NFL Best Bets For Week 6: Target the Ravens, Panthers & More

It was a ho-hum week for us last week. We went just 2-3, though that could’ve been 2-2-1 if you got the Dolphins at +7.0. Still, our record sits at 14-11 for the year, which is definitely acceptable.

We also had a couple of tough beats. The Commanders were one of my favorite plays last week, and they were up 14 points with less than eight minutes left on the clock. They went into prevent mode, which only prevented them from covering the spread. You know what happened next: they blew the lead in regulation, and the two teams combined for one of the worst-played overtimes in NFL history.

That said, the Dolphins beat was 100 times worse. They actually did secure the backdoor cover, scoring a touchdown to cut the lead to seven with just 45 seconds left. The only problem was no one told the kicker. He proceeded to brick the extra point, turning a cover into a push or a loss.

The good news is that the Ravens at least did their part. Despite missing Lamar Jackson, they erased an eight-point deficit late in the fourth quarter before pulling it out in overtime.

Now, we shift to Week 6. It’s our smallest slate of the year, with four teams on bye (Bengals, Lions, Dolphins, and Vikings). There’s also another London contest, so it’s a particularly light Sunday main slate. Still, there are plenty of spots to look for value.

Let’s dive into five of my favorite bets for NFL Week 6.

NFL Week 6 Best Bets

Baltimore Ravens (-5.0) at Cleveland Browns

Best Odds: -110; Fanatics
Play To: -5.5

The Ravens managed to escape with Huntley at QB last week, but getting back Jackson would obviously do a world of good. Adam Schefter reported that Jackson has a “realistic” shot at returning vs. the Browns, though he was not spotted at Wednesday’s practice. Still, as long as he can get on the practice field soon, he should earn the start in Cleveland.

Jackson doesn’t have the gaudiest statistics in the league, but he remains one of the league’s most efficient QBs. He’s leading the NFL in a host of different categories at the moment, including adjusted yards per attempt and quarterback rating. The Ravens’ offense was fifth in EPA per play through the first four weeks with Jackson under center, and only the 49ers were more efficient in terms of EPA per pass.

If Jackson does return this week, it will be in a spot where he’s historically thrived. He’s 34-20 ATS for his career on the road, including 4-2 ATS in Cleveland. He hasn’t done quite as well as a road favorite, but he’s still been pretty good at covering spreads outside of Baltimore.

This also isn’t the same Browns team that we’ve grown accustomed to. Their defense isn’t the same fearsome unit without Myles Garrett. They’re merely 20th in the league in yards allowed, despite facing a pretty uninspiring group of opposing offenses.

Jackson and company should be able to hang plenty of points on the scoreboard in this spot, and Deshaun Watson will struggle to keep up. That’s a good recipe for a cover.

Chicago Bears (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Best Odds: -102; DraftKings
Play To: -115

Jackson isn’t the only QB expected to return this week. Caleb Williams is also expected back for Chicago after going down with an injury in Week 2. The Bears played well with Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent in his stead – at least before last week’s drubbing by the Packers – but they’ll be happy to have their young star QB back in the lineup.

There’s a chance that the Bears’ offense is being significantly overlooked with Williams. Don’t forget what they did to the Panthers in Week 1: 59 points and 552 yards of total offense. They took a step back in Week 2, but that was against an elite Vikings’ defense in subpar weather conditions. With Williams back, this offense could be about to erupt.

On the other side, the Falcons feel like a ticking time bomb. Michael Penix Jr. is going to play through a rib injury, but who knows how long that will last? Penix has struggled to stay on the field throughout his career, so playing at less than 100% could end in disaster. If he is forced to leave this game, Tua Tagovailoa inspires absolutely zero confidence as his backup. He threw a game-losing interception in overtime last week, and he was so bad during the preseason that he seemingly lost a QB competition vs. himself.

Even if Penix does play the full game, the Falcons’ offense could struggle. They’ve had some success since Penix took over at QB, but their offense is basically a two-man show. If the Bears can slow down Bijan Robinson and Drake London, no one else on the team is capable of picking up the slack.

Carolina Panthers (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

Best Odds: -115; FanDuel
Play To: -120

Anyone who has been paying attention to my picks this season knows that I typically like betting on teams with backup QBs. Especially good teams. I’ve already won bets this season with Huntley and Drew Lock under center, so I’m not scared to target a backup in the right situation.

This is not one of them.

The Eagles are dealing with a bunch of different injuries on both sides of the ball. They’re missing Saquon Barkley. Lane Johnson was forced to retire. Cam Jurgens was traded to the Ravens. Even if DeVonta Smith returns this week, the team is going to be missing a ton of talent.

The market typically overvalues QB injuries. However, this line hasn’t moved as much as I believe it should. The Panthers were listed as 1.5-point favorites before Hurts was ruled out, and it’s just -3.5 currently. Hurts has his warts, but moving the spread by just two points with Tanner McKee under center just doesn’t make sense.

The Eagles have struggled offensively even when at full strength this season, and things are only going to be worse with McKee. Conversely, the Panthers have had zero issues putting points on the scoreboard this season. Three touchdowns probably covers the number vs. Philly, and they might even get the job done with less.

New York Giants ML vs. New Orleans Saints

Best Odds: -105; Caesars
Play To: -115

I attempted to fade the Giants last week, and I do think they’re a prime fade candidate moving forward. This team is nowhere near as good as its record.

That said, they’re certainly not getting much respect from the oddsmakers in this spot. What have the Saints done to deserve being home favorites against anyone, let alone a 3-1-1 team?

New Orleans got off to a hot start offensively this season, but their showing vs. the Lions is not that impressive in retrospect. They were lucky to beat the Ravens in Week 2, and they’ve been mediocre since.

Conversely, their defense has been a disaster. They’re 31st in points and 25th in yards per game allowed, and they’re 27th in EPA per play. If you’re going to be that bad on defense, you better be elite on offense; the Saints don’t fit that description. Ultimately, I’ll take my chances with New York at home.

Tennessee Titans (+7.0) at Indianapolis Colts

Best Odds: -114; Caesars
Play To: -120

Does it feel good to continuously bet on bad teams like the Dolphins and Titans? Absolutely not. There are going to be weeks where it goes terribly. The Titans were completely outclassed by the Texans, so that was clearly a bad pick.

Still, I can’t help but go back to the well this week. For starters, the Colts are not the Texans. They can score some points, but their offense has been fortunate to start the year. They’re 11th in points but merely 24th in yardage, which makes them a prime regression candidate. They’re merely 22nd in EPA per play offensively, so their scoring should dip in the coming weeks.

If that happens, their defense isn’t going to pick up the slack. They’re 22nd in EPA per play on that side of the ball, and they rank in the bottom six in points and yards allowed. Those numbers would all likely be worse if not for 3+ quarters against Athan Kaliakmanis, who was clearly not ready to play for the Commanders.

Ultimately, the Colts don’t deserve to be favored by seven against any NFL team. The Titans are not good – particularly on offense – but they have three losses by less than seven points against the Eagles, Giants, and Ravens. If they can keep things close against those teams, there’s no reason they can’t do it vs. Indianapolis.