here's the agenda for today:

  • How backup QBs have flipped the slate on its head
  • The Jordan Mason conundrum
  • Another vomit stack featuring a $4K QB
  • Why you should be clicking Jayden Daniels on Underdog
  • An explanation of the TE dead zone
For more DFS goodness, be sure to check out the Week 3 DFS jam on the Fantasy Life Youtube channel where I'll answer questions, draft teams and discuss strategy for the week. 

Underdog and DraftKings Week 3 DFS Strategy

Macro: Backup QB Decisions

After only two weeks of action, injuries have hit the QB position hard. With three QBs already ruled out—Joe Burrow, J.J. McCarthy, Justin Fields—and one legitimately questionable (Jayden Daniels), we have a lot of new variables to sift through when considering the Week 3 DFS slate.

Is Carson Wentz ($4,000) our generation's Mac Jones, who scored 21.76 points last week while also priced at the stone minimum? He can't be any worse than McCarthy.

Can Jake Browning ($5,500) play well enough on the road to justify playing Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins or Chase Brown? As Freedman noted here, he averaged 266.9 passing yards per game (and some rushing production) over his seven starts in 2023. We can work with that.

Could Tyrod Taylor ($4,800) actually help Breece Hall ($6,000) bounce back with some additional checkdown volume? The Bucs are banged up and giving up the 6th biggest boost to opposing QBs (+3.5) so far this season. He's probably not a huge downgrade on Fields.

And finally, if Daniels can't go, is Marcus Mariota ($4,000) actually the best QB punt play of the slate?? Considering his rushing upside relative to Wentz, I'd say so. 

If we zoom out, it looks the oddsmakers don't seem to have much faith in the game environments featuring these backup QBs:

  • Bengals at Vikings (41.5 total)
  • Raiders at Commanders (44 total)
  • Jets at Bucs (43.5 total)
But that has less to do with these backup QBs and more to do with the overall slate. There are basically no exciting game environments this week. Outside of Cowboys/Bears, which has a juicy 50.5 total, there's not a single other game with a total over 45.5 (eww).

That means we should be willing to embrace some of these backup QB situations where we are getting both salary and ownership discounts due to the uncertainty. 

Fake Free Square? The Jordan Mason Dilemma

Speaking of backups who are mispriced, it is going to be tough to get away from playing Jordan Mason this week.

With Aaron Jones (hamstring) out, Mason's price on DraftKings ($5,400) is far too cheap for his impending bell cow role. The only RB behind him on the roster is someone named Zavier Scott. I've devoted my entire life to fantasy football and I had never heard his name until … just now.

On Underdog, Mason is already the RB7 with an ADP of 18.6 as drafters quickly recognized the volume up for grabs in the Vikings backfield.

But let me play devil's advocate here…

  • Mason is going to end up being wildly popular on DraftKings—I'd be shocked if he wasn't over 40-50% owned in most contests (and he's already priced high on Underdog).
  • The Vikings offensive line is in rough shape. They could be without LT Christian Darrisaw (knee), C Ryan Kelly (concussion) and swing OT Justin Skule.
  • The Bengals have been middle-of-the-road against RBs through two games, but don't look like a particularly soft matchup.
  • Mason doesn't catch a ton of passes, which makes him more TD-dependent. 
I'm not going to go as far to say Mason is a "bad" play, but I think it's always worth considering a fade on the most popular player on the slate in a really fragile environment—especially if there is an even more intriguing way to play that game.

The DK Vomit Stack Of The Week: The Vikings

Last week Jones was $4K and CMC was $7,500, and now we have a very similar set-up with $4K Wentz and a $7,500 Justin Jefferson.

And based on how McCarthy was playing, I don't think it's crazy to say Wentz could be a legitimate upgrade over the floundering sophomore. Kevin O'Connell has proven to be a QB whisperer over the years, coaxing solid fantasy performances out of guys like Sam Darnold, Nick Mullens, and Joshua Dobbs. 

Jefferson has only 7 catches through the first two games, but Wentz is going to understand the assignment here and get him the ball.

TE T.J. Hockenson has also been a fantasy bust through two weeks with only 4 total targets, but he should also be a beneficiary of Wentz at the helm.

This is the final game without Jordan Addison in the fold and they are still the top 2 target earners on the team:

 

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I don't think it would be bad to include Mason in a Vikings onslaught—especially in smaller field contests where getting less things right is rewarded—but fading Mason in favor of a cheaply priced double-stack could provide significant leverage in large-field tournaments…

  • Wentz—$4,000
  • Jefferson—$7,500
  • Hockenson—$3,800

Underdog Tip: Embrace The Q-Tags

There are always plenty of sleepers to discuss on Underdog. It's how the game functions with only 36 players being drafted in each contest and a weekly player pool with way more than 36 viable fantasy plays.

But one dynamic that new Underdog drafters are often unwilling to embrace is the "Q-Tag" game. If you are unfamiliar with that game, here's a quick explainer…

  • When a player has a Q-tag—like Daniels (ADP 32) or Ladd McConkey (ADP: 29.1) this week—drafters are often scared to select them and so their ADP drops relative to their true upside.
  • Sharp drafters take advantage of these discounts because they either 1) get a mispriced stud on their squad or 2) are able to swap to the next best available player in their ranks in the event they are ruled out.
Think about it like this…if you select Daniels with your last-round pick–something that isn't uncommon right now–and he plays, you are getting an elite QB at an absurd price and essentially building a Week 3 superteam.

And if he doesn't play? Well guess what … you'll be able to swap to undrafted QBs like Daniel Jones (currently the QB2 on the year), Michael Penix (vs. one of the worst defenses in football), Drake Maye (scored 26.3 fantasy points last week), Bo Nix (a perfect naked QB swap), etc. I could go on and on.

The point is that the upside (Daniels playing and delivering a Top 3 QB performance) far outweighs the downside (having to swap to another QB who doesn't project that much differently than the other QB you would take over Daniels).

The Underdog TE Dead Zone

There is a clear Top 3 at the TE position this week: Trey McBride, Brock Bowers and Tucker Kraft (welcome to the elite TE cohort, btw!).

After that, it is wide open with a ton of guys who all project for a similar amount of points (7-9 FPG).

This dynamic creates a "dead zone" on Underdog where we generally want to avoid the TE 4-6 because 1) they will be selected in most drafts and 2) don't project differently from the TE 7-12.

For this week, that means I'll be light on these guys:

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And either paying up for the Big 3 or scrolling down to this cohort:

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Don't get anchored to ADP, especially at the TE position. 

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Jordan Mason
    JordanMason
    RBMINMIN
    PPG
    7.37
  2. Jayden Daniels
    JaydenDanielsQ
    QBWASWAS
    PPG
    16.18
  3. Carson Wentz
    CarsonWentz
    QBMINMIN
    PPG
    13.47
  4. Justin Jefferson
    JustinJefferson
    WRMINMIN
    PPG
    9.38