New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 3

After nearly winning the MVP award last year, Drake Maye has been unable to build on his momentum this season while severely struggling in the pocket. In a matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Maye will need to quickly get back into form or risk keeping the Patriots comfortably behind on the scoreboard.

New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds For Week 3

• Spread: Jaguars -3 (-105, DraftKings)
• Moneyline: Jaguars (-150, theScore Bet)
• Game Total: 46 (Over -108/Under -112, BetMGM)

It’s been a slow start to the year for Maye, ranking well below league average in QB EPA per play, a stunning drop-off compared to last year’s campaign when he led the league in EPA and CPOE. While the injury to A.J. Brown does handicap the offense, Maye’s lack of individual production is still worth monitoring.

Luckily for the Patriots, the defense has been able to keep them afloat, hovering near the top of the board in defensive DVOA. By holding opponents out of scoring position, the Patriots are able to avoid playing in highly volatile contests until Maye can get his feet under him, keeping the score close enough for them to be competitive.

Until Maye is able to round back into form, oddsmakers have tempered their expectations on New England’s chances of winning on Sunday, listing the Patriots at +3 against the Jaguars. Bettors are also in agreement that we will see a decline in the total number of scoring opportunities, steaming the under as we inch closer to kickoff.

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Prediction & Pick For New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Week 3 Matchup

• The Pick: Jaguars Team Total u24.5 (-125, DraftKings)

Speaking of a decline in scoring opportunities, negative regression looms large over the Jaguars while locked into a battle against a Patriots secondary that is playing at a very high level, a group that ranks in the top-10 in dropback EPA and success rate. By smothering Trevor Lawrence’s passing lanes, the Jags QB will be forced to weave the ball into tight windows, increasing the amount of havoc in his throws.

The Patriots' pressure in the trenches will also force Lawrence to throw on the run at a higher rate, lowering the quality of his throws, which will make it difficult to stay ahead of the sticks. When behind on later downs, the Patriots can blitz the LBs and force Lawrence to get the ball out of his hands quickly after the snap, forcing his pass catcher to fight off contact while comfortably behind the line to gain.

On the ground, Milton Williams will be able to take advantage of an offensive line that ranks in the bottom 15 in run block grade and pressure Bhayshul Tuten in the backfield. When slowed down behind the line of scrimmage, it will be difficult to reach the second level of the defense and create an explosive play, leading to minimal gains with each carry.

With both facets of the offense struggling to get into a groove, the Jaguars will stall out early on in the drive, keeping them out of the red zone. Back the Jags to stay under the team total at no lower than the key number of 24.

Best Player Prop Bet For New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence - u20.5 Pass Completions (-115, bet365)

After a turbulent start to his career, Lawrence has shown why he was heralded as a top overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft by climbing into the top-10 in EPA, CPOE and success rate while averaging 10.4 air yards per throw. His performance is even more impressive when factoring in the minimal protection he receives from his offensive line, a group that ranks 29th in true pass set grade.

Unfortunately for Lawrence, the Patriots' defensive line will be able to consistently collapse the interior, giving him less time in the pocket to operate. While throwing under pressure, the decline in the quality of his passes will allow the Patriots' back end to create disruptions at a higher rate, leading to an uptick in his total number of incompletions.