Week 3 DraftKings NFL DFS Picks: Nico Collins-C.J. Stroud, Chargers Contrarian Stacks and More
DFS

Week 3 DraftKings NFL DFS Picks: Nico Collins-C.J. Stroud, Chargers Contrarian Stacks and More

Geoff Ulrich delivers the Week 3 DraftKings NFL DFS Picks, featuring C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins, as well as Chargers contrarian stacks.

Geoff Ulrich

We’re on to Week 3 of the NFL season, and with TNF behind us, that means it's time to switch your focus to daily fantasy lineup building and taking a shot at some of those huge prize pools available every week in the DFS streets. 

Today’s goal? 

I’ll be breaking down my favorite plays and stacks here every week while also highlighting a few GPP-only and higher variance plays that I think offer great 5x blowup potential—at low ownership. 

These plays and salaries will be specific to DraftKings and their salary cap contests.

However, since we’re also relying on the FantasyLife+ projections, tools and advice, the specific game matchups and correlations (aka–game stacks) are things you can apply to lineup building across the DFS industry.

Hint: Use Code GRIND for 20% off a FantasyLife+ subscription today

If you'd like my favorite plays and GPP targets that are specific for FanDuel, you can also find that here. 

Let’s dive in. Week 3!!

NFL DFS Picks for DraftKings GPPs and the Fantasy Football Millionaire 

The slate this week should have a lot of concentration in a couple of obvious spots. Chicago and Dallas have the highest game total on the slate by far at 50.0 (up from 49.5 earlier in the week), while injury issues in Minnesota will make Jordan Mason (5400) a very popular value target. 

I’ll go over some contrarian stacks you can use to work around these spots and help keep your overall ownership levels down (while maintaining upside, of course), and also give you my quick take on how to construct a contrarian build for that potential shootout in Chicago. 

DraftKings Week 3 Stacks 

Here are a few combinations to consider:

  1. The Buy-Low Texans Duo 

 

People aren’t looking closely at this game after two disappointing efforts from Stroud-Collins, but the two have a solid history of providing blowup games and make for a great two-man pivot you can build around with chalkier plays. 

Collins hasn’t been great for fantasy purposes through two weeks, but he’s still the clear alpha in this offense. Via the Fantasy Life Utilization Report, he comes into Week 2 with elite usage numbers, including a 29% target share and 40% air yards share. 

Jacksonville was also awful at containing the Bengals' WR1 Ja'Marr Chase, allowing him to go for 14 catches on 16 targets in Week 2. Collins has been an equally tough matchup for the Jaguars in the past, averaging 124 receiving yards vs. them over their last three meetings, multiple of which came against current corner Tyson Campbell. 

Stroud has been equally as efficient vs. Jacksonville, averaging 292 yards against them over his last four starts. He also brings a little hidden rushing upside (29 rush yards per game through two weeks) and is a great leverage play off Caleb Williams stacks, who figures to be the highest-owned QB on the slate. 

Overall, just a great spot to take a shot with what has been, in the past, a GPP-winning QB-WR pairing. 

  1. The Chargers Slot Double Stack   

 

I’m always intrigued for DFS purposes when you have two elite defenses going up against two higher-end/elite QBs. The consensus view always seems to hyper-inflate the defense's ability to make stops and avoids the upside with the elite offensive players involved, which can lead to some great leverage opportunities.  

This week’s matchup between the Chargers and Broncos is no different. The Chargers' passing game, which leads the league in PROE—and has a QB in Herbert who is second in yards per pass attempt (9.2) and fifth in overall fantasy scoring at his position—should be relatively low-owned as a whole due to the matchup with Denver (3rd in EPA per play on defense). 

Allen at 4700 may draw some exposure, but even with his 10 career TDs in 15 games vs. the Broncos, I don’t expect him to be overly popular. Combining him with McConkey in a double-stack will give you exposure to both of the Chargers slot receivers, who are less likely to line up alongside reigning DPOY Pat Surtain, and potentially provide matchup issues all game long. 

It’s a high-risk, high-reward strategy targeting Denver and leaving TD-magnet Quentin Johnston out, but it makes sense given the matchup. 

  1. Dallas Contrarian Build 

Dak Prescott (5900)—George Pickens (5900) and Javonte Williams (6100) or KaVontae Turpin (3,900)

Quick Notes: 

  • As Matthew Freedman noted here, both Chicago corners are banged up, and Pickens has drawn 79 yards' worth of PI calls already.  

  • Williams has taken 100% of the SDD (short down and distance) and inside-the-5 carry attempts this far for Dallas, and would be a contrarian stack alongside Dak. 
  • Playing for a Moore bounceback vs the Dallas secondary makes sense, and using him as a non-CeeDee Lamb Dallas stack would be unique. 

🌑 Week 3 Moonshots: 

Dontayvion Wicks (3700) (Packers at Browns)

 

With Jayden Reed (collarbone) on IR, there is a great opportunity coming up for Dontayvion Wicks to establish himself as the primary target in this Packers offense (or co-primary with Tucker Kraft). He posted a 22% target share vs. the Commanders, which led all Green Bay WRs, and faces a Browns secondary that has allowed four touchdowns to opposing WRs this season already.

Jonnu Smith (3600) (Steelers at Patriots)

Smith should really excel in this spot. The Patriots allowed 141 yards to the Raiders' TEs in Week 1 and have become a clear funnel to the pass defense under Mike Vrabel (29th in EPA per play vs. the pass). He currently has a 17% target share and has had multiple blowup games in this Arthur Smith offense several times with past teams. At $3600, he’s my favorite target at TE on DraftKings this week.

TreVeyon Henderson (5400) (Patriots vs Steelers) 

Maybe I have a case of rookie fever, but chasing the TreVeyon Henderson breakout game another week seems logical. He’ll be very low-owned after his usage dipped in Week 2, mainly due to pass-protection issues, but faces a Steelers defense that is 28th in EPA against the run. He’s your high-variance pivot off the likely to be highest owned RB on the slate, Jordan Mason (5400).

 

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Nico Collins
    NicoCollins
    WRHOUHOU
    PPG
    12.02
  2. C.J. Stroud
    C.J.Stroud
    QBHOUHOU
    PPG
    14.07
  3. Justin Herbert
    JustinHerbert
    QBLACLAC
    PPG
    17.41
  4. Ladd McConkey
    LaddMcConkey
    WRLACLAC
    PPG
    8.98
Geoff Ulrich