Dynasty Fantasy Football Strategy Mailbag: Christian McCaffrey Trade Value, C.J. Stroud & More

We’re back with another round of dynasty fantasy football strategy-related questions from the members of our Fantasy Life Community Discord. If YOU have a dynasty question, just drop into that channel here.

This week, we explore CMC’s dynasty value, when to cut fringe players from your roster, how to handle life as the reigning dynasty champion and MUCH MORE!

Let’s jump right in …

In Superflex dynasty leagues, is C.J. Stroud a buy, sell or hold candidate?

Full disclosure: I’m answering this while staring at a Stroud-shaped question mark on one of my own Superflex rosters.

This offseason, I’ve tried trading him away for a future first-round pick. I’ve tried putting him into a package to get a stud receiver. And I’ve tried pairing him with a high-value asset to tier up to a fringe top-10 dynasty QB. None of it worked. So at this point, I’m holding where I have him and attempting to buy low in other leagues.

Stroud has the tools to be a solid fantasy asset, but he’s been through the wringer in terms of offensive scheme changes these past four years. He’s entering his second season in Nick Caley’s offense with a reworked o-line and (hopefully) better WR health, which makes him a guy worth waiting around on. I’m not saying he’ll have a Trevor Lawrence-esque resurgence … but I’m not ruling it out, either.

What’s your methodology for choosing who to cut from dynasty rosters?

How long do you hold a vet like Deebo/Aiyuk or a Phil Mafah/Ben Sinnott type?

Every player situation is unique, but I generally ask myself a few basic questions:

What is that player’s best possible outcome?
How likely is that to actually happen?
Am I missing out on something better by keeping them on my roster?

Let’s put this into practice with Phil Mafah. Without an injury to Javonte Williams, his best possible outcome is securing the RB2 role in Dallas. Last year, that amounted to about 21% of offensive snaps, and it’s unlikely to increase by much this year. That’s handcuff-only territory.

The odds of Mafah earning that RB2 role look a little worse than 33%, with the incumbent Malik Davis and last year’s fifth-round pick Jaydon Blue having a slight edge due to experience and draft capital, respectively. I don’t know who’s on your waiver wire, but I’m guessing there’s someone out there with more upside and standalone value.

I have no bones about dropping Mafah.

If you’ve recently won your dynasty league with some old guys on your roster, what’s next?

Should you take the W and start selling away your aging players? Or should you try to push it one more year and see how much juice these winners have left in the tank?

Squeeze. The. Juice.

You know what’s better than winning one dynasty championship? Winning two! And if you do it back-to-back, your leaguemates will be forced into an existential Groundhog Day situation where they begin to question their own free will. Think of all the long-term benefits your team would see from THAT!

Obviously, if you feel like last year’s championship was a fluke, or if the old guys on your roster project to be significantly less useful to you this year (see: Stefon Diggs), then you may want to recalibrate and focus on planting more seeds for the future. Otherwise? Keep making moves to bolster your juggernaut and run it back.

What are your honest feelings on Christian McCaffrey in dynasty?

I want to trade him because I’m scared sh*tless that he’s going to get injured again after the workload he just had. But also scared sh*tless that if I trade him, he’s going to do exactly what he did last season.

No player embodies the concept of high risk/high reward quite like Christian McCaffrey. Since 2019, if he’s played a full season, CMC has finished as the overall RB1 or very close to it. But in his last six seasons, you’ve only gotten a healthy CMC half of the time.

Before I tell you my stance, let’s look at some facts:

Last year, the 49ers were unexpectedly without Brandon Aiyuk for the entire season, Brock Purdy for half the season, Ricky Pearsall for half the season and George Kittle for six games.
McCaffrey reached career highs in carries (311) and total touches (413).
Going back to 2020, there have been six times where a running back 25 years or older notched 350+ touches. In all but one instance, that running back suffered a serious drop-off the following year.
CMC is now 30 years old.

I respect the fact that McCaffrey is built differently than your typical running back. But even if I’m a contender in dynasty, he’s not someone I want anchoring my team. I’d rather use his sustained dynasty value to tier up to a younger stud or tier down to an older back with worse value but similar odds at a big finish (Saquon Barkley).

What on earth do I do with RJ Harvey?

Maybe you could write Sean Payton a letter asking him to stop fragmenting his backfield? Otherwise, the best approach is probably to hold on and wait for a trade window.

Last year, prior to J.K. Dobbins’ annual injury, Harvey averaged five rush attempts and 2.5 receptions per game. He clocked in as the RB29 in PPG almost entirely due to a fortuitous three-TD game against Dallas in Week 8. For comparison, Harvey scored just three touchdowns total in the other nine games without Dobbins.

Yes, Harvey was a rock-solid fantasy asset after he took over the backfield in Week 11, but his role as the assumed handcuff has been complicated by the addition of rookie Jonah Coleman, who projects as more of a true three-down back. And that threat has suppressed Harvey’s dynasty value.

So the best-case scenario is that Harvey carves out a voluminous pass-catching role and stumbles into some flex-worthy weeks. And if/when Dobbins suffers another injury, your leaguemates assume Harvey becomes the workhorse again, giving you an opportunity to get out.

What are we doing with Michael Mayer in Dynasty Fantasy Football?

Seems like he’s a hold due to the contract year, but also they aren’t going to feature him, so will he even get a good deal anywhere next year?

I’d be careful assuming the Raiders won’t feature Mayer. Any team with tight end enthusiast Klint Kubiak at the controls should see plenty of 12 personnel. Factor in that Vegas currently has Jalen Nailor leading the WR room, and you’ve got a recipe for a Mayer bounceback.

I’d hold him just a little while longer in TE-Premium formats.