NFL Total (Over/Under) Picks for Week 2: Who Would Dare Fade the Bears?

NFL Week 1 was a good week for the over. After two unders to start the year, the over went 9-5 across Sunday and Monday. We saw a few games fly way over the listed mark—I’m looking at you, Bears—and offense seemed up in general. That was good news for the sharps, who saw plenty of value on overs heading into the week.

Can Week 2 continue the trend? Historically, the under has been the play early in the year. Before this season, the under was 137-102-1 through the first three weeks over the previous five seasons.

Let’s dive into two of my favorite overs and unders for the Week 2 slate.

Week 2 NFL Total (Over/Under) Picks

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens Over 46.5

Best Price: -104; FanDuel
Play To: 47.5

What a “remember me?” performance from the Ravens in Week 1. There was some concern with their offense after last season, but they erased all of it with their showing vs. the Colts. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry both looked phenomenal, and they racked up 41 points and more than 500 yards of total offense.

There’s no reason they can’t do it again against the Saints in Week 2. The Saints defense wasn’t awful vs. the Lions, but they weren’t particularly impressive, either. They surrendered 31 points in the overtime loss, with Jahmyr Gibbs doing massive damage on the ground. He averaged 5.5 yards per attempt on 29 carries, so Henry could be poised for a similar level of production.

On the other side, the Saints’ offense should hold up their end of the bargain. They looked a bit lost in the first half of Week 1, but they completely turned things around in the second. Tyler Shough ultimately finished with 410 passing yards and three touchdowns, while Chris Olave galloped through the Lions’ secondary for 182 receiving yards. The Saints are also expected to get Alvin Kamara back for this contest, and while he’s clearly not the same player he was in his prime, it gives Shough another option in the passing attack.

The sharps have shown clear interest in the over in this contest, and I personally make this total closer to 48.5. I went down with the Ravens’ under last week; I’m not making the same mistake again.

New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams Over 48.0

Best Price: -110; BetMGM
Play To: 48.5

There are definitely reasons to be skeptical of the Rams at the moment. They looked pretty dreadful in Week 1 against the 49ers, who weren’t exactly a defensive juggernaut last year. Matthew Stafford averaged just 4.4 adjusted yards per attempt, and he finished with just 155 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception. At nearly 39 years old, it’s possible that he’s simply not going to be the same player this season.

That said, Stafford has earned the benefit of the doubt, and last week’s game was played under unusual circumstances. Not only was the game played in Australia, but the Rams made the decision to fly there basically right before kickoff. The 49ers spent nearly a full week adjusting to Australia, and that difference showed on the field. Los Angeles should still have a really good offense, and they were a bit better than their results reflected in Week 1: They were 18th in yardage compared to 32nd in points.

However, the Giants are the real reason to be excited about the over. They looked outstanding against the Cowboys’ revamped defense in Week 1. Jaxson Dart played with a maturity that he didn’t show as a rookie, while Cam Skattebo was efficient on the ground. They were ultimately fourth in EPA per play offensively.

I like the Giants to keep the momentum rolling vs. the Rams. They’re going to be without Myles Garrett, and they have an extremely top-heavy squad. Without their biggest stud, they look vulnerable on defense.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears Under 48.5

Best Price: -110; DraftKings
Play To: 47.5

This pick might be a bit crazy. Ben Johnson said before the start of the season that he wanted to set a new record for points scored. Then his team went out and scored 59 points in Week 1. Their defense also allowed 37, so the Bears could be an absolute over machine this season.

Still, it was just one week. I’m going to need a bigger sample before making any sweeping declarations, and we’re getting some solid value with their under in Week 2. This game was 45.5 on the lookahead line, so we’re getting three full points after last week’s showing.

The Vikings are going to represent a significantly tougher test for Caleb Williams and company. Brian Flores is one of the best defensive coordinators in football, and his group was excellent against the Bears last year. They averaged just 318.5 yards in their two meetings, and Williams’ numbers were extremely pedestrian.

Add in the fact that the Vikings will likely have Carson Wentz under center, and this looks like a clear under. If the Bears’ offense goes off in this matchup, then it’s time to reevaluate their prospects for the rest of the year.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos Under 45.5

Best Price: -109; Caesars
Play To: 45.5

These teams got off to drastically different starts this season. The Jaguars basically got a bye in Week 1, and they absolutely trampled the Browns at home. The Broncos had to head into Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Chiefs, and they got dogwalked by their biggest rivals. Kenneth Walker ran roughshod through them, tallying 173 yards on just 23 carries.

The good news for Denver is that they won’t have to deal with a Walker-level RB in this matchup. Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez are a below-average duo at the position, which should put their defense in a much stronger position. Their pass defense is among the best in the league, so as long as they don’t get gashed on the ground, they should be able to limit the damage on the scoreboard.

On the other side, the Broncos’ offense left a lot to be desired in Week 1. That’s not exactly a new development. Their offense had a lot of fourth-quarter comebacks last year, but they were merely 10th in EPA per play and yards per game. They’re still an above-average unit, but they’re far from elite.

Just like with last week, we’re not showing a ton of value with unders in Week 2. The Bears-Vikings game stands out, but most of the other games lean toward the over. This is another exception, with our projected total sitting at 44.0.