10 Things to Know For Week 3: Return of the Sheesh Report, Can Hot Players Stay Hot? and More

Week 3 is upon us. Reminder: Friends and family come and go, but fantasy football championship banners hang forever.

This brings us to today's goal:

10 mostly fantasy-relevant things to know ahead of Week 3

...that ideally will help make you both a better fantasy manager and overall person.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

1. Do early-season fantasy results really correlate that strongly to end-of-season results?

Basically: Do we as a society have to admit we were dumb idiots to not draft more late-round Javonte Williams, Travis Etienne and Wan'Dale Robinson, or is there a chance that hot initial 120 minutes of football generally fizzles out? It's easy to cope and simply point to the 2024 Saints to render any early-season results as null and void, but was that the norm or the exception?

The correlations between top-12 QB/TE and top-24 RB/WR's rank in total PPR points through the first two weeks of the season with those players' eventual per-game finishes are as follows (data is from the last five years):

QB: +0.404
RB: +0.309 (weakest)
WR: +0.454 (strongest)
TE: +0.408

Now, a positive 0.3 correlation is generally considered pretty weak, while something closer to 0.5 is still only a moderate positive correlation. RBs have been a bit more volatile, which I think adds up when considering the typical grind and heightened potential to miss games that the position experiences.

Still: Those numbers aren't too shabby! Let's do our best Stanley Yelnats impression and dig just a bit deeper and see what percentage of these particular high-end players actually wound up maintaining their high-end results.

Top 12 players by position in Weeks 1-2 to finish Top 12 on a per-game basis:

QB: 58% of top-12 QBs in Weeks 1-2 went on to finish inside the position's top 12
RB: 47%
WR: 50%
TE: 57%

Again, early-season results have hardly been the end-all-be-all for all positions, but we have seen a bit more clarity at the onesie spots, and RB continues to stand out as the most fickle.

Okay, enough nerding around: Now let's get into the good stuff.

2. What are the lamest offenses in the NFL at the moment?

By lame I mean:

Low dropback rates over expected: Running the ball is fine and all, but let's face it: Throwing the football is cooler.
Not creating explosive plays: Looking at you, Eagles.
Low average target depth: Chicks dig the long ball, not safe first down completions for four yards.

I took the average ranks from all 32 teams in these three factors to put together this super important metric. Without further ado:

The five lamest offenses through two weeks of the 2025 NFL season…

5. San Francisco 49ers

DBOE: +2.3% (16th)
Explosive rate: 6.4% (29th)
Average target depth: 7.2 yards (24th)

We'll cut Kyle Shanahan and company some slack here considering Christian McCaffrey's dark magic injury prevention witchcraft has caused most of the offense's key parties to deal with one issue or another to start the season.

4. Cleveland Browns

DBOE: +2.9% (15th)
Explosive rate: 7.7% (26th)
Average target depth: 6.1 yards (30th)

This is disappointing because Joe Flacco had the league's fifth-highest average target depth in 2024 (9.2) and ranked third in 2023 (9.5). The Browns don't exactly have an elite field-stretching talent to warrant Mr. Elite bringing out the deep ball too often, but yeah, the NFL's 30th-ranked offense in EPA per play has also been pretty lame with the way they've gone about their business so far.

3. New Orleans Saints

DBOE: -1.2% (24th)
Explosive rate: 6.6% (28th)
Average target depth: 7.4 yards (23rd)

This run-heavy approach without a reliance on the deep ball is a recipe for Spencer Rattler to not lose games out there, but that doesn't mean we have to overly enjoy it! That said: Respect to Rattler for at least keeping the Saints in one-score losses in each of his last three starts.

2. Atlanta Falcons

DBOE: -5.1% (28th)
Explosive rate: 9% (24th)
Average target depth: 5.9 yards (26th)

I was very surprised to see Atlanta here given Michael Penix's gunslinger reputation, but a conservative Week 2 approach (21 total pass attempts) and general reluctance to go deep early on (one of seven QBs with a sub-seven yard aDOT) drags them down. It'd make sense if a more capable opposing offense and healthier WRs leads to more fun and familiar shootout game-scripts down the road.

1. Philadelphia Eagles

DBOE: -6.3% (30th)
Explosive rate: 5.8% (30th)
Average target depth: 5.9 yards (31st)

The Eagles were world champions last year and 2-0 this year. Good for them, and nobody can deny that this is a damn good, tough football team. But does that make their offense any less lame? Sure, Saquon Barkley is always good for some fun runs, but otherwise…

A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have *two* combined receptions over 10 yards this season. 34-year-old Zach Ertz has three!
Only 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers has a lower average target depth than Jalen Hurts. This is one of the more sad passing charts I've seen from someone who is supposed to be a superstar QB.
Kudos to the Eagles for mastering the tush push. Opposing defenses should learn how to stop it if they have a problem with it. That said: It sure seems like the Eagles are getting away with some early movement at this point, and this rugby-esque play accounted for 12% (7/58) of their total plays in Week 2.

Again, Go Birds, Nick Sirianni and company are winning football games, who the hell cares about my silly made-up metric. But also, I think we can all agree it'd be a lot cooler if an offense featuring some of the game's most-electric playmakers was just a bit more fun.

The inverse of this doesn't work out as neatly as I hoped, as the Chargers, Raiders, Giants, Packers and Cowboys are allegedly the most non-lame (cool?) offenses in the league at the moment. We'll continue to get in the lab, but yeah, moral of the story here: PLEASE become fun to watch again, Eagles.

3. How many true workhorse RBs exist in the year 2025?

Let me drop this right here and then refer you to a FULL COLUMN on the state of the running back, separating the workhorses, bell-cows... there's even a section devoted just to Ashton Jeanty.

4. The quarterback shuffle

Only one backup QB was forced to start in Week 2 – shoutout to Mac Jones for throwing three TDs in a win with Brock Purdy (toe/shoulder) sidelined.

In Week 3, there might be four added to the equation depending on how practice and recovery goes:

Bengals QB Joe Burrow (toe) OUT → Jake Browning IN: This one will be for the long haul with Burrow's foot surgery expected to sideline him for three months. Pain. Enter: Browning, who managed to lead a spirited comeback win over the Jaguars after being thrust into action on Sunday. There were plenty of bad (3 rough INTs), but the 29-year-old career backup has the sort of irrational gunslinger confidence that can still lead to some solid fantasy showings even in the absence of great real-life ability–particularly in an offense loaded with weapons like this one. Reminder: Browning averaged a healthy eight yards per attempt and 267 passing yards per start (!) in seven spot starts back in 2023. He also has four career rushing TDs. I'm cautiously optimistic this offense will go from "usually awesome" to "usually good" with Browning under center, but I wouldn't expect fireworks this Sunday against Brian Flores and the Vikings' second-ranked defense in EPA allowed per dropback.

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (knee) OUT → Marcus Mariota IN: Probably. It's not official, but Daniels is considered day to day with a sprained knee and Rapsheet said his status is "in doubt." It'd be tough to not ride with Daniels if active, although a decrease in rushing production would be expected. Mariota will get the call otherwise, and to his credit the former second overall pick performed admirably last season on his way to posting 362-4-0 passing and 16-90-1 rushing lines in extended outings against the Panthers and Cowboys. Don't expect things to be easy against Maxx Crosby and the Raiders–and I'd also like to see more from Kliff Kingsbury after back-to-back uninspiring efforts to start the season–but I won't be plummeting the key involved parties too far down the ranks if JD is ultimately sidelined.

Vikings QB JJ McCarthy (ankle) OUT → Carson Wentz IN: McCarthy is expected to miss 2-4 weeks while tending to a high-ankle sprain. Enter: Wentz, who hasn't started a non-Week 18 matchup since 2023 with the Commanders when he (again) failed to recapture that early-career magic. Maybe Kevin O'Connell knows just what to whisper to his new 32-year-old QB, although this passing game has *one* weapon for defenses to overly worry about, and the banged-up offensive line has allowed plenty of pressure–albeit it's taken a long time to get there. This Bengals defense isn't anything to fear, but ultimately Justin Jefferson and Jordan Mason are the only guys I want anywhere near a starting lineup.

Jets QB Justin Fields (concussion) OUT → Tyrod Taylor IN: The artist known as TyGod has led four TD drives in five (garbage time) opportunities during the past two seasons. I wouldn't expect quite that level of success in Sunday's matchup against the Bucs, but the 36-year-old veteran shouldn't exactly be viewed as a downgrade for any associated pass-catchers (read: Garrett Wilson). That said: The Jets are still implied to score just 18.75 points in Week 3 (4th lowest)–nobody other than Wilson and Breece Hall are recommended starts.

5. Are there any pronounced funnel defenses through two weeks?

A funnel defense is a group that is so good against the run or pass that they tend to "funnel" their opponent's production to whatever play type they aren't quite as dominant. Think about a team with a super stout front-seven that is hellbent on stopping the run–it makes sense that defense would naturally allow plenty of production through the air.

Anyways, the below chart denotes every defense's EPA allowed per dropback and per rush through two weeks of action.

Like every football stat we could possibly analyze two weeks into the season: Take this with a bit of a grain of salt because it's been *two weeks*, but with that said…

Pass funnel groups: The Buccaneers, Patriots and Raiders have all been top-five defenses against the run, but rank among the league's bottom-10 units against the pass. Good news for Garrett Wilson, DK Metcalf (especially if Christian Gonzalez remains sidelined), and Terry McLaurin!

Run funnel groups: The Vikings, Titans and Colts have put forward top-11 efforts when defending the pass, but are each bottom-eight units when defending the run. Good news for Chase Brown, Jonathan Taylor, and Tony Pollard!

6. Survivor: Who do we want to save the NFL's top squads for?

Survivor pools are a fun time. I'm doing *one* this season and wish I would have thought of this idea before Week 1, but hey, shoutout to the Broncos and Rams for pulling through.

Anyway: We help ourselves out by figuring out the best times to feature the Ravens and Bills of the world instead of "wasting" them before we need to. Again, we're in this for the long haul, so ideally we'd like to keep a few aces (Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen) up our sleeve.

The below chart denotes eight teams that I believe are elite, five more that are likely pretty damn good, and who I believe their safest spot is. I generally used home field as a tiebreaker.

Screenshot 2025-09-17 at 3.58.35 PM.webp

Reminder: Football is a sport that consists of 11-on-11 car crashes for 60 minutes and uses a ball that isn't even round. Half of these will probably wind up being losses now that I took the time to try to guess what could look like a good spot months into the future largely based on what we've seen in 120 minutes of action. But hey, hopefully it helps you get across the finish line!

We'll revisit this in a few weeks to update things, but in the meantime I'm personally leaning toward picking the Buccaneers as 7-point home favorites against the lowly J-e-t-s Jets Jets Jets. What could go wrong?

7. Sheesh Report: What players were oh so close to putting up big numbers last week?

I wrote a weekly "Sheesh Report" column for years that tried to quantify the sort of near-miss, beyond-the-box-score opportunities that are really capable of tilting fantasy managers of all shapes and sizes. Let's break down some of the more sheeshy moments right here, baby!

Players tackled at the one-yard line and did NOT score a TD on the same drive

This has sadly become a regular occurrence for Eagles RBs over the years:

Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (they literally gave Daniel Jones *three* QB sneak attempts after this)
Eagles RB Saquon Barkley
Rams RB Kyren Williams (literally on the last drive and then the Rams kneeled it out)
Bengals RB Chase Brown
Chargers RB Omarion Hampton (also stopped at the two-yard line twice more on the same drive)
Texans RB Nick Chubb
Texans WR Nico Collins (and then got two incomplete end zone targets on the same drive)
Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (could have had four TDs!)
Ravens WR DeAndre Hopkins
Bengals TE Mike Gesicki

Unrealized air yards leaderboard

"Unrealized air yards" measures the total amount of air yards on incomplete targets. This helps identify players who had all sorts of fantasy-friendly downfield opportunities, but they simply couldn't come up with completions for one reason or another.

Anyway, 11 players had more than 80 unrealized air yards in Week 2:

Jaguars WR Brian Thomas (118)
Giants WR Malik Nabers (117)
Buccaneers WR Mike Evans (114)
Chiefs WR Tyquan Thornton (114)
Bears WR Rome Odunze (111)
Raiders WR Dont'e Thornton (101)
Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka (90)
Colts WR AD Mitchell (87)
Ravens WR Zay Flowers (83)
Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers (81)
Packers WR Matthew Golden (81)

Giants LT James Hudson had an interesting Week 2

The final sheesh-worthy moment from Week 2 is concerning Giants LT James Hudson, who racked up not one, not two, not three, but FOUR penalties … on the first drive of the game! He also gave up a sack and seemed to get in some sideline altercations with his teammates upon being benched. Hudson had a pretty good game otherwise at least.

8. Subjectively ranking every game from an entertainment perspective

Bad football will always be better than no football. That said: We obviously are more excited for certain games over others, so every week I'll take a few minutes to rank the upcoming matchups due to subjective, at times stupid and silly reasons.

Ravens-Lions: Two of the best teams to not make a Super Bowl in the last few years will face off on Monday night. Both the Lions and Ravens have a way of even making blowouts fun, while they're also consistent instant-classic contenders capable of getting into back-and-forth shootouts. This is easily the No. 1 game of the week. Cool? Cool.
Cowboys-Bears: The Cowboys' combination of elite offense and horrific defense make them appointment television. Dak Prescott is going to throw life-threatening seam balls to his TE, CeeDee Lamb is going to make cool shit happen, and if you missed the game and someone told you that George Pickens stone-cold stunner'd a Bears defender … you would at least hesitate before calling bullshit. So we got that going on AND a defense that looks capable of allowing 30-plus points to pretty much anyone. That, my friends, is a recipe for a fun game–THIS needs to be the week that Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams show some legit good stuff.
Bills-Dolphins: I just feel like Tyreek Hill is ready to blow. We almost saw it in the 4th quarter when Tua missed him for what should have been a chunk gain – you're telling me a short week and road trip against a Bills team that has ripped off six straight wins in this series is what this 0-2 Dolphins squad at a crossroads needs? So yeah, inner-team blowup potential, and Josh Allen, all on Thursday night football. Make sure you check out the Prime Vision stream with cool Next Gen Stats and updates from the man, the myth, the legend Sam Schwartzstein.
Eagles-Rams: Out of respect to Matthew Stafford's trick shot passing more than anything. Is it okay to simultaneously think the Eagles and the Tush Push are pretty freaking boring to watch on offense (especially this season–they have two receptions that have gained more than 10 yards!) while also believing they are firmly still in the running for the best team in the league? They're great, but it's not a great watch for non-Birds fans! Sorry not sorry!
Chargers-Broncos: Love or hate the guy: It's hard to deny the Jim Harbaugh circus is a fun time. The pregame thing with Herbert, wearing gloves in pregame warmups, the press conference moments: The NFL is more fun with him in it. Last year he managed to put together two seven-point wins over the Broncos and Sean Payton, giving him a 4-1 lifetime advantage over the Saints/Broncos head coach.
Browns-Packers: This might seem high, but it's also a sad reality that this looks like a relatively mid slate on paper. I'm putting it nice because a "bad" Sunday of football is still an awesome f*cking Sunday. Anyway, the Packers look like the NFL's best team, and the Myles Garrett-led Browns front-seven is plenty capable of wreaking some havoc. Throw in some Joe Flacco shenanigans, and I'm excited.
Giants-Chiefs: Watching Patrick Mahomes attempt to scramble his way to victories before Travis Kelce throws it all away isn't quite as fun as past editions of this Chiefs offense, but ultimately this one-score-game machine continues to start the songbird of our generation under center and thus demand primetime viewing spots. So yeah, that, and Malik Nabers, mostly. Sunday night football! Yeah!
Panthers-Falcons: This is for sure too high … but it won't be if it was anything like last season's Week 18 fever dream of a 44-38 overtime shootout that featured 962 total yards of offense! Perhaps it's wishful thinking to think that either offense has that in them based on early-season results, but hey, Michael Penix believes he can squeeze the football into any window, the Falcons have some fun playmakers, and I'm hopeful last week's spirited, yet ultimately ill-fated comeback effort from the Panthers is a sign that they're ready to get back to 2024 second-half heights of being a fun-bad football team.
Titans-Colts: The Colts boast an NFL-best +26 point differential through two weeks. Tyler Warren looks like the next great TE. Daniel Jones is suddenly playing the best ball of his career and allegedly dating Sydney Sweeney. How can you not be interested in this team at the moment? And then there's Cam Ward, who has provided multiple wow moments despite leading an offense with one less TD than backup Rams TE Davis Allen this season.
Jaguars-Texans: The Texans combine at times offensive malpractice with maybe the single-most physical defense in the league. I swear the Houston D has a higher rate of crowd-wide "OHH!" moments post-hit than any group in the league. So yeah, that's going on, and then there's the Trevor Lawrence-led Jaguars who can't seem to get their pair of stud first-round WRs the football. I'd like to believe there's a scenario where these two participate in a hard-nosed battle that still features plenty of good offense, but I'm not hopeful.
Patriots-Steelers: Watching Drake Maye is always pretty fun for better or worse. Normally I'd guess that we'd have to hope for an entertaining blooper reel against TJ Watt and company, but this year's steel curtain has actually made the Jets and Seahawks offenses look rather lethal. Meanwhile, the bulk of the entertainment factor from the Steelers comes down to them always having a long-heralded shit-talking instigator on the field between DK Metcalf and Jalen Ramsey.
Seahawks-Saints: Both Sam Darnold and Spencer Rattler have played well enough this year to earn a higher spot than matchups featuring backups. We got Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker on one sideline and Alvin Kamara with some sneaky great receivers on the other! Throw in a Klint Kubiak revenge game storyline, and I strongly believe this will not be the worst game in the late-afternoon quad box.
Vikings-Bengals: This Justin Jefferson-Ja'Marr Chase reunion could have been as high as No. 2 if not for, you know, both starting QBs getting hurt. Will God turn off injuries already? Anyway, these former LSU national champion teammates have faced off twice, with Chase (9-165-2) holding the superior combined receiving line over Jettas (12-155-0). Side note: I'm also intrigued to see if Carson Wentz can overcome this banged-up o-line and actually play good-to-great for a week or two purely for the piles of hilarious slander that would fall upon my friend Thor Nystrom.
49ers-Cardinals: This would have vied for last place if Mac Jones hadn't proven to be plenty adept at moving this offense along last week. So yeah, points there, but man: The occasional ridiculous Kyler Murray highlight run doesn't always make up for at times maddeningly inefficient passing displays that largely ignore his No. 1 WR. Or maybe I'm just a biased Columbus, Ohio native and Marvin Harrison Jr. believer. That could have something to do with it, too.
Buccaneers-Jets: Troy Aikman described Baker Mayfield as a QB with an offensive lineman's mentality on last week's Monday Night Football broadcast and I couldn't agree more. I feel pretty confident in Tampa Bay's ability to still provide relatively game-long good vibes even in the absence of an acceptable offensive effort from Gang Green.
Commanders-Raiders: This would be quite a few spots higher if we were projecting Jayden Daniels to suit up. Alas, Marcus Mariota largely kept the ship afloat last year, and I do trust Geno Smith to keep his bevy of playmakers productive more weeks than not. Especially intriguing storyline: Watching Ashton Jeanty run through mofos.

9. The DST corner

The 49ers' DST11 finish in Week 2 wasn't exactly the boom we were hoping for against the Spencer Rattler-led Saints, but I'm holding strong with the process especially with Nick Bosa and company carrying the league's fourth-best mark in EPA allowed per play through two weeks. Kudos to Kyler Murray for making some plays against this 49ers defense last season, but he's not the most reliable QB in the world when it comes to avoiding negative plays: Murray has five games with four-plus sacks dating back to Week 1 of last season (tied for the 8th most), and has also tossed multiple INTs in 3 games along the way (tied for 12th most).

I'm also cool with continuing to ride with our other cheap recommended DST in the Patriots: They still get the Steelers, Panthers, Bills (uh oh), Saints, Titans and Browns through the end of October.

If not…

Falcons (1.3% owned on ESPN) vs. Panthers: The NFL's No. 1 defense in EPA allowed per play and havoc benefited from the JJ McCarthy experience, but their performance against the Bucs was largely solid in Week 1, as well. You know what hasn't been solid this season? Bryce Young and the Panthers, who have surrendered back-to-back DST3 finishes to the Jaguars and Cardinals.
Jaguars (2%) vs. Texans: Back-to-back top-seven performances have been fueled by this Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker-led pass rush and an opportunistic secondary that has picked off a league-high five passes through two weeks. Up next is the Texans' sad excuse for an offensive line; CJ Stroud has already been sacked six times in two weeks.
Colts (36.5%) vs. Titans: Fared far better in Week 1 than Week 2, but the pass defense has at least posted the ninth best mark in EPA allowed per dropback. This is the league's worst unit at generating pressure, but they have a pretty great opportunity to change that against Cam Ward, who has taken a league-high 11 sacks through two weeks.

10. Three Bold Calls for Week 3

And I'm talking BOLD. No predicting Derrick Henry to have a big game, or Nico Collins to have 100 yards: We're dumpster diving here in the pursuit of glory, but I swear there's legit reasoning to the madness–specifically my weekly mismatch charts.

1. DK Metcalf booms, torches New England for 150 yards and 2 TDs. The Steelers boast some of the week's best combined marks in explosive pass play rate and yards per dropback. Metcalf has had a slow start, but he displayed some solid YAC ability in Week 2, and made two grown-ass-man contested catches (one for six points) in a revenge game against the Seahawks last week. *If* No. 1 Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez is again sidelined, I like Metcalf's chances of going the f*ck off in this one.

2. D'Andre Swift silences his many haters with 100-plus yards and 2 TD. Swift and the Bears boast a solid advantage on the line of scrimmage ahead of their potential shootout against the Cowboys. It sure seems like Swift's mediocre 4 yards per carry is being held against him more than sub-4 YPC backs like Saquon Barkley (3.7), Josh Jacobs (3.6), Christian McCaffrey (3.5), and Bucky Irving (3.5) among others. I like Swift to (again) flirt with 20-plus touches inside a matchup that sure looks like it could turn into a shootout.

3. Rams pour gasoline on concerns surrounding the Eagles, win 35-10 in Philly. This looks like a mismatch in favor of the Rams in terms of combined EPA per play. Matthew Stafford and company have the NFL's best combination of explosive play rate and success rate through two weeks and look capable of scoring on anyone, something that cannot be said for Jalen Hurts and the Eagles–especially against Jared Verse and the league's second-ranked defense in EPA allowed per play through two weeks. Maybe Saquon Barkley decides to rip off more 50-plus yard monster TDs, but I struggle to see Philly keeping up otherwise.

Last week: George Pickens didn't quite go for triple-digits, but his 5-68-1 receiving line didn't leave his fantasy managers too sad (if only we got fantasy points for DPI yards). Jordan Mason didn't come through with a big night and Jakobi Meyers (6-68-0) wasn't great. But hey, how about that process!

Thank you all for reading and best of luck in Week 3 and beyond!