NFL Total (Over/Under) Picks for Week 3: Fireworks Ahead in San Francisco?

The under came storming back with a vengeance in Week 2. The weather was ugly seemingly across the country, and it had a clear impact on scoring. As a result, the under went 10-6. If not for some of the primetime games going over, it could’ve been an even uglier week for scoring.

How will things fare in Week 3? We’re seeing some sharp betting activity on both overs and unders this week, so there should be opportunities to find value on both sides.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite options for this Sunday.

Week 2 NFL Total (Over/Under) Picks

New York Jets at Detroit Lions Over 47.5

Best Price: -108; DraftKings
Play To: 48.5

The Lions look like a smash over team until further notice. They have an elite offense that is capable of putting up points against anyone and a defense that can’t stop a nosebleed. They’ve allowed 30+ points to each of their first two opponents, and both of those contests have flown over their respective totals.

The Jets represent an interesting stylistic matchup. They’ve been a clear “under” team through two weeks, with their defense looking vastly improved compared to last year. They’ve held each of their first two opponents to less than 200 yards, and they’ve held the Titans and Packers to just 30 points combined.

I’m bullish on the Jets overall—they seem much more talented than in years past—but this is clearly a step up in weight class for them. Specifically, I don’t think their defense is going to look nearly as dominant as it has the first two weeks.

The Titans are one of the weakest offensive teams in football, and the Packers have proven they’re not much better without Josh Jacobs.

The Lions should be able to put some points on the scoreboard in this contest, and I think the Jets should be able to respond. Detroit is 31st in defensive EPA through the first two weeks, so I expect Geno Smith and company to hold up their end of the bargain.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers Over 47.5

Best Price: -115; DraftKings
Play To: 48.5

The 49ers are so back, baby. Their offense is healthy for the first time seemingly in years, and they have responded with two elite showings to start the season. They racked up 27 points against the Rams in Australia, and they followed that up with 35 points at home vs. the Dolphins.

There’s no reason to expect any different in Week 3. The Cardinals’ defense just surrendered 381 yards and 31 points to the Seahawks, despite Seattle missing Sam Darnold. If the Seahawks can do that kind of damage, the 49ers should be able to follow suit.

The bigger question is what can the Cardinals’ offense do? They were completely shut down by the Seahawks last week, but Seattle has arguably the best defense in football. The 49ers are significantly better than they were on defense last year, but they’re still not in that category.

The Cardinals have shown the ability to put points on the board with Jacoby Brissett under center. Brissett was 8-4 to the over as the Cardinals’ starting QB last season, and they scored 26 points against the Chargers in Week 1. If they can get to just 17 points or so in this matchup, the 49ers should be able to get us the rest of the way there.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers Bears Under 42.5

Best Price: -105; FanDuel
Play To: Under 42.5 (-115)

I want absolutely nothing to do with the Steelers’ offense at the moment. That’s not exactly a hot take. They weren’t a particularly effective unit last year, and they’ve shown zero improvement under new head coach Mike McCarthy. If anything, they’ve gotten worse: They currently rank dead last in EPA per play offensively.

It’s hard to imagine things getting any better against the Bengals. Cincinnati’s defense has more than held its own through the first two weeks. They forced four turnovers against the Buccaneers in Week 1, and they held the Texans to just 6 points last week. They’re probably not going to be that good moving forward—they’re merely 21st in defensive EPA—but this isn’t the same disastrous unit we’ve seen over the past few seasons.

On the other side, the Steelers still have a fantastic defense. They’re first in the league in defensive EPA, and they’ve wreaked havoc against opposing QBs. They have seven sacks across their first two games, with T.J. Watt garnering 3.5 himself.

That could spell trouble for the Bengals. Joe Burrow was brought down behind the line five times last week, which kept their offense in check.

Divisional games also tend to be lower scoring than non-divisional contests, so this game feels like a clear under. The sharps seem to agree, with Under 42.5 getting more interest than basically any other total on the board.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders Under 40.5

Best Price: -110; BetMGM
Play To: 39.5

This game is going to be Drew Lock vs. Marcus Mariota; I don’t think I need to say much more than that.

The Commanders could get absolutely nothing done with Mariota under center against the Cowboys last week, and Dallas still has one of the worst defenses in football. That doesn’t bode well for his ability to score vs. the Seahawks.

Lock has looked pretty competent since taking over for the Seahawks, but he’s still a backup quarterback. Seattle managed just 13 points in their season opener before bouncing back against the Cardinals' porous defense last week.

Ultimately, I expect Seattle to do some scoring in this spot. Washington has a pitiful stop unit, and Seattle still has some talent on offense. Specifically, Jaxon Smith-Njigba looks uncoverable right now. But even if they can get to 24+ points, do we think the Commanders can get the rest of the way there? I’m skeptical.