Underdog Pick 'Em Selections For Week 8: Drake Maye Over The Top

Another week, another 50% hit rate. I came agonizingly close to hitting all three of my core picks, but Tucker Kraft came up just two yards short. That was extra tilting because he recorded 43 of his 48 receiving yards on one drive in the first quarter. It's almost like if Green Bay continued to feature him, it might have won the game. That's just the facts, don't put it in the newspaper that I'm mad.

A 50% hit rate isn't bad, but it isn't good enough to make money, and that's what we're trying to do here. Let's get back to it here in Week 8 and find some winners.

If you’re new to this article, every week I will be bringing you my favorite picks on Underdog. I will start by highlighting three of the best picks for the week based on the line vs. fantasy football projections. I will also give you a couple of my favorite longshot selections for the week that you can include to juice your pick 'em payouts. Now that we have six weeks of data to look at, I will also be incorporating position-level matchup information, particularly our DvP tool to identify the most advantageous matchups.

One quick thing to note before diving in is that I live in an Underdog Champions state, which means that my payouts may look slightly different than they would for someone who lives in a standard pick 'em state, but the differences should be minimal.

Week 8 Underdog Pick 'Em Selections

Drake Maye higher than 224.5 passing yards

After a difficult start to the season, Drake Maye has been on a tear for the last four weeks. He has averaged just under 300 passing yards per game over that stretch to go along with 12 passing TDs vs. just 2 interceptions. He's playing good football again and he now faces a Miami Dolphins defense that is allowing the highest dropback EPA per play and success rate in the NFL.

The Fantasy Life projections have Maye for 237.3 passing yards this week, which is a decent edge over this line. However, that projection bakes in lower passing volume with just 29 attempts, presumably because the Patriots are expected to control this game as 7-point road favorites. Maye has not attempted fewer than 31 passes in any of his last four games, including in a blowout win over the Raiders. Our projections give me confidence that even if his volume does come down, this has a good chance of hitting. If New England keeps its foot on the gas or the game is closer than expected, this should easily clear.

Luther Burden higher than 49.5 receiving yards

Don't look now but the Chicago offense has finally started featuring its good players. Please don't make me regret those words, Ben Johnson. In his two games back from injury, Caleb Williams has thrown for 300+ yards in each of them. The Bears will have a tougher test in Week 8 on the road in Seattle. Although Seattle boasts one of the best pass defenses in the league, I expect Johnson to be able to scheme up quick passes to relieve some of the pressure of Seattle's great pass rush. Luther Burden should be the beneficiary of those, and his run-after-the catch ability makes it so that he doesn't need downfield targets to create chunk plays. Chicago also has the advantage of having last played on Thursday Night Football, giving them a rest and preparation edge for this game.

The Fantasy Life projections have Burden at 58.8 receiving yards this week, and that already accounts for the difficult matchup. Fantasy managers are understandably cautious coming off of Seattle's dominant performance on Sunday Night Football, but I don't want to double count that. Burden has cleared this line in five of seven games this season and should be one of Chicago's more effective weapons due to his versatility and slot usage.

Cam Ward lower than 199.5 passing yards

Cam Ward has thrown for more than 200 yards in just one game this season. That is despite being in a trailing game script in most of their matchups so far this year. Ward is averaging just over 33 dropbacks per game, but has been inefficient at converting those opportunities into production with his 5.7 yards per attempt this season ranking 33rd out of 36 qualifying QBs,

If you read my weekly DST article, you know the Cincinnati defense has caught my attention with its solid play. The Bengals are giving up the fifth-lowest EPA per play on dropbacks of any team, while Tennessee has the third worst pass-block win rate. Even if Tennessee is forced to throw a lot while in comeback mode, I'm not convinced Ward will be able to move the ball effectively. As long as the line is reasonable, I want to continue betting against him until he proves me wrong.

Week 8 Underdog Pick 'Em Longshot

Joe Burrow higher than 2.5 passing TDs

The Bengals offense has been clicking, scoring 30+ points in each of their last two games. In both of those contests, Joe Burrow threw 4 TDs. As their running game has faltered, they are increasingly leaning on their star QB and talented pass catchers.

In Week 8 the Bengals take on a Tennessee Titans defense that is solid against the run but poor against the pass, though the trade of All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons will have a negative impact on the run D. The Bengals should score plenty of points in this game, they are favored by 10 with a 46.5 point game, and it's a good bet a lot of those points come through the air. In the Fantasy Life projections, Joe Burrow currently has the highest passing TD projection at 2.2.

Of course, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are always threats to score from distance, but Cincinnati has also been willing to throw the ball close to the end zone. Burrow's 18 pass attempts inside the 10-yard line are tied for sixth most among all QBs and he has converted 7 of those into TDs. Coming out of their Week 6 bye, the team also began featuring Samaje Perine around the goal line. It's only been one week, but if that usage continues, it could point toward more pass attempts near the goal line.