NFL Spread Picks for Week 4: Jets to Cover & More Bets

In a tale as old as time, a backup QB gets his first start and thwarts a top-tier opponent before inevitably falling back down to reality. Case Keenum will unfortunately follow in the same footsteps as the backup QBs before him, drawing a surprisingly more productive defense, which will stall out the Chicago Bears' drives down the field.

NFL Spread Picks for Week 4

New York Jets (+3.5) vs. Chicago Bears (-115, DraftKings)

Yes, the New York Jets have been more productive on defense when compared to the Eagles, hovering above them in defensive EPA and in DVOA. While the low success rate is a cause for concern, the Jets will be able to mask it against the Chicago Bears by consistently collapsing an offensive line that resides in the bottom half of the board in pass block win rate.

On the other side of the field, expect Braelon Allen to keep the Jets consistently ahead of the sticks by gashing a front seven that struggles to stuff the run per below-league-average marks in defensive rush EPA and in success rate. By forcing the Bears to stack the box, Geno Smith’s passing lanes will widen, making it easier to connect with his pass catchers to sustain drives down the field.

Bet the Jets to cover the spread with a stop point at the key number of +3. If the Jets do cross through the key number, pair them with the Seattle Seahawks in a six-point teaser.

Los Angeles Rams (-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-115, Fanatics)

Speaking of the Eagles, the defense is currently in flux, ranking near the bottom of the board in defensive DVOA. Philadelphia’s struggles on defense were on full display against the Bears, allowing Case Keenum to throw for 247 yards and two touchdowns while completing 70.58% of his passes. D’Andre Swift was also able to hit the ground running, averaging 4.2 yards per carry.

Heading into Week 4, the Eagles' struggles on defense will continue to persist while struggling to slow down the Los Angeles Rams, especially with Puka Nacua expected to make his return to the field. Even if Nacua is unable to suit up, Davante Adams has been able to thrive as the Rams' WR1, pulling defensive attention away from the middle to help Kyren Williams and Blake Corum generate sizable gains on the ground with each carry.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans (-3) (-110, FanDuel)

One of my favorite bets to win the Super Bowl, the Houston Texans have yet to look the part, limping into Sunday 0-3. While the struggles on defense can be attributed to the quality of the opponent, injuries on offense have handicapped the Texans' ceiling, slipping to the middle of the pack in offensive DVOA.

Fortunately for Houston, they will have the perfect opportunity to iron out the kinks by attacking a defense that currently ranks dead last in defensive EPA while generating pressure at a very low rate. With extra time in the pocket to operate, the amount of havoc in C.J. Stroud’s throws will decline, chipping away at his total number of turnover-worthy plays.

Negative regression is also looming on offense for the Cowboys with Dak Prescott facing off against a defensive line that is capable of collapsing the pocket in short order, giving his WRs less time in the open field to create a passing lane. With advantages on both sides of the ball, expect the Texans to round back into form and secure the first win of the season.

Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers (+4) (-115, theScore Bet)

Like the Cowboys, a matchup against the Detroit Lions back end is a get-right game for any offense. The Lions' secondary has been abysmal in coverage, plummeting to the bottom five in dropback EPA and in dropback success rate. By consistently allowing Bryce Young to cut the distance to gain in half on early downs, the Carolina Panthers' probability of converting increases while getting to keep the ball on the ground to avoid a turnover-worthy play.

To help stay within the number, the Panthers have quietly excelled on defense, entering Sunday night ranked above league average in dropback EPA per play. With question marks still looming over the interior of the Lions' offensive line, any form of pressure in the trenches will force Jared Goff to get the ball out of his hands quickly after the snap, making it difficult to connect with his pass catchers while they fight off contact.