NFL Spread Picks for Week 5: Cardinals to Cover Against the Lions

Heading into the year, the NFC North was projected to be a bloodbath, with all four divisional foes graded out fairly equal to each other. A quarter into the season, the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers have severely underwhelmed while the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings have exceeded expectations, creating a trio of bets within the division to help round out the card for the weekend.

NFL Spread Picks for Week 5

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) vs. New Orleans Saints (-109, BetRivers)

Since the start of the regular season, the Minnesota Vikings have been dominant on defense, leading the league in DVOA, EPA allowed per play, and success rate. Even with the offense struggling to get into a groove, the defense has been able to keep the Vikings competitive by consistently holding opponents to early outs, spotting Will Reichard generous field position for field goal attempts.

Speaking of Minnesota’s offense, positive regression is looming large in a favorable matchup against New Orleans with the Vikings drawing a defense that ranks 32nd in defensive rush EPA. With Aaron Jones forcing the Saints to stack the box, Kyler Murray will have a great opportunity to connect with his pass catchers on the outside, keeping the Vikings ahead of the sticks.

The Saints shading to the middle will also create wider running lanes on the outside for Murray to extend plays with his legs, giving the Vikings multiple paths to the red zone. With clear advantages on both sides of the ball, back the Vikings to cover the spread at no higher than the key number of three.

Chicago Bears (-2.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (-114, FanDuel)

Keeping the focus on the NFC North, the Chicago Bears have been able to brush aside regression while Caleb Williams is out with an injury, hovering near the top of the board in offensive DVOA. Tyson Bagent has been efficient with his brief time under center, ranking in the top 5 in CPOE and in success rate while completing 71% of his passes.

In a divisional matchup against the Packers, Bagent will be able to build on his momentum by picking apart a defense that has been abysmal on the back end, fielding a secondary that ranks well below league average in dropback EPA allowed per play. With the Packers also struggling to generate pressure up front, the amount of havoc in Bagent’s throws will decline, increasing his chances of keeping a clean sheet to help sustain drives down the field.

Cincinnati Bengals (-7) vs. Miami Dolphins (-112, DraftKings)

With the offense in flux, Cincinnati’s defense has been able to keep the Bengals competitive, entering Week 5 ranked ninth in dropback EPA and eighth in rush success rate. The acquisition of Dexter Lawrence has given the defense a consistent source of pressure in the trenches, allowing the LBs to sit back in coverage to help smother passing lanes at multiple levels of the field.

Against Miami, expect Lawrence and company to halt the Dolphins early on in the drive by relentlessly attacking an offensive line that ranks 30th in true pass set grade. With less time in the pocket to operate, Malik Willis will be forced to get the ball out of his hands quickly, lowering the quality of his passes, which will lead to an uptick in his total number of turnover-worthy plays.

On the other side of the ball, expect the Bengals to round back into dominant form on offense, with their pass-catchers gashing a secondary that resides in the bottom five in defensive pass success rate. If Cincinnati steams up to -7.5, bypass the spread and place the Bengals in a two-team six-point teaser with the Buffalo Bills.

Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) (-105, Fanatics)

Until Detroit is able to play at a competitive level on defense, the Lions will continue to play in highly volatile track meets, making it difficult to pull away on the scoreboard. This creates value on the underdog, making the Arizona Cardinals worth a wager at +3 or higher.

To help keep it close enough to cover the number, the Cardinals will be able to keep the ball on the ground by gashing a front seven that struggles to stuff the run, per near-dead-last marks in defensive rush DVOA and in EPA. Even if Detroit stacks the box, the Lions' corners are incapable of keeping a body near the point of contact, making it easier for Jacoby Brissett to create an explosive play through the air.