DraftKings NFL DFS Picks For Saints vs. Falcons Showdown Slate: Bijan Robinson Headlines NFC South Battle

We have an NFC South divisional rivalry to wrap up NFL Week 4. The NFC South looks wide open once again this season, so it’s a big matchup any time two of these squads square off. The New Orleans Saints will host the Atlanta Falcons, with the winner moving to 2-2 for the year. That will put them in first place, albeit with a lot of games left to go.

The Saints have had a better offense than expected through three weeks. They’re in the top 11 in both points and yards per game, and they’re just slightly behind that mark in terms of EPA per play. However, the team will have to overcome the absence of starting running back Travis Etienne, who landed on IR following a hamstring injury last week.

The Falcons were arguably the worst team in football through the first two weeks, but they got a major shot in the arm in Week 3. Michael Penix returned as the team’s starting QB, and the team responded with their best performance of the year. They scored 35 points on 495 yards of total offense, giving them some optimism moving forward.

Let’s dive into all the DraftKings NFL DFS picks for Monday Night Football.

DraftKings NFL DFS Spend-Up Studs To Target For Saints vs. Falcons Showdown Slate

Bijan Robinson ($11,800 Flex, $17,700 Captain)

Call me crazy, but this Robinson guy might be pretty good. He was the team’s only offense through the first two weeks, though he got a bit of help in Week 3. Still, Robinson managed 213 scrimmage yards and two total touchdowns, resulting in 38.3 DraftKings points.

Robinson has some of the best utilization in football. He has handled just 68% of the Falcons’ rushing attempts, but he makes up for it with his work in the most important areas for fantasy scoring. His 22% target share is tied for the top mark among running backs, while he’s handled 100% of the carries from inside the five-yard line. If he can keep catching passes and scoring touchdowns, who cares if he occasionally loses work between the 20s?

Robinson is the top fantasy target basically every time he takes the field, and this game is no exception. The Saints have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs this season, and they allowed Robinson’s closest fantasy comparable (Jahmyr Gibbs) to go wild in Week 1. He has the top projections on this slate, and it’s hard to imagine him failing to make an impact one way or another.

Tyler Shough ($9,600 Flex, $14,400 Captain)

Shough showed flashes of potential down the stretch as a rookie, and he’s carried that into the start of this season. He leads the league with 91 completions, and he’s averaged more than 300 passing yards per game. Shough has also thrown eight touchdown passes, and he’s added 22.3 rushing yards per game with one score on the ground. Add it all up, and Shough was QB3 in fantasy scoring entering Week 4.

With Etienne now out of the picture, Shough is going to have to keep slinging it. The Saints currently have the second-highest dropback rate in football (69%), so they’re comfortable putting the ball in the hands of their young quarterback.

That could pay dividends vs. the Falcons. Their defense has been respectable against the pass this season, but two of their three games have come against subpar offenses (Packers and Steelers). When they faced Bryce Young and the Panthers, they were shredded for 34 points and 272 passing yards.

Shough ultimately has the second-best projection in this contest, despite just the fourth-highest salary. That’s a pretty nice combination.

NFL DFS FLEX Picks On DraftKings For NO vs. ATL Showdown

Chris Olave ($10,800 Flex, $15,400 Captain)

It’s a pretty tough call for the title of “best receiver on the slate.” Drake London went off with Penix back in the lineup last week, which is nothing new. He’s historically posted a target share north of 30% with Penix under center, and he had 10 targets, 194 receiving yards, and 31.4 DraftKings points last week vs. the Packers.

That said, it’s hard to ignore what Olave has done through the first three weeks. His 29% target share is the sixth-best mark at the position, while his 48% air yards share ranks fifth. He’s responded with the fourth-most PPR points per game at the position, trailing only Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and CeeDee Lamb.

Olave should continue to be fed the football on offense, especially with Etienne joining Jordyn Tyson on the sidelines. He grades out as a stronger option than London by the slimmest of margins.

Alvin Kamara ($7,000 Flex, $10,500 Captain)

The big question in New Orleans is how the RB responsibilities will shake out sans Etienne. While Kendre Miller could handle most of the rushing attempts, Kamara will undoubtedly see a few additional opportunities. That’s extremely appealing on PPR sites like DraftKings.

Kamara has always been an outstanding pass-catcher, and he had six targets in his first game this season. He only had one in his second, but that feels like a clear outlier.

He should be locked into double-digit opportunities in this spot, with a solid chunk of them coming in the passing game. It makes him a solid value at $7,000.

How To Differentiate Your DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup For Saints vs. Falcons

Brian Robinson ($3,800 Flex, $5,700 Captain)

It still feels criminal that the Falcons have two “B. Robinsons” at running back. I know at least a few people messed that up in an online draft or auction.

However, Robinson has slid pretty comfortably into Tyler Allgeier’s role from last season. He doesn’t have the same goal-line upside as Allgeier did, but he’s had at least nine carries in all three games this season. He’s racked up at least 8.7 DraftKings points in his past two, so he’s getting enough work to be relevant in the single-game format. You can even theoretically pair him with Bijan if you think the Falcons can control this contest.

Bryce Lance ($1,800 Flex, $2,700 Captain)

Lance was considered a bit of a project when the Saints selected him in the 2026 NFL Draft, but he’s had a role in the offense to start the year. He’s posted a 77% route participation, which is a fantastic figure for his price tag.

Lance has mostly just been doing cardio out there, with a 7% target share through three games. Still, getting on the field is half the battle, and Lance should see plenty of snaps on Monday. He’s also projected for less than 10% ownership, making him the perfect punt play for stars-and-scrubs builds.