Raiders vs Chiefs Pick: Why We Like Las Vegas to Cover
Betting

Raiders vs Chiefs Pick: Why We Like Las Vegas to Cover

Matt LaMarca breaks down the Raiders vs. Chiefs Week 4 matchup from a betting perspective, including picks, predictions, and a player prop bet.

Published Updated

Who would’ve thought the biggest matchup of NFL Week 4 would involve the Raiders? They’re hosting their biggest rivals in a matchup between two undefeated squads, with the winners jumping out to a clear lead in the AFC West.

The Chiefs have long been contenders in the AFC. They hit a rough patch last year, but they’re back to being one of the best teams in football. Patrick Mahomes and the offense look better than they have in years, with Kenneth Walker giving them a legit threat in the run game. The defense has also impressed through three weeks, ranking in the top four in both yards and points per game.

The Raiders are the bigger surprise. They haven’t exactly had to run the gauntlet so far this season—they’ve beaten the Dolphins, Chargers, and Saints—but they’ve passed all three tests with flying colors. They’ll have a chance to make a real statement vs. the Chiefs, and a win would make the playoffs a probability. Teams that start the year 4-0 have historically made the playoffs 89.5% of the time.

Let’s dive into all the betting metrics for this matchup.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds For Week 4

  • Spread: Chiefs -4.5 (-110; Fanatics)
  • Moneyline: Chiefs -218, Raiders +180
  • Game Total: 47.5

There was hope that Walker would unlock a different dimension for the Chiefs offensively. They haven’t had a legit running back in basically the entire Mahomes era. Things were particularly brutal last year, with the combination of Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt ranking as arguably the worst duo in football.

We’re still early in the season, but the results have been promising. Walker has averaged 120 yards per game on 5.5 yards per attempt, and Mahomes has responded with improved efficiency as a passer. He’s averaged 8.8 adjusted yards per attempt, which is his best mark since the 2020-21 season.

The Raiders' offense is built around their two studs: Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers. Bowers missed the first two games of the season, but he returned with a vengeance in Week 3. He racked up 14 targets, which he converted into 10 catches, 116 yards, and a touchdown. Kirk Cousins loved leaning on Kyle Pitts in Atlanta, and it appears as though Bowers is going to get an even heavier workload.

Meanwhile, Jeanty is looking to prove that his rookie season struggles were a fluke. He started the year with a big performance vs. the Dolphins, finishing with 102 rushing yards, 45 receiving yards, and two touchdowns, but he’s come back to reality over his past two outings. For the year, he’s mustered a subpar 3.3 yards per attempt. The Raiders have been able to survive without big Jeanty games vs. the Chargers and Saints, but they’re going to need more to get past the Chiefs.

Defensively, both of these teams are above average. The Raiders spent big on their defense this offseason, and ultimately held on to Maxx Crosby after his trade with the Ravens was called off. It’s resulted in the No. 3 defense in EPA per play through three weeks, with the team forcing nine turnovers.

How that unit holds up vs. the Chiefs is one of the big question marks in this contest. If they can slow down the Chiefs, this has the potential to be a competitive contest. If they can't, they likely don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up.

Prediction & Pick For Raiders vs. Chiefs Week 4 Matchup

  • The Pick: Raiders +4.5 (-105; DraftKings)

From my NFL Week 4 Best Bets column:

While the Chiefs have historically been elite at winning games with Mahomes under center, they have struggled to cover the spread. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, the Chiefs are merely 28-44-2 ATS with Mahomes under center as favorites of greater than a field goal.

In recent years, the Chiefs have become experts at doing just enough to win games. They did manage to thump the Dolphins last week, covering the 10.5-point spread, but they needed overtime to get past the Colts the week prior. The matchup vs. the Dolphins was also a bit closer than it seemed on paper: Miami had 329 yards of total offense, just five fewer than the Chiefs.

The sharps have shown clear interest in the Raiders in this spot, dropping the line from 5.5 to 4.5, and the crowd in Las Vegas should be rocking. This is the biggest football game the team has played in years. Ultimately, I like their chances of keeping things close, and they should at least have a chance for a backdoor cover.

Best Player Prop Bet For Raiders vs. Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-114; FanDuel)

This prop correlates with my belief that the Raiders can keep things competitive. In the Chiefs’ two easy wins, Mahomes has barely broken a sweat. He had just 24 pass attempts last week vs. the Dolphins and 27 in Week 1 vs. the Broncos.

But in their lone competitive contest? Mahomes dropped back for 47 pass attempts vs. the Colts. For his career, Mahomes has averaged closer to 37 pass attempts per game. This is a rare opportunity to buy low on one of the best QBs in NFL history. As long as the Raiders can keep Walker from running wild, Mahomes should have to make some throws in this contest.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Patrick Mahomes
    PatrickMahomesQ
    QBKCKC
    PPG
    19.7
    Proj
    18.1

Published Updated