Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Regression Coming For Drake Maye?

With OTAs underway and the NFL hype machine working at full steam, we’re now entering Narrative City. And it’s our job as good little dynasty managers to make all this offseason fluff and white noise work in our favor.

With that in mind, here’s what the rad as hell members of our Fantasy Life Discord want to know …

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Dynasty Offseason Mailbag

Do you strongly believe Drake Maye had a true breakout season or was he a product of the easiest schedule in NFL history? The Patriots played a record-tying 11 games against teams that fired their HC. Is Maye a hard regression candidate or a top dynasty QB?

I had to double check that factoid about the Patriots playing so many teams that changed head coaches this offseason. Yowza! Shocking, but true.

The easy schedule probably helped Maye a bit, but he already showed signs of being a fantasy star in 2024. In 10 full starts that year, Maye averaged 220+ passing yards and 35+ rushing yards per game, a feat that put him in rarefied air with the likes of Cam Newton, Josh Allen and Michael Vick. And he did it while throwing to Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper and a gaggle of unproven wide receivers not named Stefon Diggs.

I was calling him one of my favorite trade targets back then, so maybe I have some built-in biases, but his combination of passing + rushing acumen + draft capital cements him a top dynasty guy. I don’t think a tougher schedule this season changes that.

Is it time to strike while the iron is hot on Rashee Rice?

Are we buying or selling the crazy Rice train? I have two shares and not sure if I should have more or less.

I knew Rice would be a popular topic this week, with the news of his jail time and knee cleanup still fresh in everyone’s minds. So I’ll answer this tag team of questions with this:

The iron is much too hot for my liking. I’m afraid the iron will eventually burn my face, whether it’s this offseason, later this year or sometime down the road. And I like my face.

Ultimately, everyone has to figure out their own comfort level with Rice. You could easily argue that Rice’s penalty of 30 days in jail is extreme considering the infraction (and I would agree with you), but this is just one more instance that shows poor decision-making on his part. Are there more bad decisions coming that could affect his ability to remain on the field? I personally don’t like dealing with all the headaches, especially for a player who’s only shown glimpses of fantasy goodness.

But I know at least one person who has a different perspective.

In my 24-team league, I was offered Breece Hall and George Pickens for Ashton Jeanty. My concern is giving up a (hopefully) true superstar for two “only” stars…

In such an outrageously deep league, I’d be comfortable with that return for Jeanty. I hear what you’re saying about holding onto “true superstars,” but I’d need to be 99.9% certain Jeanty fits that billing to say no to that offer. But I’m not so positive. He doesn’t have Bijan Robinson’s or Jahmyr Gibbs’ history of production. And I’m still skeptical about how much the Raiders offense improved over the offseason.

How do you decide which players to drop? I'll have to drop two players when other players come off IR eligibility unless I can make a trade.

 I don’t have an exact process, but after giving my all to make some trades (as you did) I usually ask myself two questions:

1) Which players are more likely to remain available on the waiver wire so I can possibly pick them up later?

2) Could I live with myself if the player hits his peak after I drop him?

It’s one thing for a player you dropped to give someone else a couple of flex-worthy weeks, but it’s quite another to see them become a stud on someone else’s team. I’m not mentally strong enough to watch that happen.

Is Ty Simpson worth a look for non-Stafford managers? I feel like just because he's (likely) the second QB off boards doesn't mean he's gonna be anything of value in four years.

I put Ty Simpson at the 2.02 in my three-round Superflex rookie mock a couple weeks ago, and that was even before Stafford signed an extension to stay with the Rams through 2027. I think Simpson is fine to pick up if you’ve got the bench space (and the patience), but I don’t see that much distance between him and Carson Beck in terms of dynasty value.

Thoughts on trading 2026 picks for 2027 picks, since so many people are way higher on the 2027 class than the current class?

It’s a nice idea assuming you can get a decent value in return. But I think too many people have this same idea, so the odds of getting that value are slim.

Because of that, I’ve debated doing the exact opposite. When everyone is super high on a specific draft class and way down on another, it might be a good idea to zag and scoop up as much value as you can. Besides, managers are more likely to move on from 2027 firsts during the season.

Give us a rookie player each at QB, RB, WR and TE that you have upgraded or downgraded on your Big Board due to rookie camp and OTA rumblings

I hate to be the runny egg in your shoe, but I don’t typically move anyone anywhere based on the mid-May rumor mill. Most of this stuff is white noise. I remember far too many people moving Ja'Marr Chase down their rankings because of some nonsense rumors this time of year.

The one guy I’ve moved down a bit is Ty Simpson, but that’s only because of Stafford’s extension

Are you trading or riding with King Henry until he’s deposed?

The “problem” with Derrick Henry in dynasty is the same one that plagued Tom Brady managers for years. He’s too old to net much in a trade and too good to trade away for peanuts. You’re just gonna have to hold and probably get one more 1,500-scrimmage-yard season out of him. Poor you

What would you do in the leagues you commish regarding the Brendan Sorsby situation?

First, I’m not the commissioner in any of my leagues, and I only feel a little bad about it. (It’s the best for everyone involved, I promise.)

For anyone who’s unaware, the Texas Tech QB was caught up in some gambling allegations and was recently denied his request to be reinstated by the NCAA. This could mean he’ll be entering the NFL via the Supplemental Draft. Coach Gene Clemons provides a much more detailed breakdown of the situation here.

But assuming your rookie draft already happened, there are a few ways to handle this:

You could manually block him from waivers until next year’s rookie draft.

You could have an all-out FAAB bidding war.

Or you could get really complex with it and go through this year’s draft order until someone agrees to take Sorsby, thus forfeiting the corresponding pick for next year. So if the managers with the 1.01 through 1.06 say no, but the person with 1.07 says yes, they get Sorsby and forfeit next year’s first-rounder.

It’s a tough situation and I’m so damn glad I’m not a commissioner in moments like these!

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