NFL DFS Conference Championship Plays: Kenneth Walker and JSN Lead The Way

And then there were four. After all the talk about how “wide open” the playoffs felt this season, we’re left with arguably the four best teams in Conference Championship weekend. The Denver Broncos will host the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship, while the NFC will feature the Seattle Seahawks at home vs. the Los Angeles Rams.

Of course, getting to this point was anything but easy for these teams. The Rams and Broncos both had to survive overtime in the Divisional Round, and the Broncos lost starting QB Bo Nix in the process. If they’re going to make it to the Super Bowl, they’ll have to do it with their backup QB under center.

The Patriots also struggled to put away the Texans for most of the game, despite C.J. Stroud imploding at quarterback. It took one of the best catches of the season from Kayshon Boutte to ultimately put things out of reach.

The Seahawks were the only team that rolled in the Divisional Round, and they were playing an extremely banged-up 49ers squad. However, the Seahawks were also dealt a blow in that contest, losing Zach Charbonnet to a torn ACL.

We’re left with two games that have the potential to be excellent this Sunday. The Patriots are currently listed as 4.0-point road favorites over the Broncos, while the Seahawks are -2.5 vs. the Rams.

Let’s dive into some of the top DFS targets for the two-game slate and some potential alternatives at each position.

Conference Championship NFL DFS Plays For DraftKings and FanDuel

Drake Maye at Broncos ($6,000 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)

The “final four” at quarterback is not exactly a who’s who. We’re missing most of the traditional big-name passers, guys like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts. Instead, we’re left with Matthew Stafford and three guys who are still looking to make their mark on the biggest stage.

While Maye is only in his second season, he’s quickly established himself as an elite option at the position. He led the league in both completion percentage and adjusted yards per attempt this season, which is a pretty rare combination. He was rewarded with a second-team All-Pro selection, and he has a chance to take home the MVP as well.

For fantasy purposes, Maye combines his efficient passing with solid rushing upside. He didn’t use his legs much vs. the Texans, but he averaged 26.5 rushing yards per game with four total scores during the regular season. Add it all up, and he trailed only Allen at the position in terms of fantasy points per game.

Maye’s matchup vs. the Broncos is far from ideal, but Denver’s defense isn’t unfallible. Josh Allen and the Bills scored 30 points against them last week, and they’re merely ninth in pass defense EPA for the year. They represent a slightly easier test than the Texans did last week, and Maye was able to hold his own against that group.

Ultimately, he stands out as the top option on a slate without a true slam-dunk at the position.

Other QB Options

Matthew Stafford ($6,300 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel): Stafford is the other marquee option, tying with Maye in terms of fantasy points per game during the regular season. However, he’ll have to deal with a brutal set of circumstances this week. This will be the Rams’ third straight road game, and the Seahawks’ defense has been ferocious this season. He also provides nothing with his legs, so he’s going to have to do all his damage with his right arm. That makes him a bit riskier than Maye, and he’s a bit more expensive.
Sam Darnold ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): The Seahawks have the top implied team total on the slate, but how much they’ll get from their quarterback remains to be seen. Darnold is still very much an unproven commodity, and he needed to throw the ball only 17 times last week vs. the 49ers. The Rams are also an excellent defensive team, though Darnold did have 21.5 DraftKings points the last time these teams met in Seattle. He’s my favorite pivot for tournaments in lineups where I’m not using Maye.
Jarrett Stidham ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Stidham is a bit of a wild card. He’s making just his fifth career start, though he is considered one of the better backup QBs in football. The best thing he has going for him is his price tag on DraftKings. He’s the cheapest QB by a wide margin, and using him allows you to load up at the other positions.

Kenneth Walker vs. Rams ($6,200 DraftKings, 8,000 FanDuel)

Walker should be the heavy chalk at running back. Just like at QB, most of the biggest names in fantasy have already been sent home. Most of the remaining squads use some sort of committee at the position, so there is no true stud to consider.

Walker figures to be the closest thing to it. With Charbonnet now on the sidelines, Walker has a chance to be a true bell-cow back for the Seahawks moving forward.

That’s an extremely appealing proposition. Walker averaged 4.7 yards per carry this season, and he racked up 116 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns vs. the 49ers in the Divisional Round. The Rams are definitely a tougher matchup, but they’re also far from elite: they ranked 12th in rush defense EPA for the year. Walker had at least 20 DraftKings points in his two previous matchups vs. the Rams this season, and those were with Charbonnet in the picture.

Ultimately, he’s the running back most likely to accrue 20+ touches in this spot, making him a tough fade. That’s particularly true on DraftKings, where he hasn’t been priced up nearly as aggressively as he has on FanDuel.

Rhamondre Stevenson at Broncos ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

The Patriots are the biggest favorites of the weekend, which bodes well for their running backs. Teams tend to run the ball more when they’re winning than when they’re losing, so it could be a good game script for the Pats’ RBs.

Stevenson continues to prove that he’s the back to roster in New England. He’s garnered the majority of the high-value touches in the team’s backfield all season, handling 67% of the short-yardage and 86% of the long-down-and-distance snaps. He also had a clear edge over TreVeyon Henderson in the rest of the touches in the Divisional Round as well, handling 62% of the snaps and 55% of the rushing attempts.

Henderson has cracked double-digit PPR points in seven straight games, and he’s had more than 15 in four of them. That gives him a nice combination of floor and ceiling at his price tag.

Other RB Options

RJ Harvey ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): The big X-factor in the Broncos’ backfield is the potential return of J.K. Dobbins on Sunday. The Broncos have opened up his practice window, and his return would be a clear downgrade for Harvey. However, Dobbins would likely be limited in his first game back, and Harvey should continue to serve as a pass-catching option at a minimum. He’s had a target share of at least 10% in six of his past seven outings, and he’s finished with double-digit PPR points in each of those games. He ultimately looks similar to Stevenson on paper, but Stevenson gets the edge due to his superior team outlook: the Broncos’ 18.0-point implied team total is the lowest of the week by a decent margin.
Kyren Williams ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel): Williams is arguably the biggest name left at the position, and the team leaned on him a bit heavier in their last contest. He racked up 70% of the team’s rushing attempts after splitting the opportunities with Blake Corum pretty evenly over the previous few months. It’s possible that’s just a one-week outlier, but it also gives Williams some upside if that trend continues.
TreVeyon Henderson ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): Henderson has underwhelmed during the Patriots playoff run, but he’s still capable of turning any touch into a long score. If the Patriots can build up a lead against the Broncos, he could see a few more opportunities than usual, as well.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,000 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel)

There are two clear top options at the position on this slate: Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua. Neither player was particularly impressive in the Divisional Round, but they were the clear top producers at receiver during the regular season. Nacua led all receivers with an average of 23.4 PPR points per game, while Smith-Njigba was No. 2 at 21.2. JSN had the edge from a utilization standpoint, while Nacua played for the more explosive passing attack.

Choosing between these two is a bit like splitting hairs, but JSN gets the slight edge due to his cheaper price tag. His numbers last week are uninspiring (outside of a touchdown), but he still had a 25% target share in a game where the Seahawks didn’t have to throw much. Darnold will almost certainly need to attempt more than 17 passes in this game, and there’s a good chance that JSN will be on the receiving end. He had a 35% target share and 49% air yards share during the regular season, both of which were among the best marks in the league.

Smith-Njigba was also remarkably consistent, scoring more than 20 PPR points in 13 of his first 15 games. That includes both contests vs. the Rams. His production has fallen off a bit of late, but that feels more game script-related than anything else. As long as this game is more competitive, expect Smith-Njigba to go right back to being the same stud he’s been all year. Getting that guy at $8,000 feels like a massive steal.

Puka Nacua ($9,000 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel)

While JSN might be the better pure value, there’s no denying that Nacua has more upside. He already has five games with more than 30 DraftKings points this season, and he has one of just under 50. Nacua went off for 37.5 DraftKings points in the Rams first playoff game before stumbling back to reality last week vs. the Bears.

Nacua still managed 10 targets in that outing, and he now has a 33% target share during the postseason. His route participation is also up over that time frame, giving him arguably even more upside than he had during the regular season.

The biggest issue for Nacua is the matchup. The Seahawks have allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to opposing receivers, and they’re fifth in pass defense EPA overall. Nacua did have one monster game vs. the Seahawks earlier this season, but that was with Davante Adams out of the lineup. He was much more mediocre in his first game vs. Seattle, finishing with seven catches for 75 scoreless yards.

Ultimately, Nacua isn’t quite as strong a value as Smith-Njigba, but both guys are still priority targets. Pairing both together isn’t particularly easy on DraftKings, but it’s my favorite lineup construction at the moment.

Cooper Kupp ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)

Kupp stands out as my favorite of the cheap receivers, and using at least one is essential if you’re going to get to Nacua, Smith-Njigba and Walker. Despite the addition of Rashid Shaheed, Kupp has maintained his role as the No. 2 option in Seattle’s passing attack. He has an 82% route participation and 17% target share since Shaheed was acquired, while Shaheed is at 65% and 10%, respectively.

Kupp was even more involved than usual in the team’s first playoff game. He had a 31% target share vs. the 49ers, albeit over a very small sample. He caught all five of his targets for 60 yards, getting him to 11 PPR points.

Kupp is ultimately too cheap for his current role at $3,800. I’m very comfortable using him in cash games to be access some of the more expensive options.

Other WR Options

Davante Adams ($6,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): If you’re not going with the Nacua/JSN combo, pivoting to Adams is the logical next step. He was a huge part of the Rams passing attack during the regular season, especially around the goal line. He’s coming off a poor showing last week vs. the Bears, but he did have 13 targets vs. the Panthers the week prior.
Stefon Diggs ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Diggs has been underpriced on FanDuel virtually all season, and that’s the case once again this week. He’s $600 cheaper than Courtland Sutton on that site, despite being $100 more expensive on DraftKings. Diggs hasn’t seen a huge uptick in targets during the postseason, but he has been on the field at a much higher frequency. He’s had an 85% route participation in both contests, so he has more opportunities to score than he did during the regular season.
Courtland Sutton ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): It’s still unclear who will be out there at receiver for the Broncos on Sunday. Pat Bryant and Troy Franklin are both dealing with injuries, so we won’t know their availability until closer to game time. Regardless, Sutton should serve as their top option. He was quiet for most of the game vs. the Bills, but he still finished with a 23% target share and 9.6 PPR points. He had a 27% target share from Weeks 14 through 17, so he could be a bit undervalued.

Hunter Henry ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)

Tight end has looked dicey for the duration of the playoffs, and it’s only gotten weaker as more teams have been eliminated. We lost George Kittle to injury after the Wild Card round, and Colston Loveland is now out of the picture as well.

It leaves Henry as the easy choice for the top option at the position in the Conference Championships. He’s been a reliable fantasy producer for most of the year, though he doesn’t bring the highest ceiling to the table. Still, he was 13th at the position in PPR points per game during the regular season, while none of the other remaining options were inside the top 20.

Henry also managed 15.4 PPR points in his first playoff outing before coming back to reality against the Texans elite defense. The Broncos haven’t been quite as strong against TEs as they have against other positions, ranking 16th in PPR points per game allowed.

Add it all up, and Henry has the clear top marks at the position. He’s not much more expensive than the other options available on this slate, so he’s worth paying up for.

Other TE Options

AJ Barner ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): Barner is the only TE besides Henry who stands out as his team’s clear-cut No. 1 option at the position. He’s also put together two solid performances vs. the Rams this season. He had at least 15.0 DraftKings points in both matchups, so he’s a reasonable pivot.
Colby Parkinson ($3,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Among the Rams plethora of tight ends, Parkinson is the one to feel the best about. He led the group in routes and targets last week, and he had some solid performances to close out the regular season as well.
Evan Engram ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): Maybe a new QB will cure the malaise that has plagued Engram for most of the year? It’s doubtful, but anything is possible. It certainly can’t get much worse for Engram with Stidham under center after finishing with just 1.7 PPR points last week.

Players Mentioned in this Article

DrakeMaye
QBNE
PPG
19.45
Proj
16.94
PukaNacua
WRLAR
PPG
19.79
JaxonSmith-Njigba
WRSEA
PPG
16.84
Proj
16.21
KennethWalker
RBKC
PPG
12.23
Proj
15.74