NFL Parlay Picks for Week 7: Why We Like the Lions Over the Packers

NFL Week 6 was one to forget for this piece. I took some big swings—Chargers ML & Efton Chism anytime TD—and ultimately landed flat on my face.

Such is the life of betting parlays. You’re not supposed to win them very often, but when you do, the payout is substantial.

Let's get back on the horse for NFL Week 7. As usual, I’ll be highlighting a few of my favorite parlay pieces at different price points. You can combine all four into a single parlay or sprinkle them with some of your own selections to create your own. Ultimately, my goal is to make the parlays large enough where we only need to get one right for the entire season to be profitable.

NFL Parlay Picks for Week 7

The Underpriced Favorite

Lions ML (-165) vs. Packers

I am bullish on this Lions squad following their Week 6 bye. We already know how good their offense is. They currently rank second in points per game, third in EPA per play, and fourth in yards per game. They’re going to be able to score points against basically everyone.

The bigger question is on defense. They have given back nearly every point their offense has scored on the other end of the field. However, they should be a bit healthier after last week’s bye. Specifically, stud safety Brian Branch will be in the lineup for the first time all season. That could be a game-changer for their secondary.

I’m also pretty bearish on the Packers. It feels like they’ve turned the corner, winning three straight games, but their offense has been uninspiring in two of them. Their defense has been elite during that stretch, but with Micah Parsons still sidelined, I’m skeptical that they can do it against an elite Lions offense.

Add in the fact that Dan Campbell is 5-2 ATS with at least 13 days between games, and I think the Lions should win this one.

The Underdog

Titans ML (+110) vs. Browns

This is one of those games that feels impossible for the sportsbooks to price properly. On one hand, the Browns don’t deserve to be road favorites against anyone. But on the other hand, do the Titans deserve to be favored even at home? It’s a real Sophie’s choice.

Ultimately, I’m siding with the home team. The Browns’ recent track record as a road favorite is downright horrendous, going just 5-14 ATS over their past 19 occurrences. Both of these teams should struggle to score points—the total sits at just 37.5—so I’m expecting this one to come down to the wire. DeShaun Watson has been outstanding at winning games late for the Browns this season, but I don’t think that’s a sustainable formula.

The Longshot

Raiders ML (+165) vs. Rams

I wrote about my skepticism with the Rams in my Week 7 Best Bets column. The injuries have really started to pile up for Los Angeles, which is a big deal for such a top-heavy team. They’re missing Myles Garrett, two of their top three pass-catchers, and two additional defensive linemen, leaving this team without the star power that was expected to carry them through the regular season.

Making matters worse, Puka Nacua picked up an injury at practice on Thursday. While his calf injury is not considered serious, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports that his status vs. the Raiders is currently “up in the air.” Matthew Stafford may be a Hall-of-Fame caliber quarterback, but at nearly 40 years old, I don’t like his chances of elevating the other receivers on this roster.

Meanwhile, the Raiders have been frisky all season. Even during their recent three-game losing streak, they’ve gone toe-to-toe with the Chiefs and Bills. The Patriots were the only team to truly dominate against them, and that game was played in New England. This one will be back in Las Vegas.

I ultimately love the Raiders as home underdogs in this contest, and I think they can win the game outright as well.

The Touchdown Prop

Omar Cooper Anytime TD (+390)

Omar Cooper scored his first career touchdown for the Jets last week, and I expect him to remain a big part of the equation moving forward. The Jets traded up to get him in the first round, and they could certainly use another playmaker on offense.

The fact that Adonai Mitchell could return to the lineup this week is one potential red flag. He’s missed the past four weeks, but he’s returned to practice on a limited basis. Still, Cooper has done enough to earn a larger role moving forward.

All of the Jets’ pass-catchers have a chance to feast this week. The Dolphins have been one of the worst defensive teams in football, specifically against the pass. They’re 31st in EPA per pass attempt defensively, and they’ve already allowed 11 passing touchdowns. +390 is simply too good a price to pass up.

Final Parlay: Roughly +4280

I went a bit conservative with my first three selections, especially with my “longshot.” That said, outside of the Raiders, there was no team that really appealed to me there. It brings down the potential payout of our parlay, though the inclusion of Cooper still brings us to +4280. That works for me.

Best of luck to all of you this week!